Timing model

Timing is part of my total market view, which I have gradually fleshed out here with posts on sentiment and more recently valuation (go to FAQ and search, or use the tags). Primary focus for positioning always pivots until i see them stop working, (note, pivots on INDU have worked well since the 1920s). 

Two models, related to but independent of each other. 

Model A pointed to increasing volatility 3/1-11, so this is "inversion" as they say, or wrong conclusion. I mentioned inversion possibility on 3/3 here. Main Model A point from here is that a 3/11 high could be bearish for the market. Other than that, 3/18-21 next possible inflection point. Model A very rough at this point, and I am not doing the proper amount of work on it for higher accuracy, so I don't really hold a strong opinion. Due to Model A I was expecting a weaker first half for 2016, but certainly did not expect January to begin the way it did. Once in play, however, the move to cut or short stocks, then buy bonds and gold, worked extremely well.

Model B has been hot this year, generated 3 dates for Q1: 1/19 which resulted in 1/20 low, 2/11-15 which was the big low, and then 3/9. As the year was unfolding I thought 3/9 would also be another low. On the daily SPY chart it does look like 3/8-10 pullback in larger uptrend. So this one less consequential, but we really won't know that until more time passes. If SPX rallies to 2050+ it will look like an important pullback. If the market falls back and undercuts that low then minor pullback before a larger top. 

Next Model B dates:

4/1 mild
4/9 strong
4/22 medium
4/29 medium

It is a bit annoying to have only 3 dates in the entire Q1 and then 4 in April but sorry I cannot order it around the way I would like to have it. Of these 4/9 gets the focus due to strength and perhaps 4/22 and 4/29 will combine for a turn between them. 

Of course you can completely scratch the timing if you prefer and focus on pivots, although had I fully taken in timing, sentiment and valuation on 2/11-15, I could have emphasized buy side even more than I did. That said, INDU and oil buys 2/12, then emerging market buys the following week, worked out very well :)