This is a follow up to a post from June. I'm going to review the Twitter timing call and the timing dates for July and August that are posted in each Total market view.
Twitter 6/19/2018: "6/26 - 8/10 momentum trades meaning $IWM and $FAANG should take a hit or be sideways at most; additionally some chance of wildcard haywire event like summer 2011." [Follow up tweet same day] "If I have misjudged the damage potential then here is how it is likely to be off: 7/3H & 7/25-27H."
Follow up 7/24: "My initial read of timing cycle 6/26-8/10 off, but that is also why i listed bullish variation with 7/3H (eh) and 7/25-27H - on track (could be anytime now). Chart comments here and on my site convinced bullish from 7/9+ looking for $SPX 2020-30. Ding!"
OK, one by one:
"6/26-8/10 Momentum trades meaning IWM and FAANG should take a hit or be sideways at most."
Not bad. From 6/25 close to 8/10 IWM about +1.5%, though QQQ (not mentioned in tweet) much better with +5%. From date of tweet 6/19 the sideways call was better. That said, RUT IWM has been stuck under its YR2 2018 high the entire time. On track though for summertime not that notable a call.
"Some chance of wildcard haywire event like summer 2011."
OK folks this did happen to $FB the first of the FAANGs with a -20% plunge off highs exactly in this window. By 8/10 NFLX also had double digit decline through reached greater than -20% after 8/10. Who else called for potential of -20% swoon in FAANG in June to happen in a specific window? Didn't think so.
China momentum tech had even worse drop during this period, but I didn't mention in the tweet so FWIW.
"If I have misjudged the damage potential then here it is likely to be off: 7/3H and 7/25-27H."
Just keep in mind that post was 6/19 and yup NDX 7/25 top. Nailed that. All my chart commentary such as Daily comments and Total market views was emphatically bullish after the first week of July when charts made it clear the bullish variation playing out.
IWM and FAANG take a hit or sideways at most - 5 of 10, IWM just above sideways and 2 big hits in FAANG.
Wildcard haywire event - 9 of 10, not all but FB -20% and NFLX not far behind; China tech also walloped.
If off then 7/3H and 7/25-27H - 9 of 10, 7/3 not a high but 7/25 bang on 5 weeks in advance of the date.
Total score 7.5
Not completely perfect but the FB swoon and NFLX drop is really notable considering the exact call for FAANG wildcard drop within an exact 7 week window. I believe that is the largest single day decline in market cap $ in stock market history - DING!
Now to timing dates - listed in advance in each Total market view.
July dates first posted 6/24/2018 Total market view:
7/4 (then edited to 7/3 on 7/1 TMV)
7/10 (then edited to 7/10-11 on 7/1 TMV)
7/27 (added in 7/22 TMV with specific call for volatility spike)
7/3 - pullback low across USA indexes including the close low of the 2nd half so far
7/10-11 - mild pullback low across USA indexes
7/25 - DING, NDX high, EEM and many other emerging market bounce highs
7/27 - Vol spike idea correct but VIX bit higher 7/30 +1 still counts as hit in my work (but not +/-2)
August dates posted 7/29/2018 TMV
8/2 - stock pullback low (low of month SPY and QQQ), DING
8/6-8 strong - SPY high of month 8/7, DING
8/17-20 TBD, seems like setting up for non event or stock high
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