Timing model

This site is about pivots, because that is the best way to get the most bang, meaning gains and being on the right side of the market, for the least buck, meaning time and mental energy. I think this technical strategy can be complemented by other factors: fundamental research (which takes a Bloomberg for me to do what I prefer), and then also by sentiment analysis (which I have done a few times), and timing. 

If you are reading you might be open to the idea. Although generally considered to be fallacy that doesn't stop people like Tom DeMark or companies like Raymond James, who both mention timing models and get paid quite a lot for them. So, this is my version of that sort of thing. At this point I cannot do the ultra high level of detailed tracking that high accuracy requires, but still, once in a while I'll hopefully be able to supplement the basic pivots technique with something useful. 

Like the timing model 2/11-15 turn added to the chance of a bounce, and given the structure thought to play it this time, and the site recommended speculative buy on INDU / DIA on 2/12 based on holding YS1; then suggested 3 different emerging markets to try on a close above a February pivot (EEM, RSX, EWZ). Generally it is not my favorite strategy to buy what is below all pivots or even what is above just 1 monthly pivot yet still below yearly, half-year and quarterly, as these are much more important levels. But we also had sentiment extremes, and at the time, DXY was below all pivots so I thought the emerging market trades were squeezy. Not a huge move but a small pop, and if you had the idea to hold if USA confirmed bullish and take profits if it didn't, you had a small swing gain on these 3 trades. 

Two Timing points. In Model A, we are entering a wide period where we "should" see more volatility, starting as early as today 2/19 but increasingly likely 3/1-11, then possibly continuing into 3/23. Predicting volatility now seems like an obvious point but let's see what happens especially in that March window. Bias is that indexes slide back down and bust the recent lows and we see some moments of real panic. 

Second in Model B (unrelated to A system), the next turn date (ie date series after 2/11-15) is 3/9. So far the turn window areas this year (1/19, 2/11-15) have both been lows. At some point one of these will turn into a high, but with stocks below all pivots, safe havens jumping, and expecting volatility I am again shooting for a low area there.