Last full post of 5/17/2017 said $DXY looked "screaming bearish."
$DXY has been under all pivots every trading day since then, and now -6.2% lower than 5/17, and down -11.2% for the year. Now what?
Currencies in a trending mode are relentless. Consider DXY in rally mode from 7/2014 to 3/2015 - up 9 monthly bars in a row. Now it is going the other way, from 3/2017 lower high to 8/2017 6 bars in a row and working on a 7th. Sure some timeframes are getting stretched but there is nothing that says support has to hold.
Bottom line - support that could have held on monthly and weekly charts broke fairly quickly after a weak bounce. The only thing pointing to a possible turn are daily chart RSI divergence and EURUSD YR2. As of now I'm not too concerned about DXY bounce impacting GLD, GDX or global indexes.
At 38% (91.30) of entire rally from 2008 low to 2017 high, with 2 rising MAs to help out as support, 20MA 90.33 and 100MA at 90.71. While they hold? No idea - could just as easily to the 50% level at 87.
Broke through rising M50MA with a very weak bounce that doesn't even show up on this timeframe. On this view, test of monthly 200MA and 50% near 88 seems reasonable. Also note breakdown of 2015-16 lows.
Oversold sure, but not much bounce at weekly 200MA and below 2016 lows. It would take a move about that to get more pop on long side. Also, we are likely to see RSI divergence before a real turn.
Hasn't even touched the D50MA since April. You could say potential daily RSI divergence but that is it.