Total market view

4/29/2018 Total market view: "Bottom line - If SPY joins QQQ above its QP then probably it is a "go with" move. But if QQQ drop under its QP to join SPY back in medium term down trends, that also is a "go with" move."

Mixed - QQQ did drop below QP on Monday 4/30, and SPY continued lower into Thursday. But QQQ recovered its QP on Tuesday only to break again and recover again (bit more chop than I'd like on this QQQ QP).

USA main index leaders IWM and QQQ finished the week above all pivots and MAs. SPY, DIA and NYA had (another!) test and huge hold of long term support: HP, D200MA, and NYA reached YP as well. Bulls have the ball. But how far they run is in question - I think upside limited to a recent high or or slightly higher in the range. To put it another way, quarterly Bollinger bands have started to act as resistance for SPY, DIA and NYA, and I don't expect to see another overshoot this quarter. 

With QQQ leading momentum on Friday, it would help broader tech gains for at least one and ideally both of XBI and SMH to get in gear. XBI still a bit stuck but SMH huge rally on Friday as well. 

Global indexes have been largely weaker. This is in part due to recent DXY strength, but also the unwind of 2017 popular trades. SHComp remains very weak below all pivots and below D200MA since mid March; FXI the outlier barely holding above D200MA on close; then EEM, KWEB, INDA, EWZ and RSX all under D200MAs and most of these below QPs & MPs.

USO continues to lead the market, above all pivots since 4/10 and continuing to make higher highs. HR2 / YR2 areas worth watching for possible top but considering the year thus far so few asset classes in healthy uptrends that this gets the benefit of the doubt. 

Bonds continue weak. Despite the trouble in stocks last week, TLT stayed below its MP and so below long term and medium term pivots. AGG, LQD and HYG are also below these levels.

In sum, stocks mixed, commodities up and bonds down as the themes of 2018 continue. Near term I prefer the bull side on stocks but at the same time don't expect this to be the start of a multi month rally. 

USA main indexes - Leaders IWM and QQQ; if playing bull side better to see SPY join these above Q2P.

Sectors of note - SMH back above MP with big hold of D200MA could be worth playing for rally to QP. XLE sideways since mid April but looks like it too may see QR HR area for a decent high.

Global developed - EFA doing fine, also above all pivots; EWG and EWJ just barely under QPs.

Global emerging - See list above. Many of these weaker and still below QPs and MPs.

Safe havens - Odd tick on VIX last week; VXX test and rejection of QP was tell to get long. Bonds weak, metals mixed.

Commodities - Mostly USO, but also trying to keep an eye on DBC and DBA. DBA fractional close above YP but not enough to look like support.

Currency - DXY high on MayR1 but holding above QR1 as support. I prefer a bit higher on DXY though weekly chart reached area of likely struggle. 

Crypto - Leader ETHUSD above all pivots, but BTCUSD still under D200MA, QP and 10K.

Quarterly charts are limiting upside on most USA and global indexes; weekly charts suggest bounce.

New lows jumped recently although new highs just barely holding above.

SPX forward P/E down in 16s again after reaching about 19.5 on the January spike. This 'should' keep bid under market.

Not anywhere near toppy. 

April dates
4/2 - USA main index low, date listed per 3/18 Total market view
4/13 (mild)
4/18 - so far stock high
4/23 - 4/24 close low, 4/25 price low slight miss

Why do I quietly persist in this timing project? Because of 4 dates listed for April (from the end of March!) 

  • one was the low of the month across the board for USA stock indexes, and same date TLT high
  • the date listed as mild was mostly non event, perhaps a small pullback low on SPY and other stocks
  • 4/18 was the high of the month for stocks
  • 4/23 slight miss, 4/24 close low 2 weeks with 4/25 slightly lower lows

Not bad eh? 

May dates
5/6 (could be 5/4 session or 5/6 globex)
5/11 for currencies esp
5/15-16 area looks important change of character