Timing dates 2018 Q3

Another post on my timing system. Recent post here.

At the end of each month I generate dates more likely of notice for the next month. Here are the last 3 months of those dates. Very occasionally I will add a date as the month unfolds but if I do that it is always in advance in the Total market view.

July dates first posted 6/24/2018 Total market view:

7/4 (then edited to 7/3 on 7/1 TMV)
7/10 (then edited to 7/10-11 on 7/1 TMV)
7/27 (added in 7/22 TMV with specific call for volatility spike)

August dates posted 7/29/2018 TMV

8/6-8 strong
8/27 added

September dates posted 8/26/2018 TMV


I haven’t been doing direction on these too much (as I used to do at a hedge fund) but occasionally will add things like “prefer up for risk” as I did for 9/20-21 in the 9/16 TMV, or “volatility spike” for 7/27 (both nailed btw).

So without further comment, here is a simple SPX chart with lines on all these dates. For all dates I’ll count +/- 1 as a close hit but no more; +/-2 is too wide.

7/3, pullback low and low of month 7/2
7/10-11, pullback low 7/11
7/25, high of month
7/27, volatility spike 7/27-28 and stock pullback low 7/28
8/3, pullback low and low of month for SPX
8/6-8, trading high 8/7
8/17-20, non event
8/27, close but not quite, 8/29 key high of month
9/6, pullback low and low of month 9/7
9/13, non event
9/20-21, up for risk as called and potential trading top

All timing dates and timing model calls will go on Twitter from here…

Timing notes follow up

This is a follow up to a post from June. I'm going to review the Twitter timing call and the timing dates for July and August that are posted in each Total market view. 

Twitter 6/19/2018: "6/26 - 8/10 momentum trades meaning $IWM and $FAANG should take a hit or be sideways at most; additionally some chance of wildcard haywire event like summer 2011." [Follow up tweet same day] "If I have misjudged the damage potential then here is how it is likely to be off: 7/3H & 7/25-27H."

Follow up 7/24: "My initial read of timing cycle 6/26-8/10 off, but that is also why i listed bullish variation with 7/3H (eh) and 7/25-27H - on track (could be anytime now). Chart comments here and on my site convinced bullish from 7/9+ looking for $SPX 2020-30. Ding!"

OK, one by one:
"6/26-8/10 Momentum trades meaning IWM and FAANG should take a hit or be sideways at most."
Not bad. From 6/25 close to 8/10 IWM about +1.5%, though QQQ (not mentioned in tweet) much better with +5%. From date of tweet 6/19 the sideways call was better. That said, RUT IWM has been stuck under its YR2 2018 high the entire time. On track though for summertime not that notable a call.

"Some chance of wildcard haywire event like summer 2011." 
OK folks this did happen to $FB the first of the FAANGs with a -20% plunge off highs exactly in this window. By 8/10 NFLX also had double digit decline through reached greater than -20% after 8/10. Who else called for potential of -20% swoon in FAANG in June to happen in a specific window? Didn't think so. 

China momentum tech had even worse drop during this period, but I didn't mention in the tweet so FWIW.

"If I have misjudged the damage potential then here it is likely to be off: 7/3H and 7/25-27H."
Just keep in mind that post was 6/19 and yup NDX 7/25 top. Nailed that. All my chart commentary such as Daily comments and Total market views was emphatically bullish after the first week of July when charts made it clear the bullish variation playing out.

IWM and FAANG take a hit or sideways at most - 5 of 10, IWM just above sideways and 2 big hits in FAANG.
Wildcard haywire event - 9 of 10, not all but FB -20% and NFLX not far behind; China tech also walloped.
If off then 7/3H and 7/25-27H - 9 of 10, 7/3 not a high but 7/25 bang on 5 weeks in advance of the date.
Total score 7.5

Not completely perfect but the FB swoon and NFLX drop is really notable considering the exact call for FAANG wildcard drop within an exact 7 week window. I believe that is the largest single day decline in market cap $ in stock market history - DING!

Now to timing dates - listed in advance in each Total market view.

July dates first posted 6/24/2018 Total market view:
7/4 (then edited to 7/3 on 7/1 TMV)
7/10 (then edited to 7/10-11 on 7/1 TMV)
7/27 (added in 7/22 TMV with specific call for volatility spike)

7/3 - pullback low across USA indexes including the close low of the 2nd half so far
7/10-11 - mild pullback low across USA indexes
7/25 - DING, NDX high, EEM and many other emerging market bounce highs
7/27 - Vol spike idea correct but VIX bit higher 7/30 +1 still counts as hit in my work (but not +/-2)

August dates posted 7/29/2018 TMV

August dates
8/6-8 strong

8/2 - stock pullback low (low of month SPY and QQQ), DING
8/6-8 strong - SPY high of month 8/7, DING
8/17-20 TBD, seems like setting up for non event or stock high

Is it any wonder that an open minded hedge fund sought my opinion on markets as a full time dedicated consultant? (Fund sadly closed late 2015 after generating spectacular returns in 2013.) The techniques generating these calls are different than almost everyone else in the industry. I'm an alternative analyst with an eclectic yet surprisingly accurate take on markets as evidenced above and additionally throughout Featured posts. I'm calling the market alongside the best of anyone and doing this very part time to boot. What could I do full time? 

Notes on some timing calls

I used to do quite a lot of work on timing the market. This landed me a gig at a hedge fund where for one year at least, percentage return was among the top in the world (triple digits running over 100M). Alas due to a host of other issues the fund closed and I have moved on to something else. Some of my methods are rather eclectic to say the least, and despite performing a truly top tier level another door hasn't opened so to speak. 

Real accuracy takes a lot of research and monitoring and I just don't have the time for this full project these days. However I do take a stab stronger timing dates for turns in each Total market view, and some of these have been remarkably correct. Here's a pretty nifty month from August 2017 when 6 of 7 dates listed were key turns, including the low and high for the month and the second low and second high. Oh yeah all timing dates posted at the end of the month prior - and no fudging.

Sometimes my timing work is in the background of a call without specifically mentioning it - for example, this post calling for a bond bounce on 5/20 (1 day off the low of year for TLT and the one first post on bonds all year) mentioned timing in an offhand way with technicals emphasized. But maybe it is the timing that is calling my attention enough to the technicals to write about them. :)

Very occasionally I have taken to twitter on these and that is what I am going to review in this post, my timestamped timing calls. 

Oil via USO and CL1 (cont contract) doesn't have much going for it technically except recovery of slightly rising daily 50 moving avg
And a maybe higher low compared to June lows. Timing cycles, for the record, point to upside surprise from here through as late as 10/22

Rating - 7 (out of 10).
Oil did start jumping from relative low levels. The only thing off here was that the rally was far from over, and you could say out-performance continued into early November. I might have revisited that in a Total market view, but I didn't tweet into the thread.

Next specific timing call: Rates via $TYX and $TNX more potential to breakout up, ie $TLT breakdown, 10/19-11/14.

Rating - 3.5.
Initially this looked on track with a new multi-month low on 10/26, but after that TLT bounced back to a multi-week high by 11/7. But jeez this was spot on for LQD and HYG, with LQD dropping down after a 10/13 high to a multi-month low right on schedule on 11/10; and HYG playing along with a 10/23 high and very sharp drop into 11/14-15 lows. Right idea bout rates moving, just wrong vehicles. This is what I mean by what it takes for real accuracy - sometimes I can get a theme right but in this game that isn't enough - you have to have the right vehicle. 

Special timing post: volatility cycles picking up 1/25-2/2 maybe through 2/15. This does not mean i am saying stocks down from here. There are a lot of YR1s to watch though. Yup back in UVXY already.

Since vol extended past 2/2, think instability in general through 2/15, & 2/9 looking like key date. With YPs along with D200MAs testing and holding on both ES and YM near term move most likely furious bounce that then fails and sets up lower or divergence lows into 2/9.

Rating - 11
Honestly - does it get any better than these two? Nailed the volatility spike and then what stands as price low of the year in most major indexes. Hello hedge funds? I have made this sort of call many times. Just based on these two alone one would think some funds might be watching or at least interested in my methods, but if they are I haven't heard about it. 

Special timing post: whatever move begins 5/15-16 could dominate markets through mid-June at least and possibly later. Prefer stocks to fade and begin multi week decline, but this timing cycle historically does more damage in existing downtrends.

Rating - 6.5
This wasn't too bad actually. The historical pattern repeated and I should have just kept to that. instead of thinking stock drop. Several risk assets in existing downtrends on 5/14 actually did go quite lower into mid-June: 

BTCUSD 5/13/18 close 8683, 6/12 low 6436, -26%
EWZ 5/11/18 close 40.94, 6/7 low 31.28, -24%
SHComp 5/11 close 3163, 6/18 low 2871, -9%
These three were below D200MA, and in case of BTC and SCHomp, already below YP as well. 

EEM 5/11 close 47.40, 6/19 low 43.41, -8% (still above D200 but below D100 and a sharply falling D50)

Didn't start as severe a downtrend but still lower highs and moved below Q2Ps
FXI 5/11 close 48.16, 6/19 low 45.78, -5%
EWG 33.15 to 30.51, -8%
There are several others like this with garden variety -5% pullbacks.

And let's not forget TLT low of year on 5/17/2018! So that counts as "change of character" that I mentioned in a Total market view for this 5/15-16 area. 

So what is next? Momentum trades, so that means small caps and FAANG most of all, should take a hit or go sideways at most starting 6/26 for the next few weeks at least and possibly through 8/10. Additionally, in this timing window there is also some chance of a wildcard haywire event that could be quite severe like summer 2011. And these are going on Twitter too.



Timing model review

Dedicated readers will see a section in my Total market view posts, usually near the end, that I don't say much about called Timing. You can also search keywords for "Timing model" and see a few dedicated posts before I shifted to a more condensed format. 

This post is a review of the timing dates - all of which were published well in advance. Maybe members of the math, statistics and back-testing crowd who happen to be reading this blog can give me some official numbers on whether the results are random, or much too unusual to be pure chance.

Here is an SPY chart with all timing dates marked. Most of the time I did not specify bias of high or low, and simply viewed them as turn possibilities. Sometimes were was a window of a few dates clustered. So, single green lines mean 1 day; a green followed by a red means green was the start of the period and red was the end. Most of the windows were 2-3 trading days, with just a couple going beyond that.

From 2/11 when I started this project through end of October, I have listed 52 trading days (if I counted correctly) as higher chance of turn areas. Over the same period there have been 184 trading days. This means I have selected 28% of all trading days as higher than likely turns. But if we extend -1 & +1 from each day, then obviously it extends quite a bit, and maybe it is just chance.

From other view, though, I have selected 23 1-3+ day periods where we are more likely to see a turn. 

In these 52 days & 26 periods we have:

2/11-15 key stock index low of year, and oil low of year both 2/11
4/22 stock trading high -2 days arrived on 4/20
6/7-9 major stock high in middle of window 6/8
6/28 major stock low on 6/27 -1 day
8/19-22 major stock high (SPX high of year) 8/23 +1 day
9/12 medium stock index low of September exact
9/23 key stock index lower high 9/22 -1 trading day
10/7-10 key stock index high, and NDX high of year thus far, on 10/10

Then several days turned out to be minor highs or lows. A few were pure misses. 

I did not get the 5/19 stock index pullback low, 7/6-8 GLD & TLT high, or the 9/7 lower high in stocks. But I'd say all the other important turns on SPY have happened on or near timing dates.

This method cannot really be back-tested. It is nothing to do with what most of you are thinking. Not trading day or calendar day counts. Nothing Fibonacci. And remember, aside from starting on 2/11 I have usually published these days near the end of the month for the following month. That means all advance. Yup, I used to do this for a hedge fund too :) If I had more time, then it is possible to get direction (ie high or low) in addition to timing the turns. 

So if you are paying more attention now, the next date for October is 10/19. 

Maybe now some of you are starting to get it: pivots + other technicals + valuation & fundamental basics + sentiment + timing = very high chance of being on right side of the market; having exposure to leaders; avoiding, hedging or shorting what is going down; and having high reward & low risk opportunities for leveraged trading. Any funds out there seeking better performance to retain their AUM?

Timing model review

Near the end of May I published dates for June. 

"So basically 6/7-9, 6/13-14, then 6/28 mild."

How did it turn out?

6/8 stock index high across the board
6/16 safe haven trading high (TLT, GLD) +2 trading days
6/27 stock index low, maybe major; possible safe haven trading top 6/27-29

Not bad eh? This took me a few minutes near the end May to analyze. But the ability to do that was quite a process; I have been tinkering with this project for a long time. But it is not backtest-able. It is about the furthest one can get from "fundamentals". It is not based on anything else 99.99999% of market participants are doing. Yet with a bit more time, it would be more possible to get direction and further accuracy on these turns. Alas, people are not really interested in something that is truly innovative.

Oh yes, I assure you, for the handful of readers on this blog, I could not possibly be bothered to edit something in hindsight, making it all up.

Anyway, FWIW, keep an eye on these days for July (as I first posted in the last total market view here). 

7/29-8/5 strong


Timing model

Last timing model post from 4/30 gave these dates for May:

May (easier than April)
5/9 Model A & B
5/26-27 Model A
5/31 Model B

5/9 turned into 5/10 high (+1 trading day)
5/26-27 high, 5/31? 

But if market keeps steaming higher then 5/26-31 will look like non event or a miss. We'll see. My bias at the end of April was that at least one of the two areas would be lows, and that was wrong. It takes more work to get direction on these, and I just don't have the time. 

Model B 6/7 medium
Model A 6/8-9 medium

Model A 6/13-14 medium strong

Model B 6/28 mild

So basically 6/7-9, 6/13-14, then 6/28 mild. I would like at least one of the first two areas to be highs, but by record on bias on these not great this year. 

Timing model

Check tag for prior versions, or the last post here in mid April. This is just a kind of experiment that I am doing. 

April dates & review
3/30-4/1 Model A&B combination turn (dates listed from early March) resulted in minor stock index trading high via SPY etc, and a pullback GLD low. 

4/8 Model A&B (also listed from March) resulted in 4/7 SPY low and 4/7 TLT high; so decent hit -1 day.

Then we got into a choppy period where A&B did not line up.

4/15-18 Model A; 4/18 near SPY highs but not quite, with 2 days of slightly higher stall before drop
4/22 Model B; basically a miss
4/28-29 Model A&B; possible SPY low, TLT high, GLD high, oil high?, DXY low? We'll see. If SPY needs to be up next week and above its MayP for that 4/28-29 to stick as a turn. 

May (easier than April)
5/9 Model A & B
5/26-27 Model A
5/31 Model B




Timing model

This may be hocus-pocus but check the tag and you'll see perhaps not entirely that. 

Model A 3/1-11 directional move
Model B 3/8 turn
Resulted in 3/1-11 overall up for stock indexes with 3/8 pullback low; 3/11 remains key pullback low in TLT

Model A 3/18-22 high, alerted in post 3/15
Resulted in 3/21-22 stock index close & price highs

Model A 3/31
Model B 4/1, first posted 3/7 (yup check the tag)
Result 4/1 stock index high

Model A&B 4/8 turn (first posted 3/7 per Model B 4/9 Saturday) 
Result 4/7 low -1 from 4/8 date or -2 if you are picky and counting from Saturday

Now we are into choppy period with several dates on both models which doesn't always happen.

Model A 4/15-18
Model B 4/22
Model A 4/28
Model B 4/29 combine for 4/28-29 turn area

OK so I know this sounds like the impossible that a few Nobel Laureates have won prizes disproving but again I'll say the dates for April were posted in early March and so far we have bang on trading high and pullback low -1 trading day. So let's see what happens with the others for the month, and before May starts I'll post those for the entire month in advance too. Next month won't have turn dates every week either. 

Timing model

For previous posts check the tag. As I have stated several times, rough work in progress and feel free to ignore. 

Big picture idea is:
1. Pivots, ideally long term and medium term levels, AND
2. Other technical factors such as volume, RSI, MA trend analysis, BBs, AND
3. Timing, AND
4. Sentiment extreme, AND
5. Fundamental valuation level

Will all be on the big turns. Of course indexes bumping up against yearly pivots will do it right there, so you can toss the other stuff if you want. But for what it is worth all of these did line up at the 2/11-12 low and that is the big turn that mattered for most stocks, oil and bonds. Really a lot came together - yearly pivot holds and/or breaks & recovery on many asset classes; RSI, breadth and other divergence compared to January lows; timing model; significant sentiment extremes reached (search "sentiment" in tool on FAQ page then go through tags) and lastly SPX forward p/e at the time was very likely about 15. 

I started writing about timing just a couple months ago and mentioned it near that 2/11-15 turn. There are two models, A and B. Sometimes they agree, sometimes not. Sometimes timing is there but interpretation is off. Or maybe market moves and ignores my timing idea :)

2/11-15 was both A and B turn and there was a huge result. 

Model A 3/1-11 directional move, thought volatility ie down but flipped to positive early in the window Model B 3/8, so originally thought 3/8-11 would be low. Turned out minor pullback in larger uptrend. Timing there, interpretation off. Did not result in big cost as pivots had shifted to bounce scenario from late February. Markets were heading into Dow and SPX YPs at the time and there was 1 day SPY / ES short that was quickly cut. 

Model A 3/18-22. Pretty clear high. This was part of the VIX futures 1 day hedge idea also because on YS1 at the time, and that really worked if you took gains when I recommended. 

Model A 3/31, Model B 4/1. You will see I first mentioned 4/1 date on 3/9 post. I thought some turn here but USA stock indexes were not running into levels so did not play this too much. But NKY broke down as I had been watching for weeks anyway and TLT started month above all pivots and just could not ignore either of those developments.  

Model A 4/8, Model B 4/8-9 strong. Not sure, as of Monday I thought maybe stock low, Tuesday maybe high, now back to low? Safe havens jumping today in pre-market. 

Model A 4/15 strong, 4/29 also strong
Model B 4/22 and 4/29 both medium

Interpretation is 4/8 area possible turn, 4/15? and 4/22?, 4/29 area good chance for larger turn. I know skeptics will say what? Timing turns once a week through this month? Whatever! Sometimes they are more spread out (like 1/19 and next 2/11-15) but let's just see what happens on these dates. 

Timing model

Last update 3/24Rough work in progress. 

Model A 3/18-21 delivered minor high. At the time I thought the way to play a small reaction was VIX futs since on a YS1, TLT long again on major levels, XLF short since lagging and on levels, possibly FXI short to hedge out EEM.

Model A 3/31
Model B 4/1 mild

So some chance of turn here in this window, with 4/8 being the next inflection point (Model B 4/9 "strong" date is Saturday). But these could both turn out to be highs, or some stock high here and pullback into 4/8 could also happen. SPY, DIA etc reached levels but we'll have new monthly pivots starting Friday so without levels I will be much more reluctant to adjust positioning based on timing idea alone. Hopefully there will be setups on new Q2Ps in some indexes, but if you are following along you are mostly fully invested depending on management of GLD / GDX from yesterday. 

Keep in mind 2/11-15 the big turn on the year was both Model A and Model B turn but I had just started writing about it. So sometimes these work. But I can have wrong idea as I misjudged Model A 3/1-11 move, although did point to inversion possibility early in that period, with Model B 3/8 being a pullback within that. 

In other words, sometimes Model A & B combine to produce nice turns in the same direction, but it is also possible that Model A is up and B down which complicates the matter. This is just a rough sort of experiment I am doing and feel free to ignore and focus on pivots. Maybe after several turns on pre-published timing dates it will warrant your attention. :)


Timing model

Last update 3/15: Model A (rough work in progress, no strong opinions) had "next possible inflection point "3/18-21." This one not too bad with SPY and other stock index high area 3/17-22, SPX close high 3/21, oil high 3/18, VIX low 3/18, DXY low 3/17-18. 

Now what? No strong opinion regarding next week. 3/31 possible turn area but no opinion on direction.

Model B generates strong, medium or mild turn possibilities. No change to previous comments from 3/15 so:

4/1 mild (so near model A 3/31)
4/9 strong
4/22 medium
4/29 medium

This site and my tactics are mostly pivots. Basically this means if we see big levels on 4/9 it might be worth putting more on the trade. That would have been the right idea on the 2/11-15 turn area with all those yearly levels. If you bought DIA that worked well. If you bought DIA and oil as suggested that was even better, following with EEM and other oil related ETFs EWZ & RSX the following week. But if you bought IWM and/or HYG, or simply put more on DIA and oil than just starter positions, then that would have been even more gains. 

Timing model

Timing is part of my total market view, which I have gradually fleshed out here with posts on sentiment and more recently valuation (go to FAQ and search, or use the tags). Primary focus for positioning always pivots until i see them stop working, (note, pivots on INDU have worked well since the 1920s). 

Two models, related to but independent of each other. 

Model A pointed to increasing volatility 3/1-11, so this is "inversion" as they say, or wrong conclusion. I mentioned inversion possibility on 3/3 here. Main Model A point from here is that a 3/11 high could be bearish for the market. Other than that, 3/18-21 next possible inflection point. Model A very rough at this point, and I am not doing the proper amount of work on it for higher accuracy, so I don't really hold a strong opinion. Due to Model A I was expecting a weaker first half for 2016, but certainly did not expect January to begin the way it did. Once in play, however, the move to cut or short stocks, then buy bonds and gold, worked extremely well.

Model B has been hot this year, generated 3 dates for Q1: 1/19 which resulted in 1/20 low, 2/11-15 which was the big low, and then 3/9. As the year was unfolding I thought 3/9 would also be another low. On the daily SPY chart it does look like 3/8-10 pullback in larger uptrend. So this one less consequential, but we really won't know that until more time passes. If SPX rallies to 2050+ it will look like an important pullback. If the market falls back and undercuts that low then minor pullback before a larger top. 

Next Model B dates:

4/1 mild
4/9 strong
4/22 medium
4/29 medium

It is a bit annoying to have only 3 dates in the entire Q1 and then 4 in April but sorry I cannot order it around the way I would like to have it. Of these 4/9 gets the focus due to strength and perhaps 4/22 and 4/29 will combine for a turn between them. 

Of course you can completely scratch the timing if you prefer and focus on pivots, although had I fully taken in timing, sentiment and valuation on 2/11-15, I could have emphasized buy side even more than I did. That said, INDU and oil buys 2/12, then emerging market buys the following week, worked out very well :)

Timing model update

I've written a few posts about this. Timing is one of four components of my total market view, but I've been doing a very fast and rough version of this work this year. These dates don't get all the turns, but so far the 2 dates on Model B have been very near or on the major lows. 

Possible Model B turn dates (established from start of year) have been: 

1/19, turned into 1/20 low. I didn't write anything at the time about the timing model.

2/11-15, turned into major low! I wrote about this in more detail here.

3/9 area has been on the map since then, although I also thought after 3/1 or so we would see more volatility per Model A into 3/11 which so far has been off. Too bad! Get what you pay for here, free and very part time... although it would been just utterly fantastic to have suspected this 3/9-11 area as a high in advance (instead of low as I planned) because then perhaps I would have pushed the longs from 2/12 even more aggressively. If anyone wants to compensate for full time market consulting, I'm available! :)

So, the next dates on Model B after this 3/9 area are:

4/1 mild
4/9 strong
4/22 medium
4/29 medium

Timing model update

This is a rough sort of work in progress and i am not spending too much time on it. The two Model B dates this year (established in December, honest) have been 1/19 (1 day from low) and 2/11-15 (also a low), and the next is 3/9. Given the year I thought that the 3/9 date may also be a low but if that is the case we should see the market dropping fairly soon. 

Model A also pointed to increasing volatility from 3/1-11. 

So, either we are seeing inversion and up, especially if we see any major index (ES, YM, DIA, etc as pointed out several times this week). This kind of thing is annoying with the cycle stuff, and feel free to ignore this portion entirely as the pivots work well enough on their own. Or we are about to get a clean rejection and move down to test the MarPs. This would likely coincide with safe havens lifting and clear major resistance.

I still kind of prefer the latter but as usual let pivots guide positioning. If ES trades above 1988 I will scratch bearish bias and start thinking more about inversion ie 3/9 area high. 

Timing model update

I've written about the 4th component of my total market view, timing, here and here

Per the most recent post from 2/19, "we are entering a wide period where we "should" see more volatility, starting as early as today 2/19 but increasingly likely 3/1-11, then possibly continuing into 3/23. Predicting volatility now seems like an obvious point but let's see what happens especially in that March window. Bias is that indexes slide back down and bust the recent lows and we see some moments of real panic. 

Second in Model B (unrelated to A system), the next turn date (ie date series after 2/11-15) is 3/9. So far the turn window areas this year (1/19, 2/11-15) have both been lows. At some point one of these will turn into a high, but with stocks below all pivots, safe havens jumping, and expecting volatility I am again shooting for a low area there."

I keep to these conclusions. This means a bearish short term top is as early as today or at late as 2/29; if 3/1+ is bearish stocks and/or oil then we could see a very sharp drop into 3/9-11 then continuing into 3/23. But, the market is doing OK as key indexes held FebPs and are on track to open above MarPs as safe havens fade a bit. A bullish trading top extends to 3/3-4. Either way I am expecting a top in this window, 2/26-3/4, then a drop. 

But I'll let March pivots guide the positioning. Given bias, i will recommend a pretty sharp bear playbook if we see stock indexes below MarPs ie, nearly all in safe havens and short, perhaps saving just 3 DIA longs very near the low from 2/12. But not until then, and if MarPs hold as support for stocks then we can continue the bounce playbook currently about neutral 30% safe havens, 10% shorts, 40% stock longs, a bitcoin and some cash on sidelines. 

Timing model

This site is about pivots, because that is the best way to get the most bang, meaning gains and being on the right side of the market, for the least buck, meaning time and mental energy. I think this technical strategy can be complemented by other factors: fundamental research (which takes a Bloomberg for me to do what I prefer), and then also by sentiment analysis (which I have done a few times), and timing. 

If you are reading you might be open to the idea. Although generally considered to be fallacy that doesn't stop people like Tom DeMark or companies like Raymond James, who both mention timing models and get paid quite a lot for them. So, this is my version of that sort of thing. At this point I cannot do the ultra high level of detailed tracking that high accuracy requires, but still, once in a while I'll hopefully be able to supplement the basic pivots technique with something useful. 

Like the timing model 2/11-15 turn added to the chance of a bounce, and given the structure thought to play it this time, and the site recommended speculative buy on INDU / DIA on 2/12 based on holding YS1; then suggested 3 different emerging markets to try on a close above a February pivot (EEM, RSX, EWZ). Generally it is not my favorite strategy to buy what is below all pivots or even what is above just 1 monthly pivot yet still below yearly, half-year and quarterly, as these are much more important levels. But we also had sentiment extremes, and at the time, DXY was below all pivots so I thought the emerging market trades were squeezy. Not a huge move but a small pop, and if you had the idea to hold if USA confirmed bullish and take profits if it didn't, you had a small swing gain on these 3 trades. 

Two Timing points. In Model A, we are entering a wide period where we "should" see more volatility, starting as early as today 2/19 but increasingly likely 3/1-11, then possibly continuing into 3/23. Predicting volatility now seems like an obvious point but let's see what happens especially in that March window. Bias is that indexes slide back down and bust the recent lows and we see some moments of real panic. 

Second in Model B (unrelated to A system), the next turn date (ie date series after 2/11-15) is 3/9. So far the turn window areas this year (1/19, 2/11-15) have both been lows. At some point one of these will turn into a high, but with stocks below all pivots, safe havens jumping, and expecting volatility I am again shooting for a low area there.

Timing the market

Most of Wall Street says it is impossible to time the market and don't bother to try. In some ways this is correct. It is difficult to time the market, and most people who do so, especially casually, will wind up losing money (or not making as much) by doing so. However, whenever we invest in any asset class we are making a choice or series of choices, and those choices are made in particular moments in time. If no one was "timing" the market, who was selling USA stocks for an entire year in 2015 at the highs? Clearly, someone who didn't want to be owning them in 2016. 

I believe it is possible to make informed investment (and trading) decisions about positioning using:

1. Technical factors - Hence this site, where from its inception at the end of September I have shown over the last 4 months a method that is doing a lot better than most. Long USA early October; short oil and short FXI, EEM, etc various points in November; reducing and then completely cutting USA longs early January, possible to short or at least fully hedge; TLT long and GLD long both in January. Not bad eh? (Any hedge funds interested in collaborating? I *have* done this sort of thing for a fund professionally for years you know. But some things end due to other reasons.) 

2. Fundamentals - Yes, I know fundamentals move the market. The kind of analysis I like to do requires a Bloomberg which I don't have right now. If anyone wants to provide I'm happy to accept :) Perhaps more on my fundamental ideas in another post.

3. Sentiment - I did a detailed sentiment study here on 2/4. This is admittedly a bit more "fuzzy" than the technicals (especially pivots, simply above or below without any question) and the fundamentals, where there are all kinds of price modeling techniques. That said, relative highs and lows in sentiment studies are often near turns in the market. This is possible to combine with pivots for superior results. But it does take some time to do this. And alone, sentiment does not give buy or sell signals nearly as reliably as pivots. 

4. Timing - OK, I'll admit, I've put a lot of thought into this project. Let's start with a basic version I had coming into this year with the NYA monthly chart. 

I just didn't think a market that had been up 6 years in total and a 1 year topping process would be done with a correction in a few months. Base case 1 year process to match the other moves would take us to weaker first half 2016. Now, I didn't expect that sharp a drop in the first days of the year, but who did? At minimum I thought the market was in a digestion phase and would not go higher until consolidating for a year. But pivots said to shift convincingly bearish on 1/6-7 so far remain very bearish. Also,  considering  the presidential factor of last years of second term president being shaky for markets (2000, 2008) and stage was set. Then add in FOMC, oil, China, etc. 

But here for those reading I will mention another proprietary timing model. It had a 1/19 turn in January (didn't discuss at the time), and anyway pivots made the rebound clear on 1/20, but for a date to have coming into the month that is not too bad. The next window is 2/11-15, but this isn't as strong a turn as 1/19. Maybe, if ES holds the FebS1 at 1908, we will get some kind of bounce; or a flush to next level Q1S2 at 1776 also possible. But remember, it is below all pivots and same proprietary timing model is expecting even more volatility in March.

So, timing model call - possible low area here 2/11-15, but with USA stocks below all pivots this is not the time to buy. It might be worth a partial exit on TLT or GLD, or partial short cover on recent adds from 2/2 (when USA indexes fell back under all pivots). Again, to repeat: proprietary timing says more volatility on the way in March regardless of any bounce we may or may not have here. But if a lot of FebS1s hold in this 2/11-15 window, or if ES flushes down to Q1S2 1776 and holds there, watch for a bounce.