Since time is limited, I post infrequently on currencies. When I worked for a hedge fund as a strategist, I did a full analysis on multiple currencies at least once a week and the daily movements were more part of my routine.
If you are a regular reader, you might have picked up on the fact that extra blog posts beyond the usual rotation of SPY daily comments, then weekend posts on valuation & fundamentals, USA main indexes, safe havens and Total market view, means I am calling attention to something important. Sometimes I do it in SPY daily section, and others get a blog post like I am doing here. For example, I started doing special posts on bonds in June and July and... yup got the top.
In the last Total market view post, I emphasized oil like this: "oil looks very interesting here showing 2 different signs of long term strength we have not seen in quite some time: the first close above monthly 10MA since July 2014, and the 2nd try above a long term pivot, also since July 2014. Oil strength will support the market." I really cannot get any more clear what I think is worthy of attention.
If you search on DXY posts you will see a bearish oriented post in early April calling for 94 area at least (actual low 91.92-92.54 depending on whether you use price or close low); then a skeptical of strength post on 8/27 saying $USD would have to prove Yellen's recent hawkish tone by rallying above 2HP and YP 95.90-96.48 (it didn't); but then I really changed my tune in mid September and recommended a long. If you followed the stop parameters on that post it was a rare small loss, and that is because I didn't check standard moving averages at the time (sorry).
But if you took the same idea to be long above 2HP then you were in again on 10/4 and now adding above the YP (just like TLT and GLD trades in Jan and Feb, and stocks in March and June) and now you are looking good with break-even about worst case.
$USD has quietly consolidated for quite a while. If you paid attention to $USD strength then gold or GDX shorts were the easy call, especially when they opened below Q4Ps and were below OctPs as well. Anyway, my main point here is that just because $USD has been sideways since 3/2015 doesn't mean the rally is over. It is entirely possible that DXY breaks out above in months to come and this could, along with rising interest rates, be the next big move in markets. This would probably put a lid on USA indexes, even if rising interest rates support financials.
Let's check a few charts.
This is really very bullish, weak selling above a sharply rising 10MA and next move has been the easy spot UP.
Recent small red bar on this chart too, and right now launching above the 10MA and 20MA. Head and shoulders fans (I'm not really one of them) will watch 96-100 for a possible top, but I'm thinking higher.
It is hard to imagine a more bullish working off of extreme overbought conditions. Test of high, drop to low of range, rising 100MA holds massively, builds higher lows, and after another small red bar (those are great to watch for on the long side!) anogher blast off and above all moving averages.
This will be the 3rd move above the YP this year. Note high on 2015 2HR1 exact, and recent major low near enough to YS1!. I don't know if we'll see 2HR1 this year - maybe - but if not then we should see major resistance for a top.
That is, if H wins... if D wins I really don't know what will happen with markets except you might want to be in bitcoin / ethereum.