The Pivotal Perspective has been clearly and vocally bearish bonds since the start of the year. It was made easy by this method with various bond classes TLT AGG LQD starting the year below major pivots, as mentioned here on 1/7/2018, as cautioned here later in January using total return technicals, and mentioned subsequently in many Total market views.
The case for a bond bounce bounce consists of:
1. False new low and recovery on TLT last week (price action)
2A. Near test of HS2 and hold (pivots)
2B: ZB cont contract near YS2 tag and hold (big turns on yearly levels and seemingly unstoppable trends can and do end on YR2 / YS2s)
3. Monthly and weekly chart Bollinger bands, moving averages and RSI (other technicals)
4. Crowd positioning (sentiment)
5. Timing with 5/15-16 listed as "important change of character" and so far 5/14 index high and 5/17 bond low.
6. Total return technicals show TLT and AGG on YS1s and holding
Charts for #1-3 and #6 are below. If thinking about a trade an easy trigger would be TLT closing above its WP (weekly pivot).
1 & 2
2B ZB YS2 near test and hold - now other major turns on levels with arrows
3 TLT weekly
Bollinger band divergence low along with holding the range
3 TLT monthly
Holding lower band and rising 100MA