8/19 Sentiment: "3/4 of these have recent extremes if you include the daily spikes on ISEE - should be enough to at least restrict upside, possibly increase risk of shakeout and often will contribute to a key high area."
8/20 Valuation and fundamentals: "Citigroup Economic Surprise Index published by Yardeni starting to look like a sharp fade after a rapid move into positive territory. Coincidentally most stocks have been sideways for 2 weeks. This is really something to watch here with sentiment extremes already reached and bonds holding up quite well. A move back into the negative zone would likely result in stock pullback and bond jump (yield drop)."
Note: Citigroup Economic Surprise Index continued to drop and turned slightly negative this week. But wrong about the bond move!
8/21 Symmetry: "NDX is setting up on something very similar to the upside, with 100% at 4864. Time matches on 9/5, so that would be an interesting area to watch along with AugR1 at 4857."
Note: Actual high 9/7 at 4839, on SepR1.
8/21 Total market view: "Yet for now I keep to this view: ideal high area INDU YR1 18727 with other levels (Q3R2, 1HR1) a bit above that; SPX Q3R2 to 2HR1 2198-2209; NDX achieved 1 day above 4816 so if above that next pivot resistance level is AugR1 at 4857, and RUT Q3R2 to YR1 combo at 1246-1261. Let's put that in perspective. INDU has rallied from lows bang on YS1 to YP which held on 6/27, and now all the way to near YR1; SPX slightly below YS1 through YP to above YR1; NDX below YS1 to above 2HR1; and RUT from YS2 and now approaching YR1! These are all fantastic moves; not completely unusual historically speaking, but pretty good. Perhaps we will see higher than these levels by the end of the year, but SPX is up 10% off the 6/27 low and I am doubting that the market simply blasts through these resistance levels. In other words, they might be good areas to take some profits, hedge, or possibly short some of the weaker indexes depending on what unfolds."
Note: Actual highs INDU did not reach target but within 100 points twice, SPX within 5 points twice; NDX high SepR1, RUT bang on 1261!
8/27 USA main indexes: "For the last several weeks I have been pointing to an ideal top area on 4 of the 5 USA main indexes (I probably should have included VTI but didn't, as that was also approaching YR1). SPX set 2HR1 & Q3R2 combo; INDU YR1; NDX above all time high then thought we would see some pivot resistance; RUT YR1, 2HR1 and Q3R2 combo.
Note: Actual high 5 points from SPX target, 100 points from INDU target, INDU above all time high then near tag of SepR1, RUT YR1 totally exact!
8/29 Tom Lee vs TPP: "Now he is saying buy USA small caps, which means the Russell. I say no way! IWM (ETF for the Russell 2000) just tagged its 2HR1 level, and YR1 is just above. This is terrible from a risk reward perspective. Basically, his buy signal is nearly 2 months and about 5% late."
8/31 Monthly charts: "Monthly bars just closed. Not every doji at the top of the monthly Bollinger bands is a sell - but sometimes they are! So will that be SPY, TLT, both or neither?"
9/3 Valuation and fundamentals: "Citigroup Economic Surprise Index as posted by Yardeni back down to the zero line. Although I understand the market rallied on Friday with postponement of rate hike I do not view this as positive development, and adds to my 'upside limited' base case from here."
9/3 USA main indexes: "All main USA indexes above all pivots is positive. As long as these hold we can aim for higher level targets. Mostly these are SepR1s with other levels very nearby depending on the index. For the last several weeks I have been looking for: SPX Q3R2 - 2HR1 (top within 5 points so far), NDX 4816+ then ideally a pivot, INDU YR1 (within 59 points) - these 3 all did not quite make target areas. But RUT set & VTI did reach levels. Now it is possible that market can go higher, tag SepR1s and then we'll see. This would be effectively a high test since the SepR1s are mostly near the previous tops. I have to be bullish here with all 5 above all pivots, but this is the 3rd month above monthly pivots and even strong trends are due for a pause or move to monthly S1s from time to time."
9/3 Total market view: "I have to be bullish here with all USA indexes above all pivots, safe havens all flashing green light for stocks, sentiment not at extremes. And yet I remain in 'upside limited' camp and expecting significant resistance if we see a tag of these target areas:
SPX SepR1 to 2HR1 - 2193 to 2209
NDX SepR1 - 4842
INDU SepR1 to YR1 - 18630 to 18727
RUT SepR1 / Q3R2 / 2HR1 / YR1 - all 1247 to 1261 in zone
VTI YR1 to 2HR1 - 112.46 to 113.53 also tagged zone"
Actual highs SPX 2187 6 points shy, NDX 4839 3 points shy, INDU miss, RUT 1261 bang on, VTI in zone!
9/7 SPY Daily: "SPX set about the same as yesterday; above all pivots and not quite at my target zone. Pretty close though, with today's high just 6 points from SepR1 and then more important levels above that at 2199 and 2209. NDX set effectively reached my target zone, with NDX within 3 points of the level. I'm going to say close enough. NYA is also stuck on its SepR1. IWM has been quite healthy and zoomed to the YR1. Honestly I did not think it would get through this so easily. .... Even if pro sellers seem like they are on vacation this week, remember, VIX is now in 11s and this is about where they tend to show up."
9/8 SPY Daily: "Not sure how all this will shake out, but right now IWM YR1 has stopped the rally."
If you know of anyone in markets who was very defensive on stocks from 1/6-7, and bullish TLT from there and then GLD late January and early February, started buying stocks and oil 2/12+, turned full on bullish on stocks in March, alerted to highs 4/20 and 6/8, bullish post Brexit, and consistently saying upside limited for the past 3 weeks... then hey, you don't need to read this blog!
ps: I called the bond top too. :)