Safe haven message has been loud and clear from the start of Q2P. GLD already above all pivots, and both TLT and most importantly VIX were above Q2Ps as well. XIV has been phenomenal for months but had clear trouble at YR2 and then broke its monthly pivot.
All this happened before much of the damage in stocks, just as suspected.
March 19: "I think we will see signs of strength in the safe havens and then possibly VIX/XIV turn before or in early stages of a stock drop. Stage is set for this move, but it hasn't happened yet."
What next? Levels to watch are VIX 1HP at 15.99. GLD Q2R1, TLT Q2R1 and AGG YP/1HP.
VIX jump above Q2P sounded alarm. Terrific job - seriously, i mean it! Also note VIX stopped confirming stock highs with the lowest daily close at the end of January.
Already at 1HP but not above. This sets stage for stock bounce next week.
Is this overkill to add the VIX of VIX? Long term chart working pretty well I'd say.
YR2 rejection! Also breaking 1HR2. YR1 may test as support.
One reason I sounded semi-alarm so early was configuration of XIV on 4/5-7. YR2 rejection, small up bar, then pivot break.
Another thing to watch on a the low is XIV lows within the daily BB - not yet. YR1 would make a nice low.
TLT weekly chart far from long term levels.
Daily chart above Q2P was part of the tell.
Already testing Q2R1, a level to watch for next week.
Testing YP & 1HP!
Clear hold of YP and 2nd move above 1HP on same week with weekly MACD already on buy was interesting tell.
Like TLT, GLD already near Q2R1.
GLD gave nearly 3 weeks to buy above all pivots before breaking out up.
Has been weaker structurally than GLD this year, just climbing above all pivots the last 3 days.