Cautious and defensive from 7/23/2017

7/23/2017 Total market view: "A lot has changed from my confidently bullish assessment of last week. First, all USA main indexes have reached medium term resistance (ie, Q3 or July pivot resistance levels). Safe havens have strengthened. Sentiment readings are considerably more bullish. Thus, some reaction lower for stocks is a much greater possibility."

7/30/2017 Total market view: "So although larger trends intact, I thought higher odds of reaction lower in stocks. So far the market has been resilient and first drop on 7/27 was bought. I think the market is inviting sellers so we'll see if they show up."

8/6/2017 Total market view: "Bottom line - Larger trends for stocks intact. But with safe havens strengthening, VIX divergence and XIV bang on YR3 it is time to pay attention to risk management."

8/13/2017 Total market view: "But is this another index mini-dip / false break / one day bear wonder like 4/13/2017 or 5/17/2017, each days that looked to be risk-off yet turned out buying opportunities instead? I don't think so - risk-off seems real this time."

Markets agreed with these assessments, as only DIA went higher in August before a broad decline, and all USA main indexes formed a key low (so far) on 8/21.  

This defensive stance was coming after turning confidently bullish early in July.

7/9/2017 Total market view: "Basically with VIX dropping from 2HP / Q3P, yearly levels threatening break yet recovering, pivot holds or recoveries on SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, VTI, VIX and XIV all (!) on 7/7, I'm going with idea of near term bullish resolution."