There is a funny story about this post. After the last one on the Dow discussing the possibility of a turn, I noticed some things on oil and started to type up this post. I wasn't quite finished when I went out with my wife for a coffee on Friday morning as is our custom. Returning less than one hour later, oil has moved up quite a lot. So this post will be Part I (before coffee) and Part II (after). If you think I am making this up, just check the charts - no rewind on data feed.
Obviously the decline in oil has been one of the big stories. I think it could be near a decent turn, but whether this is *the low* is hard to say. Maybe a bounce before lower. Still, if oil bounces then stocks will probably rally and bonds drop.
CL1 weekly on YS1 / 1HS1 combo. Except a 2015 Q2 rally, oil has been dropping since mid 2014.
Here's another view of the same exact thing with usual MAs, Bollinger bands and RSI. Note - this is the first low that is entirely inside the BB on significantly less selling volume, with RSI holding 30 this time instead of below. This is textbook Bollinger band and RSI divergence - the stage is set for a squeeze.
I return to this CL1 at 29 instead of 28 from the above post. Here is the daily CLJ chart. Nice divergence on RSI here too, just 1 day slightly below the YS1 and now above both long term levels. This is a spec buy or at least a short cover.