Safe havens

The interesting thing is that VIX and XIV are not sharing the enthusiastic start that indexes have enjoyed. Typically VIX and XIV wind up being on the right side of markets.

A strong start of 2018 was expected - OK not this strong, but still, right idea. I was also on top of GDX YP hold in mid December and GLD moving above all pivots on 12/26, and holding those positions. But now I think the next move to watch is XIV / UVXY as a trade against XIV JanR1; triggered if XIV below its weekly pivot next week.

Also, on a larger level, the market and pivots is making it so clear what is to be avoided or at least underweight; these are bond indexes below 1HPs such as TLT, AGG and LQD. AGG even below its YP as well. 

Now, because the yield is impacting the return, long term investors are already getting a clear warning sign of these as an asset class and would do well to check dividend included charts and use a simple YP and weekly 50MA and its slope as a guide to allocations. 

See these tweets if interested:

D: Low on 1/4 some divergence to indexes, but comfortably below all pivots.

13 30 VIX D.png

D: Very near JanR1 tag on the high sof ar. Well above all pivots due to Dec spike, but could be worth watching as r/r trade on UVXY. XIV below a weekly pivot next week would trigger this trade.

D: Low near 1HS1 and rebounded back above YP somewhat. Still well under 1HP, Q1P and JanP.

D: Under all pivots. Low on 1HS1 exact so far.

13 33 AGG D.png

D: Below 1HP, Q1P and JanP.

13 34 LQD D.png

D: Holding large pivot cluster of YP, 1HP, Q1P and JanP all 87.24-50.

13 35 HYG D.png

D: Pointed out on 12/26 as back above all pivots worth a position. Doing well and now easy hold above Q1R1.

13 36 GLD D.png

D: Pointed out on 12/13 as partial position based on YP recovery. 8% up since then.

Even SLV above all pivots due to $DXY plunge.