3/6/2017

Decline from levels (so that's DIA, VTI and IWM MarR1s, and especially SPY YR1 1HR2 Q1R2 MarR1 cluster which was tagged for 3 of those 4) continued, but no actual change of pivot status. So far IWM remains above MarP, QQQ remains above 1HR2. Simiarly, VIX below all pivots and XIV higher. Point: Stock indexes could have been worse, but aren't, so that is bullish. 

Safe havens are weaker and while we may see rates up and stocks dropping because of this - the opposite of what happened last summer, with rates going down and stocks rallying - in general I keep to the idea that growth of stocks compared to and safety and long term nature of bonds and inert gold are conflicting principles. Typically what is good for growth is bad for safe havens and vice-versa. For now, TLT below all pivots amd GLD weaker is more supportive of stocks than the opposite, TLT and GLD strong (like they were beginning of 2016).

Simply stated, no reason to change positioning yet. But after this mini pullback completes, stage is set for high retest of sorts with major divergence, and this has potential to be a very key top. If decline picks up speed, then IWM will break MarP and that can be a hedge, or we can consider taking gains on anything else that breaks its MarP too. 

SPY and VIX below.