4/15/2018 Total market view: "With the pivot improvements last week I think the edge has shifted back to the bulls - however, SPY DIA and QQQ remain below Q2Ps so those are the levels to watch. Any moves above QPs are likely buys. Lastly, after crypto bloodbath for several months BTC looks poised to reclaim MP and ETH needs just a nudge to recapture its YP - should this happen, a significant development."
SPY, QQQ and DIA did move above QPs - with leader QQQ making this move on 4/16 - and after brief pop higher failed back down. Cryptos on the move with ETH nearly 14% above its YP.
Stock indexes are continuing in range bound fashion. Long term trends remain up for the USA main indexes, but medium term trends tried to turn fully positive and failed last week. They may try again, or the long term trends could again be tested. SPY and QQQ QPs and DIA MPs are the deciding factors here.
Last year's hot trades XBI and SMH (both ~40% gain in 2017) are sectors especially important for tech / QQQ. Both of these have been flirting with prior major highs (biotech 2015 top, semi-conductors 2000 top) and so far the move is fail. Things could change again but so far SMH leading down and XBI also back near its Q2P.
Similarly, last year's hot India and China trades are different this year. SHComp below all pivots from 4/12, testing YS1 for the third time; FXI, EEM and KWEB below QPs and MPs; INDA below HP and QP; 2018 leader EWZ also currently below QP and MP; RSX pummeled on sanction news to recover somewhat.
The clear downtrend of 2018 is in bonds. Major bond ETFS TLT, AGG, LQD and HYG all started the year under YPs or soon moved below. All except HYG are on long term sells per my adjusted total return technicals system as outlined here. After stabilizing somewhat from February lows, another sharp drop last week across the categories.
Oil and DBC (commodity index ETF) only things that I track to make new highs. XLE got in gear and moved from below all pivots on 4/4 to above all on 4/11 and then continued higher.
Stocks mixed, bonds weak, commodities up. This is a simple take but I suspect these themes are more likely to continue than not.
USA main indexes - Medium term trends in jeopardy; watching SPY and QQQ QPs, DIA MP.
Sectors of note - With many trends of 2017 turning on their head for 2018 it seems likely that last year's biggest gainers SMH and XBI could both be facing more trouble this year. These will also move QQQ. Meanwhile XLE has just in the last 2 weeks had impressive move up from fairly low level.
Global developed - EFA above all pivots, but not EWJ and or EWG.
Global emerging - See pivot status listed above. SHComp below all pivots sitting again on YS1.
Safe havens - VIX 3 days under YS1 seemed to support the bulls last week, only to lift above on Friday. VIX also in mixed condition above its YP HP yet below QP and MP. VXX below its QP so I think the stock drop may have bounce attempt.
Commodities - USO new highs last week above the January highs. Not so many items in that category.
Currencies - DXY looks like it is perking up, back to QP as Euro weakens. DXY is buy above QP.
Weekly charts bounced where they should have (a lot of weekly 50MAs and lower BBs in play in March / April lows) but then several stopped at weekly 20MAs last week. New high new low chart still somewhat in favor of bulls.
Just go to Yardeni's blue angels for a sense of how much the tax cut and earnings jump has shifted SPX valuations. It seems this 'should' keep a bid under the market unless things get stupid with China trade etc.
Recent bearish extremes working off.
4/2 - USA main index low, date listed per 3/18 Total market view
4/18 - so far stock high