A collection of some of my best, with charts to show how timely these were. It is one thing to spot a trend change after it shows on the chart. It is another matter to accurately predict massive changes in market behavior within a specific period and be exactly correct. Tweets with dates link to the original tweets.
1. Volatility spike
“Special timing post: volatility cycles picking up 1/25-2/2 maybe through 2/15.”
2. Tech drop
“Oct after that risk off… Sector at risk for Oct drop - surprise - tech.”
3. Major risk off event
“Despite resiliency of main indexes $DJI $NDX and calmness of $VIX, my timing work says market has about 1 more week before a major risk off event likely for the rest of October.”
4. TNX (10 year yield) turn
“$TYX $TNX both near YR2s with plenty of media on a key timing date - stage set for decent reversal lower (yes lower) from here.”
5. December weak
Although not initially bearish for December from the start of Q4, some of my timing work is fractal in nature. Per end of November had shifted more bearish for December.
““Timing… 12/2-12 looks more at risk.”
6. Markets bearish, cash recommendation
“Full on bearish week for indexes… Price action reminiscent of early 2016... which means we could see YPs test on DJI SPX NDX... Nothing wrong with cash here!"
Tweet 12/7 with DJI at 24388, YP tested 12/20 at 23091.
But not a perma-bear calling for EEM strength in Q4! This is addition to being bullish USA indexes for much of 2018, as shown throughout posts on this site.
“Timing in strong favor [for EEM] soon for rest of Q4.”
Chart is EEM / SPY, now +6.5% up from that call for EEM strength. Other emerging markets such as INDA have much more gains as measured against SPY.