Safe havens

VIX remains below all pivots, and XIV above. But both are showing some signs that are typical before a larger move down in stocks. This doesn't always happen but I think right to be watching carefully. First, SPY is just a fraction off 7/26-27 highs, but VIX well off its lows. To emphasize this point, on Friday 8/4 indexes were higher and VIX was as well. This means smart money is paying up for hedges.

XIV is seeing resistance at YR3. This could be a critical turn per this postAlso keep in mind that XIV has been a great tell on many other critical turns (11/4/2016 for starters).

Safe havens TLT and GLD are both above Q3Ps. I think this threatens stocks a bit as well. If these break, stocks especially financials likely to be in rally mode. It could also pay to short GDX. 

W: Possible reversal from historic lows. Note key stock buy areas on the VIX 2016 YP, 2016 2HP, 2017 1HP, and thus far 2017 2HP. 
D: Still under AugP which has been resistance for 3 straight trading days. 
VIX still under all pivots which means benefit of doubt to stock bulls. Watching AugP. 

5 21 VIX D.png

W: Start of reversal or pause before higher to 2HR1? Tough to say. Stall just like this has preceded big drops like July 2014 and August 2015. My view - anything under the YR3 is susceptible to spike lower. 
D: YR3 starting to act as resistance - and noticeably only 1 day of buying above this level (rest of bars red, though closed above). If lower then AugP could be in play very quickly.
XIV sum: Above all pivots but starting to see selling at YR3 area which could mean an important turn. 

5 22 XIV W.png

W: Above 2HP, but YP still resistance. Congested.
D: What a fakeout bar on 8/3. But still Friday held D50 and Q3P. 
TLT sum: Strengthening recently as most stocks are sideways. Above Q3P and AugP I think threatens stocks somewhat.

5 24 TLT W.png
5 25 TLT D.png

FWIW the broader AGG is doing fine above all pivots. 

5 26 AGG D.png

W: Considering $USD weakness in 2017, GLD has not been so impressive. Several tries above the YP and HPs, but hasn't reached long term resistance yet. Still could but thus far perhaps the start of another drop.
D: Like TLT helding Q3P and rising D50MA, in addition to D20 and D100 nearby. 

5 27 GLD W.png
5 28 GLD D.png

Another fail by GDX. If GLD rallies then better to be in that. If GLD drops further this is a short.