While showing concern about the market from 4/5+:
4/5/2017 Daily: "Heads up! While not a full fledged caution/trouble alert, we have a semi-one today, with VIX close above the Q2P. I don't mess around with VIX breaking out to upside!"
4/6/2017 Daily: "VIX closed fractionally below all pivots again which removes the semi trouble alert, but move lower is not clear rejection enough to be fully bullish. That said, XIV looks ready to get slammed with clear resistance on the YR2 level - this would be bearish for stocks."
4/7/2017 Daily: "Everyone knows that USA stock indexes were very resilient today, with ES futures finishing ~16 points off overnight lows. Given double whammy of Syria and jobs, does that mean all is OK and Trump bull market can carry on for Q2? No way! VIX and XIV have together sent the clearest warning signal this year, and SPY, DIA and VTI continue to have trouble at their AprPs while IWM is below its Q2P. Only QQQ holds."
4/8/2017 Safe havens: "Main point for stock exposure is that VIX is above Q2P and XIV has both YR2 rejection and AprP break on same day. So to my view, these are looking more threatening for risk assets since before the election."
Portfolio was buying back 4/17 and was fully long by 4/20, maintaining overweight in global indexes.
4/15/2017 Safe havens: "VIX jump above Q2P sounded alarm. ... Already at 1HP but not above. This sets stage for stock bounce next week."
4/16/2017 Total market view: "VIX closing just under its 1HP of 15.99, and some SPX and INDU variations within striking distance of recovering Q2Ps, make a bounce a possibility. Should this happen with VIX reversing lower from 1HP, the portfolio will return more long, continuing to emphasize what has shown pivotal strength during this pullback."
4/16/2017 Total market view: "Though N Korea worries seem to have ebbed over the weekend, there are still political concerns ahead with the French vote. It is possible that VIX remains elevated, or USA stocks bounce and then fail. It is a week to stay nimble, because a hold here could be one of the better buying opportunities of the year; yet in this environment there is the risk of lower before the bottom that matters."
4/17/2017 Daily: "Let's count bullish developments... Safe havens all confirming... sentiment studies indicated enough bearish sentiment over the past 2 weeks... easy to jump back in here with all this pivot action happening simultaneously and VIX below 16 for session and dropping hard all day... This takes portfolio to fast 100% long."
4/20/2017 Daily: "What a difference a day makes. Yesterday I thought the markets were hanging by a thread - but SPY Q2P held in convincing fashion. A lot of items in the bull column today..."
4/20/2017 Daily: "IWM USA small caps are especially interesting here, first time above all pivots since 3/21, a month ago. Tech and semiconductors both back above all pivots as AGG has faded. This is very bullish, and given daily RSIs and long term levels it is possible that some safe havens (AGG, LQD, MUB) just made a very key turn for the year."
4/21/2017 French election risk: "This may be part of the Q2 safe haven bid. ... But I think currency is telling the story here. Euro is in the middle of its range for 2017. It is below its YP and 2HP, but above its Q2P and still above AprP. DXY is weaker by comparison, closer to lows of the year."
4/22/2017 USA main indexes: "Positive action on USA indexes last week as SPY, DIA, IWM and VTI all recovered Q2Ps as leader QQQ back above all pivots. But not as strong as it could be, with SPY, DIA and VTI below AprPs. NYA is the one non confirming index, still below Q2P."
4/22/2017 Politics and charts: "In a bull market, VIX RSI overbought along with pivot tests & holds have been many of the perfect places to buy. These are all pointed out in blue arrows on both pivots and RSIs, with one notable fake-out before the British election in red."
4/23/2017 Total market view: "We will find out Monday whether index & currency calmness was correct given French election. Perhaps after 2 spikes down and rallies (Brexit and USA election), people weren't selling in front this time yet should have been. But I have to go with what the market is doing instead of what I imagine it could do. The fact is by the end of last week nearly all USA main indexes recovered Q2Ps, an overbought VIX was rejected by 1HP, and these were happening as some sentiment meters were recently bearish. These are often the best times to take a stab on risk assets."
4/24/2017 Daily: "The Pivotal Perspective delivers again! The VIX 1HP rejection and multiple Q2P holds last week, in addition to EUR chart looking fine especially compared to DXY, gave me confidence to be fully long. Current portfolio already 100% in and the global indexes all did great with DXY down. Now I think there is the case for some leverage..."