9/17/2017 Total market view: "Bottom line - 6 weeks into the seasonal weaker months of August and September, and SPX had a minor dip of -2.95% and raced back to highs. IWM took the brunt of the hit at -7%. I'm going with the trend until price action forces defensive moves the other way, meaning VIX above 2HP / Q3P, and at least some USA indexes showing rejections of resistance levels and breaking monthly pivots. The questions from here are the global emphasis given their run up and potential $USD stabilization, tech suddenly a bit laggy, and which way TLT moves on its yearly pivot."
Stocks continued uptrends, and safe havens were weaker.
Nearly all stock indexes remain in uptrends, above all pivots. VIX has been below all pivots from 8/22, and XIV above all pivots from 9/11. Safe havens were weaker last week, with TLT breaking its YP and GLD breaking SepP. The environment is bullish for risk assets.
Some key indexes are testing resistance - SPY and VTI are both testing 2HR1s. With sudden strength of IWM, XLF, and oil, as global indexes excepting INDA maintaining strength, I just cannot be that bearish. That said, given pivots, other technicals and valuation I expect to see some selling attempts on SPY in the coming week.
Bottom line - some of the recently suggested rotations into XLF and USO have been working. As long as safe havens are supportive of risk assets, I prefer to be fully invested. However, some selling from SPY long term resistance is possible. If that happens the best place to play weakness for USA likely will be QQQ, and possibly re-entry longs on GLD if above all pivots or TLT if back above its YP.
USA main indexes - SPY testing 2HR1 249.91, and QQQ testing SepP 144.19.
Safe havens - TLT slightly under its YP. XIV also near resistance and could be worth watching again for another trade.
Sectors of note - SMH YR2 rejection but not dropping like INDA with move from the same level.
Global indexes - Excepting INDA, all others that I track above all pivots.
Currency and commodity - DXY 2016 low 91.91. Above that has a shot at rally, though current weekly DXY chart looks ready to drop further.
New highs & new lows on a daily level look great.
VALUATION AND FUNDAMENTALS
SPX sitting on 10 week average of 18X forward P/E, currently 2504.
As it turned out, 7 dates provided for August. 2 were the high and low of the month. 2 were the second high and second low of the month. 2 were milder turns. 1 was non event.
September dates (editing from last week)
9/4-5 - 9/4 mild pullback low
9/13 - QQQ high and TLT low
9/22 (+/-1) more important date possible; so far stock high & safe haven low
9/26 - looks bullish for risk
9/29 - bearish for risk