Last week: "...a bit tougher to have bias with both TLT and GLD more extended, and 2 major indexes NDX 100 cash and NYA both just above YP levels that could easily try to bounce again. ... I will side with the VIX - above Q2P means trouble, hold safe havens and possibly reduce stock index exposure further; below Q2P with safe havens fading means add risk back on."
I find VIX to be usually right on the market, but not last week - Thursday clear down bar from Q2P on VIX, meaning green light for risk back on, only to get slammed on Friday. That said it wasn't hard to spot trouble and if you cut DIA longs near the JunP you had a better exit at least how it looks currently.
Safe havens are soaring, as 2 USA mains broke long term levels last week to join the RUT / IWM that is already below. That is bearish action. While I use the term "bear market" very carefully, and will keep to the idea that the bull is more likely than bear with INDU above its YP of 17048, it is also appropriate to be significantly less long stocks with only 2 of 5 USA indexes in long term uptrends, and all 5 below JunPs.
We'll have 3 new pivots this week, so the biggest change-over date of the year after 12/31. For now levels to watch are VIX YP (just below), NDX Q2P (fractionally below). To translate, market in serious trouble if VIX moves and closes above its YP.
Entries are tougher here, but remember - usually easier to buy what is going up (compared to shorting). But if you really want to short, look for what is below all / most pivots. That means you would already be short IBB, then IWM would have been first choice on USA indexes.
Expanding to global indexes, NKY would have been first choice (although EWJ does not move exactly the same). Among more easily traded vehicles, EFA, FXI and EEM below long term levels or all or most of the year.
It is proper to shift more defensive with only 2 of 5 USA mains above long term levels, safe havens soaring, and most global indexes I track below long term levels as well. If you have cash on the sidelines having recently cut longs, the choice will be to add back on bonds or GLD/GDX, or look for shorts. Keep in mind 3 new pivots from 7/1.
Monthly 20MA breaks underway for SPX, NDX, COMPQ, INDU, COMP; and already acting as resistance for RUT & NYA. The close is a good time to check monthly and quarterly charts.
Valuation & fundamentals
Continue to cap upside, with the 12 month forward P/E on SPX still at 17.93 making 2045 resistance.
I pointed to sentiment extremes just after the 6/8 top, but that wasn't the case on 6/23. Now we'll be watching for bear extremes on any low. Put-call is already quite elevated, and those who hedged their longs with options did quite well on Friday. Usually important lows have more than one of the four I track at extremes.
Dates for June that were listed at the end of May:
6/7-9; 6/8 the high in USA and some global indexes
6/13-14; looks like miss (while I will allow for +/-1, +/-2 really just isn't good enough for the safe haven trading high)
6/28-30; may become some stock low next week