Timing model update

I've written about the 4th component of my total market view, timing, here and here

Per the most recent post from 2/19, "we are entering a wide period where we "should" see more volatility, starting as early as today 2/19 but increasingly likely 3/1-11, then possibly continuing into 3/23. Predicting volatility now seems like an obvious point but let's see what happens especially in that March window. Bias is that indexes slide back down and bust the recent lows and we see some moments of real panic. 

Second in Model B (unrelated to A system), the next turn date (ie date series after 2/11-15) is 3/9. So far the turn window areas this year (1/19, 2/11-15) have both been lows. At some point one of these will turn into a high, but with stocks below all pivots, safe havens jumping, and expecting volatility I am again shooting for a low area there."

I keep to these conclusions. This means a bearish short term top is as early as today or at late as 2/29; if 3/1+ is bearish stocks and/or oil then we could see a very sharp drop into 3/9-11 then continuing into 3/23. But, the market is doing OK as key indexes held FebPs and are on track to open above MarPs as safe havens fade a bit. A bullish trading top extends to 3/3-4. Either way I am expecting a top in this window, 2/26-3/4, then a drop. 

But I'll let March pivots guide the positioning. Given bias, i will recommend a pretty sharp bear playbook if we see stock indexes below MarPs ie, nearly all in safe havens and short, perhaps saving just 3 DIA longs very near the low from 2/12. But not until then, and if MarPs hold as support for stocks then we can continue the bounce playbook currently about neutral 30% safe havens, 10% shorts, 40% stock longs, a bitcoin and some cash on sidelines.