Last year I hit some home run forecasts that called for dramatic changes in trend before they happened.
But these don’t happen every week, and so also beneficial to be able to consistently hit singles and doubles. Recently I’ve developed the ability to research and engage with proprietary timing models more efficiently, and the result has been a pretty awesome streak of having the weekly view about right. Not everything is perfect but who else is doing this? I reached 7 weeks in a row “mostly right” before having a week while not bad didn’t meet my standards for this purpose.
3/11/2019 Week - Tech Leading Rally
”However, NDX is within a few points of reclaiming its MP and so above all pivots. It is usually not wise to be too bearish if NDX is above all pivots - something to watch in week ahead.
After 2 month rally my most preferred scenario is a consolidation month with next week up then back down after.”
NDX jumped above its MP the next day and off to the races from there.
3/18/2019 Week - Risk Off, Volatility & Bonds Up
”Per other timing work, my bias bearish / risk off for next week, and expect vol to get moving along with TLT and maybe GLD again.”
TLT jumped, volatility spiked, and DJI down (no chart on DJI)
3/25/2019 Week - Stocks Lower Then Bounce
”Given short term charts near oversold, current condition new high new lows, recent outperform in tech and growth, think lower than bounce attempt more likely.”
SPX mildly lower then up.
4/1/2019 Week - Global Stock & Small Cap Rally, Bonds Down
”Preferred scenario global indexes higher, maybe small caps get in gear - will be key tell if RUT can join others above MP. If any weakness would prefer to see in bond (overstretched) and maybe oil & energy.”
All check, only miss oil.
4/8/2019 Week - Stocks Higher
”Timing supportive for upside in coming week. Maybe NDX / SPX will be able to tag 2018 highs.”
Stocks higher, and NDX almost but not quite to 2018 highs.
4/15/2019 Week - Premium Drain
”With April option expiration this should be a drag on further gains. … Oh I think 2018 highs will test soon. But next week ideal for premium drain.”
SPX finished 2 points under the previous week’s close.
4/22/2019 Week - NDX Higher High & SPX 2930-45 Near 4/24
”Simply stated would like to see NDX make decent new high (closing basis) as SPX tests 2930-2945, ideally 4/24 area.”