Timing model

For previous posts check the tag. As I have stated several times, rough work in progress and feel free to ignore. 

Big picture idea is:
1. Pivots, ideally long term and medium term levels, AND
2. Other technical factors such as volume, RSI, MA trend analysis, BBs, AND
3. Timing, AND
4. Sentiment extreme, AND
5. Fundamental valuation level

Will all be on the big turns. Of course indexes bumping up against yearly pivots will do it right there, so you can toss the other stuff if you want. But for what it is worth all of these did line up at the 2/11-12 low and that is the big turn that mattered for most stocks, oil and bonds. Really a lot came together - yearly pivot holds and/or breaks & recovery on many asset classes; RSI, breadth and other divergence compared to January lows; timing model; significant sentiment extremes reached (search "sentiment" in tool on FAQ page then go through tags) and lastly SPX forward p/e at the time was very likely about 15. 

I started writing about timing just a couple months ago and mentioned it near that 2/11-15 turn. There are two models, A and B. Sometimes they agree, sometimes not. Sometimes timing is there but interpretation is off. Or maybe market moves and ignores my timing idea :)

2/11-15 was both A and B turn and there was a huge result. 

Model A 3/1-11 directional move, thought volatility ie down but flipped to positive early in the window Model B 3/8, so originally thought 3/8-11 would be low. Turned out minor pullback in larger uptrend. Timing there, interpretation off. Did not result in big cost as pivots had shifted to bounce scenario from late February. Markets were heading into Dow and SPX YPs at the time and there was 1 day SPY / ES short that was quickly cut. 

Model A 3/18-22. Pretty clear high. This was part of the VIX futures 1 day hedge idea also because on YS1 at the time, and that really worked if you took gains when I recommended. 

Model A 3/31, Model B 4/1. You will see I first mentioned 4/1 date on 3/9 post. I thought some turn here but USA stock indexes were not running into levels so did not play this too much. But NKY broke down as I had been watching for weeks anyway and TLT started month above all pivots and just could not ignore either of those developments.  

Model A 4/8, Model B 4/8-9 strong. Not sure, as of Monday I thought maybe stock low, Tuesday maybe high, now back to low? Safe havens jumping today in pre-market. 

Model A 4/15 strong, 4/29 also strong
Model B 4/22 and 4/29 both medium

Interpretation is 4/8 area possible turn, 4/15? and 4/22?, 4/29 area good chance for larger turn. I know skeptics will say what? Timing turns once a week through this month? Whatever! Sometimes they are more spread out (like 1/19 and next 2/11-15) but let's just see what happens on these dates.