Politics and charts

Thus far Brexit and USA election had much higher VIX spike than whatever of recent concerns about Trump, N Korea or French elections. This could change next week, but market not so concerned here. 

In a bull market, VIX RSI overbought along with pivot tests & holds have been many of the perfect places to buy. These are all pointed out in blue arrows on both pivots and RSIs, with one notable fake-out before the British election in red. 

The markets have certainly gotten politics very wrong in the past year or so. People seemed confident about the UK vote, then shocked at May win, then realized it didn't matter and stocks were a buy anyway.

There was a lot of worry about Trump before the election, and days he gained in the polls stocks went down and VIX up. Then when it appeared he was winning, stocks cratered only to recover near open and launch a fantastic multi month rally after victory.

Now stocks VIX and currencies seem to be fairly calm before the French vote. Either markets are wrong again or this isn't a big deal. In fact what we can say right now is that DXY is weaker then EUR, and perhaps more risk of USA gov't shutdown than immediate EU crumble. I reserve the right to change this opinion on Monday or in two weeks :)