Total market view

Another abbreviated post.

12/17/2017 Total market view: "Heading into holiday week giving stock bulls the benefit of the doubt especially after the strong rebound last week."

Recent suggestions of TLT long and exit, GDX long, and INDA focus on global indexes all playing out well.

Market closing out the year in strong fashion. Of the 5 USA main indexes only NDX/QQQ showing any trouble at major resistance. VIX and XIV continue to support risk assets though XIV top on 2HR3 not exceeded last week (but didn't drop either). 

As each quarter end approaches, it is often a good time to have some cash ready and watch for good setups. Often these moves are definitive. At the end of September 2017 stocks launched and that turned out to the the deciding move of Q4. I can go on and on with other examples across USA stocks, sectors, global indexes, commodities and currencies. Pay attention to new themes and leaders towards the end of next week and into 2018 Q1. 

Sentiment is often toppy around the holidays but without degradation in other breadth measures like new highs / new lows, and the broader indexes like NYA, VTI and ACWI, market is OK. 

As of last week said 'mildly long' with a small GDX (remaining TLT was cut). Added to INDA as that looks to be the strongest name in the overseas indexes, and KWEB also back above all pivots as of 12/18. 

Bottom line - Stocks continue to ignore resistance. So far pause without any damage on SPY DecR1, DIA between levels, both IWM & VTI holding Q4R1 as support. Only QQQ has mild fade from 2HR2 but hey clearing YR3 does not happen every year. 

Safe havens VIX and XIV supportive of risk unless XIV breaks Q4R3. TLT and AGG weakness helps stocks in my book (yes I know at some point we will see stocks down on rising long term rates); only trouble spots seem to be HYG and LQD with stocks content to ignore credit for now. Despite bounce in GLD and nice pick on GDX these aren't yet above all pivots.

I will change my tune a bit if we see more warning in safe havens but given seasonality thinking 2018 will start with a bang. 

More on the usual sections next week. I also plan a more detailed review of my timing work in the near future.