DXY and its impact

Dollar strength made headlines last week. Time prevents me from detailed currency analysis these days, though it was part of the routine when I was at a fund.

Main point - DXY convincingly cleared its YP last week, and I expect that to hold going forward. DXY higher will mean lagging performance in DJI and most foreign stocks priced in US dollars. 

Q: RSI bottomed near 50, now above all MAs. Point here is that a move to upper band currently 105+ is entirely possible. 
M: At very least we might see upper band test of monthly chart so that would mean test of 100 area. I rather like this scenario. 
W: DXY pushing back above a nicely rising W200MA as well after that acted as resistance since May. OK you could say RSI near overbought but if DXY wants to rally it will ignore this like 2014. 
D: DXY cleared its QP for the 2nd time in April and since then has been pretty strong. It had tested or nearly tagged the YP several times until a big breakout last week. I do not expect this to return under the YP anytime soon. 

11 21 DXY M.png
11 22 DXY W.png
11 23 DXY D.png

DXY vs USA mains
From the start of Q2 as the dollar rally got going, no impact to percentage leaders QQQ and IWM, but seems to have been involved in lower returns of DIA and NYA. SPY in the middle. 

11 24 DXY comp.png

DXY is composed mostly of dollar vs Euro, Yen, British pound and Canadian dollar. But here is a different way of viewing dollar impact on investable foreign stocks.

Nifty vs INDA
Nifty 9.5% on the year vs -2% for INDA and that is coming after a decent rally to start the second half. Nifty has been entirely above its YP all year, found a low on its HP the first trading day of July then launched to rally above YR1. INDA has traded below its YP for a few days and hasn't come close to YR1.

INDA is designed to match the MSCI India Index which is not the same as the Nifty, but the main point here is the currency impact.

11 25 Nifty.png

Here it is another way with USD vs INR +9% for the year so far. 

Hang Seng
For some reason Hang Seng vs FXI doesn't have the same dramatic difference.

11 26 Hang Seng.png

But a huge difference on Micex index (Russia) futures vs RSX.

But even this wasn't as terrible as Bovespa vs EWZ, with Bovespa just about flat for the year with EWZ down near -19%.

11 28 Bovespa.png

Sure enough USD vs BRL +20% on the year so far. 

11 29 USDBRL.png


DXY charts look terrible; obvious tailwind behind all global indexes and commodities. 

Breaking slightly under 38% Fib from 2006L to 2016H at 91.12. Q100MA also nearby at 90.71. Seems like we will see 80s. 

13 71 DXY M.png

Same Fib. Monthly 10MA sharply lower and near resistance on the bounce. Again seems like we will see 80s. 

Weak RSI pattern. Probably we will see RSI tough 30 again at minimum.

13 72 DXY W.png

Below all pivots from 12/20 and opened 2018 below all pivots. Red line is 2016 low.

13 73 DXY D.png

First long term support 1HS1 90.03; YS1 87.59.


Last full post of 5/17/2017 said $DXY looked "screaming bearish."

$DXY has been under all pivots every trading day since then, and now -6.2% lower than 5/17, and down -11.2% for the year. Now what?

Currencies in a trending mode are relentless. Consider DXY in rally mode from 7/2014 to 3/2015 - up 9 monthly bars in a row. Now it is going the other way, from 3/2017 lower high to 8/2017 6 bars in a row and working on a 7th. Sure some timeframes are getting stretched but there is nothing that says support has to hold.

Bottom line - support that could have held on monthly and weekly charts broke fairly quickly after a weak bounce. The only thing pointing to a possible turn are daily chart RSI divergence and EURUSD YR2. As of now I'm not too concerned about DXY bounce impacting GLD, GDX or global indexes. 

At 38% (91.30) of entire rally from 2008 low to 2017 high, with 2 rising MAs to help out as support, 20MA 90.33 and 100MA at 90.71. While they hold? No idea - could just as easily to the 50% level at 87.

10 1 DXY Q.png

Broke through rising M50MA with a very weak bounce that doesn't even show up on this timeframe. On this view, test of monthly 200MA and 50% near 88 seems reasonable. Also note breakdown of 2015-16 lows.

10 2 DXY M.png

Oversold sure, but not much bounce at weekly 200MA and below 2016 lows. It would take a move about that to get more pop on long side. Also, we are likely to see RSI divergence before a real turn.

Hasn't even touched the D50MA since April. You could say potential daily RSI divergence but that is it. 

10 4 DXY D.png





Whether stocks have started a real correction remains to be seen, but what looks screaming bearish to me right now is the $DXY.

DXY weakness will support portfolio global overweight and could mean GLD / GDX on the long side. I haven't been too active trading these but really more a matter of time. Obviously easier longs elsewhere, and as shorts there has only been one good drop in 2016 Q4 as I highlighted. Even this probably better used as leverage signal for longs than short. That said, a skilled trader can use GDX and leveraged ETFs to advantage. 

Quarterly chart
This is Bollinger band divergence - 2016 Q4 highs and close inside band; 2015 Q4 highs outside and close near band; 2015 Q1 highs and close outside band. At the same time, RSI divergence too. DXY back to 10MA and if that goes next MA support level is rising 20 and 100, currently near 90.

Failed at prior highs despite a few bars above. Note RSI divergence too. Testing rising 20MA, if that goes no support until lower band and 50MA 91-92.

Already under W10, W20 since March, and breaking W50 here - W100 next to test. Cannot say breakdown of lower band is ideal short position, but still. 

Weekly long term pivots
What looks negative is the decisive rejection of the YP and HP that happened just in the last few bars. This targets YS1 94.86.

And here's the daily with 4 pivots only - D200 and YP break, attempted recovery then fail, another attempted recovery and fail - decisive rejection in last 3 bars. 


When I was working full time at a hedge fund I kept a closer eye on the big currencies: DXY, EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD. Here are a few notes of interest. 

Broken out of 18 month range in very bullish fashion The lines are drawn at the March and May 2015 high and low closes which defined the range until last week. 

The usual pivots chart - above Q4R2, tagging NovR2. 

Has not yet broken the 2015 lows, but looks like it could go that way. There is a vote coming up. Given Brexit and TrumpIt, probably markets will decide to go against polls heading into the vote - likely bearish Euro. 

EUR broke the 2HS1 without any attempt at bounce. Below Q4S3 is 1.04 area, then YS1 down at 1.02. 

Not only reflecting USD strength, but perhaps some China weakness as well. 


DXY is breaking out up above 100. So far posts from October - both massively bullish - are playing out.

10/6: "$USD has quietly consolidated for quite a while. If you paid attention to $USD strength then gold or GDX shorts were the easy call, especially when they opened below Q4Ps and were below OctPs as well. Anyway, my main point here is that just because $USD has been sideways since 3/2015 doesn't mean the rally is over. It is entirely possible that DXY breaks out above in months to come and this could, along with rising interest rates, be the next big move in markets. This would probably put a lid on USA indexes, even if rising interest rates support financials."

10/22: "All systems go for $DXY on every chart below - quarterly, monthly, weekly on other technicals, then weekly on long term pivots, daily on all pivots, and a last daily pivots & technicals chart. While I think it has potential to go substantially higher long term - let's say breakout above 100 - near term expect to see 99.18-88. Continued $USD strength will cap upside in USA stocks, especially INDU, and could pressure the popular emerging markets trade as well."

Even though this hasn't limited INDU upside yet, at some point it will, and what the market has already realized is USA small caps and financials are the only place to be. Now later, we may have risk off if rates and thus $USD goes too far too fast, but let's not get ahead of things. 

Heading towards a big 61% level from 2001 top to 2008 low at 101.70. This chart looks fantastic, and I think we will see much higher than that. 

Going for highs and the 100 area likely turning into support. 

Recent launch from 2HP and YP has already reached 2HR1. YR1 by year end? 

11/9 was the entry (or hold) bar - test and hold above 3 pivots, above all pivots, above all MAs. Now fully overbought, but currencies of all markets tend to stick in trends more than stocks. 


From 10/6 with $USD at 96.69: "$USD has quietly consolidated for quite a while. If you paid attention to $USD strength then gold or GDX shorts were the easy call, especially when they opened below Q4Ps and were below OctPs as well. Anyway, my main point here is that just because $USD has been sideways since 3/2015 doesn't mean the rally is over. It is entirely possible that DXY breaks out above in months to come and this could, along with rising interest rates, be the next big move in markets. This would probably put a lid on USA indexes, even if rising interest rates support financials."

As $USD is important for all markets let's again do a very thorough chart workup.

All systems go for $DXY on every chart below - quarterly, monthly, weekly on other technicals, then weekly on long term pivots, daily on all pivots, and a last daily pivots & technicals chart. While I think it has potential to go substantially higher long term - let's say breakout above 100 - near term expect to see 99.18-88. Continued $USD strength will cap upside in USA stocks, especially INDU, and could pressure the popular emerging markets trade as well. 

Per Jeffrey Gundlach, currency trends tend to persist, so a very strong move up after an 18 month consolidation is not something to be ignored. OK, we can see that 99.88 target and still be within the range, but let's observe pivots and other technicals as weeks unfold to gauge the chances of breaking out up.

Consequences of strong USD for other trades: GLD short, DIA hedge, IWM better long, recent oil strength more likely to fade, and currently strong EEM stocks could get whacked. Conversely if USD suddenly stops or pauses then likely to see GLD bounce, DIA bounce, oil and EEM stocks continue up. 

The best move up in Q4 so far across asset classes. There is really nothing to stop this from moving well over 100, though Fibonacci fans will watch 61% from 2001 top at 101.50.

Upper BB right now just above 100 and it looks like we should see that - at minimum.

Launch above all MAs with movst of them rising slope and power move outside weekly BB. RSI not yet overbought. Very strong here. 

DXY W - long term pivots
What I saw early in October was 3rd time above YP and thought that was going to stick given what had happened with medium term pivots and other technicals as well. Right call. It could reach 2HR1 near 100 and technically still be in the trading range. 

DXY D - long and medium term pivots
Blast through Q3R1, also blast through OctR2. Next resistance Q3R2 99.18.

DXY D - pivots & other technicals
Should go higher. Daily RSI 2nd time near 75 sign of strength. MAs and BBs sharply rising and currency trends tend to persist even more than stocks. 


Since time is limited, I post infrequently on currencies. When I worked for a hedge fund as a strategist, I did a full analysis on multiple currencies at least once a week and the daily movements were more part of my routine.

If you are a regular reader, you might have picked up on the fact that extra blog posts beyond the usual rotation of SPY daily comments, then weekend posts on valuation & fundamentals, USA main indexes, safe havens and Total market view, means I am calling attention to something important. Sometimes I do it in SPY daily section, and others get a blog post like I am doing here. For example, I started doing special posts on bonds in June and July and... yup got the top.

In the last Total market view post, I emphasized oil like this: "oil looks very interesting here showing 2 different signs of long term strength we have not seen in quite some time: the first close above monthly 10MA since July 2014, and the 2nd try above a long term pivot, also since July 2014. Oil strength will support the market." I really cannot get any more clear what I think is worthy of attention.

If you search on DXY posts you will see a bearish oriented post in early April calling for 94 area at least (actual low 91.92-92.54 depending on whether you use price or close low); then a skeptical of strength post on 8/27 saying $USD would have to prove Yellen's recent hawkish tone by rallying above 2HP and YP 95.90-96.48 (it didn't); but then I really changed my tune in mid September and recommended a long. If you followed the stop parameters on that post it was a rare small loss, and that is because I didn't check standard moving averages at the time (sorry). 

But if you took the same idea to be long above 2HP then you were in again on 10/4 and now adding above the YP (just like TLT and GLD trades in Jan and Feb, and stocks in March and June) and now you are looking good with break-even about worst case. 

$USD has quietly consolidated for quite a while. If you paid attention to $USD strength then gold or GDX shorts were the easy call, especially when they opened below Q4Ps and were below OctPs as well. Anyway, my main point here is that just because $USD has been sideways since 3/2015 doesn't mean the rally is over. It is entirely possible that DXY breaks out above in months to come and this could, along with rising interest rates, be the next big move in markets. This would probably put a lid on USA indexes, even if rising interest rates support financials.

Let's check a few charts.

This is really very bullish, weak selling above a sharply rising 10MA and next move has been the easy spot UP.

Recent small red bar on this chart too, and right now launching above the 10MA and 20MA. Head and shoulders fans (I'm not really one of them) will watch 96-100 for a possible top, but I'm thinking higher. 

It is hard to imagine a more bullish working off of extreme overbought conditions. Test of high, drop to low of range, rising 100MA holds massively, builds higher lows, and after another small red bar (those are great to watch for on the long side!) anogher blast off and above all moving averages. 

This will be the 3rd move above the YP this year. Note high on 2015 2HR1 exact, and recent major low near enough to YS1!. I don't know if we'll see 2HR1 this year - maybe - but if not then we should see major resistance for a top. 

That is, if H wins... if D wins I really don't know what will happen with markets except you might want to be in bitcoin / ethereum. 


Last update 8/27: "Basically DXY has to prove strength by moving above 2HP and YP 95.90-96.48 area and close above that on a weekly basis."

Result: High 96.26 in zone, then another drop - but Friday's move trying again. 

Now onto a few charts.

Amazing 3 bar rally, then 6 bars of sideways. 

Monthly 20MA currently 96.53. That could still be resistance or turn into support, likely depending on FOMC actions and words this week. 

2015 high on 2HR1; 2016 low on YS1, both turns near exact. This will be the third time DXY is rallying above a HP. The YP is still the biggest level in play, but if it can clear that again I think that will be definitive. Or, another dovish FOMC and back down. We'll see. 

Q3P has turned into support, and DXY on Friday jumped above SepP and 2HP. Bullish action, and could be long here with partial stop below 2HP and then firm stop below SepP. 


If market really believes Yellen's hawkish tale we would see strength in USD right? Dunno, I read the same speech and saw promise of QE4 with any real downturn. Jeesh!

Basically DXY has to prove strength by moving above 2HP and YP 95.90-96.48 area and close above that on a weekly basis. If this happens then it will put a kink in the commodity and global index rally theme of 2016 (oil, gold and miners, EWZ, RSX, partially EEM, etc). 

Weekly chart high last year bang on 2HR1, low this year on YS1 and a choppy mess since then. 2 bar recovery of YP only to drop back below. Still under 2HP and YP at 95.90 and 96.48 respectively. If above it would be the 3rd time this year and that "should" be definitive. 
Daily chart big jump above the Q3P after being below for 8 sessions. Still below 3 other pivots though. 


I am not a currency trader but some of you might be and due to correlations in the markets think worthwhile to check up on these at least once a week.

DXY below all pivots and looks like we should see that 1HS1 level at least. 

DXY also below Q2P and AprP with no immediate support. 

Here are all long term and medium term levels on one chart.

EURUSD above long term levels and may see 1HR1.

EURUSD did tag Q1R1 on the last day of the quarter.

USDJPY breaking YS2! This is a big deal. Bearish below that level 110.62. 

Since announcement of negative rates USDJPY has been sharply lower; below all pivots from 2/3/16.

AUDUSD top on 1HR1 but still above YP. 

GBPUSD W under YP / HP from the start. Second break of YS1 in last 3 weeks is bearish. Trying to hold 1HS2 now. So from here I'd say a break below 1.4007 should mean down to the lows or YS2 1.371.

Q2 moving sharply lower so far, already from Q2P to 1HS1 and break of AprP and YS1 in the process.

Lastly the digital currency wish I knew about earlier. I thought bitcoin might get a run this year but alas right idea wrong vehicle! ETHUSD "Ethereum." 1 day break of AprP and recovery, note March low was exactly on the pivot. 


Seems like we should see a long term support level on DXY, so that means lower. 

With new Q2 and Apr pivots just 2 days away I will just go straight to quarterly and monthly charts. Actually that is classic BB & RSI divergence on the 2015 Q4 bar. No one should be surprised at some selling here. 10MA far below, room for more pullback. 

Although the M chart looks more bullish, just drop to nicely rising 20MA with RSI in uptrend buy area. Not sure which chart wins here. 

EURUSD lifting up from YP again, will it reach 1HR1?

EURUSD Q chart bounce with similar BB & RSI divergence. 

Although also heading into falling 20MA, near test once so maybe clears this time.

USDJPY low on YS2, but upside limited if USD is weak. 

Now there is a good example of the importance of this exercise... 2015 Q4 small blue bar with wick and lower close that high begs for a drop in the next bar, and that is how it played out. 

Small blue bar in 2016 Jan too, so once Q and M chart showing weakness there was meaningful drop. 

AUDUSD decent rally from 1HS1 along with GLD. Almost tagged 1HR1 but above YP for the first time in quite a while. I also mentioned this as long term buy and hold possibility for this reason a couple weeks ago.

Seems like bounce more to go on this Q chart. 

But M chart heading into falling 20MA, watch for resistance. 

Back in February I noticed that BTCUSD looked good above all pivots, and though if there were stories about $ getting out of China, gold up etc then a digital currency might get a run. It didn't do much. Too bad I didn't know about Ethereum, up to 1530% this year at the highs from 12/31/2015 close, and still up a decent 1190% to today :) Above all pivots with clear support from 1/16-17 of this year and monthly pivot holding the pullback both in early Feb and exact low in March!


There have been fantastic moves in every other asset class but currencies have been chopping around (I don't follow soft commodities). One of the the worst parts of any trading strategy is chop. It is rare but can happen with pivots and stock indexes too; if a level that usually works just doesn't for 3 tries in a row call it day and come back in next quarter. 

That said there were some levels on the 3/17-18 turn.

DXY W dropped below both long term pivots but rebounding before reaching a long term support level. 

There's the rebound from Q1S1 so at least there was a level on the turn. 

All levels; reclaiming YP would be bullish, but hesitant to take any currency trades with so many moves failing with much better movement in other asset classes.

EUR W chart also looked like rally on but dropping back to test the YP.

No level reached on the recent high before a fade qualifies as chop.

USDJPY W, now that is a nice turn bang on YS2!

Time limits currency check to once a week, but that was a decent spec buy setup as of 3/21, with clear hold of YS2 and lift from 1HS2.

AUDUSD W, did not quite reach 1HR1.

At least rally reached Q1R2 so cannot complain too much. Better entry above 3 pivots on 3/3 chance for gain.

GBPUSD maybe returning to status of "below all pivots." 


Now that the circus is over let's take a look. For these charts I am going to post daily chart pivots only (Y 1H Q1 and month, but no S/R) and we can arrive at some simple conclusions.

DXY has been chopping with several failed moves (by failed I mean above/below all pivots and not reaching a real resistance or support area). This is the worst that can happen with this method - chop. Is this finally the move for real? This will be the 3rd time below all pivots. After the second time, the recovery was very weak. Maybe so.

EUR looks like DXY in reverse, also the 3rd time above all pivots for the charm?

Everyone pointing to USDJPY & SPX etc correlations have suddenly gone quiet. 

AUDUSD above YP and so all pivots for the 2nd time. Maybe definitive given gold. RSI not ideal but not much to risk for long term buy and hold idea if you have some sideline cash. 


There is no doubt that pivots work on the currencies, but this year has been relatively stuck in range with a few fake-outs. DXY D chart below, and you'll see the YR1 and YR2 was basically the range from May to November with the exception of just a few days that came back; and then when it finally broke out of that the high was bang on a 2HR1 level.

But this year it moved above all pivots in January but didn't reach any resistance; fell under the FebP and that was the only real move of the year, did break YP to be below all pivots but didn't reach any support level; then came back; above all pivots again, then another fail! What to do here? Not sure. Another very good technical strategist, AC Parets of All Star Charts, likes to avoid asset classes with a flat 200 daily moving average and maybe that is the lesson here. 

Or, with really 3 failed moves in DXY this quarter you could just say enough chop and not take any signal until next quarter. 

EURUSD close to being under all pivots again. It has had this status several times this year without a real drop. 

USDJPY was the best currency move this year with clear rejection of all pivots 2/2-3 and down to a low bang on 1HS2 which was also very near YS2 level.

AUDUSD is doing something interesting too, rallying from its MarP at the start of the month, above Q1P on 3/2 then above 1HP on 3/3 and now testing its YP! AUDUSD has been completely below its YP on a weekly close basis from May 2013! This would be a massive status change to clear that level. This move maybe helped by the gold rally. 

BTCUSD held YP as the low of the year several times, and the high of the year very near FebR1. Now back above 3 levels, and below only the monthly. 


Currency ideas all hanging by thread. 

DXY cleared all pivots but faded back to QP / MarP combo at 97.66 and 97.67. Clear hold of 1HP right now, but if below the QP today (?) then it is under 2 pivots and no longer much edge. Of course, clear lift above the QP would remedy that situation. EURUSD similar in reverse. Lastly, BTCUSD clearly holding MarP so it is a hold above that level.


Weekly report as time permits.

DXY weekly with long term levels only; recovery of YP and HP after 1 week break is bullish and targets 102 area if 96-97 holds. 

And here is the daily chart with all levels; the MarP is basically same the QP 97.67 and 97.66.

EURUSD below all pivots. Note hte small orange dots near yesterday's low is the FebP and not in play anymore. 

USDJPY held 1HS2 on the lows, but stil under YS1 / 1HS1. 

AUD above MarP and testing QP. It has been up here a bunch of times so maybe it will clear. IF so then headnig into 1HP above. 

BTCUSD pivots definitely seem to be in play. 

Currency trade idea update

Here is DXY above all pivots. The new MarP is hard to see because it is .01 from the QP so that means solid medium term support at 97.66-67. 

Meanwhile EURUSD below all pivots and dropping from Q1P.

Going back to DXY and adding R / S levels, first resistance is at the MarR1 near 100.

Weekly strategy sum

Basic idea: if the market is more bullish, that means more longs and fewer safe havens; if bearish then more safe havens and or shorts. Mostly I try to buy what is above pivots and avoid, hedge or short what is below pivots, but once in a while there is a good buy setup from support (or sell setup from resistance). 

So last week 3 of 5 USA main indexes lifted from YS1s (SPX, COMPQ, and NYA) as RTY continued its advance from the low of the year on 2/11 bang on YS2. And between 2/11-12 INDU / DIA / YM held its YS1 as well. This is bullish. 

Meanwhile, both main safe havens TLT and GLD jumped above their YPs and quickly rallied to YR1s, and then have consolidated for 3 weeks. Holding gains is positive, but failing to clear the major levels increases the chance of a larger drop.

If stocks continue to advance, we will probably see more pullback in the safe havens. If safe havens stay firm or even rally back to or above YR1 / 1HR1 levels, then stocks are likely dropping. 

We will also have March pivots to consider. All stock indexes are still below their YPs, 1HPs, and Q1Ps; MarchPs will likely vary. So any stock index that opens below or breaks its MarP is a short candidate, most especially any vehicle that did not trade above its FebP as others did. 

Similarly, safe havens are above their YPs, 1HPs and Q1Ps so if MarPs test and hold as support that is a good buy.

It will be more of a mixed market if more stock indexes hold or trade above MarPs while still remaining under the larger levels; and/or safe havens break below MarPs while above their YPs, HPs and Q1Ps. If markets are mixed it is OK to have more in cash, especially if you prefer not to be adjusting on each change of monthly levels (which happens a lot more frequently than the Q, H and Y levels).

If you saw the bullish developments between Wednesday and Thursday last week then you were probably back on the bounce playbook which is a more neutral stance; adding back longs on USA leaders DIA & SPY above the FebPs, and/or reducing safe havens as TLT and GLD that put in small blue bars under resistance with wicks on Thursday. 

The easier trade will be if stock indexes fall back under MarPs; clear shorts and back to bear playbook. But if the stock bounce continues, then we can consider longs above MarPs. We'll carefully watch what happens at the big levels like RTY / IWM / TF YS1s and especially INDU / DIA / YM YPs. I think the latter levels, if they tag, especially decides if correction over or bear market continues. 

See the USA main index post for the yearly and half-year levels. 

Lastly, I have a currency trade idea to watch: long DXY / short EURUSD. I prefer trades that surprise the market and I think it is consensus to be long DXY, but fact is DXY recovered its YP break, lifted from there as support; lifted from 1HP Friday and cleared its Q1P. It will likely open above MarP too. So that means probably above all pivots. Idea valid above the QP at 97.66 especially if it "looks like" support. EUR similar but in reverse with its QP at 109.58, especially if it "looks like" resistance. Daily charts with pivots only (no S or R levels) below to make this idea clear. Of course new MarPs on 3/1. We could also wait to see where those are and/or reaction.

Currency trade idea

There is something interesting going on in DXY / EURUSD today. 

DXY looks like it is rejected from Q1P and breaking 1HP 97.27 for the second time this year. Second breaks are often definitive. 

Meanwhile EURUSD the mirror image is holding its Q1P and reclaiming HP 1.1031, again for the second time this year. 

So pick one or both 1-2 units short DXY long EURUSD but valid only with daily close below DXY HP and above EURUSD HP and that is the stop level on daily close from here. These could be very long term holds depending on what happens at the YPs.