Weekly strategy sum

Basic idea: if the market is more bullish, that means more longs and fewer safe havens; if bearish then more safe havens and or shorts. Mostly I try to buy what is above pivots and avoid, hedge or short what is below pivots, but once in a while there is a good buy setup from support (or sell setup from resistance). 

So last week 3 of 5 USA main indexes lifted from YS1s (SPX, COMPQ, and NYA) as RTY continued its advance from the low of the year on 2/11 bang on YS2. And between 2/11-12 INDU / DIA / YM held its YS1 as well. This is bullish. 

Meanwhile, both main safe havens TLT and GLD jumped above their YPs and quickly rallied to YR1s, and then have consolidated for 3 weeks. Holding gains is positive, but failing to clear the major levels increases the chance of a larger drop.

If stocks continue to advance, we will probably see more pullback in the safe havens. If safe havens stay firm or even rally back to or above YR1 / 1HR1 levels, then stocks are likely dropping. 

We will also have March pivots to consider. All stock indexes are still below their YPs, 1HPs, and Q1Ps; MarchPs will likely vary. So any stock index that opens below or breaks its MarP is a short candidate, most especially any vehicle that did not trade above its FebP as others did. 

Similarly, safe havens are above their YPs, 1HPs and Q1Ps so if MarPs test and hold as support that is a good buy.

It will be more of a mixed market if more stock indexes hold or trade above MarPs while still remaining under the larger levels; and/or safe havens break below MarPs while above their YPs, HPs and Q1Ps. If markets are mixed it is OK to have more in cash, especially if you prefer not to be adjusting on each change of monthly levels (which happens a lot more frequently than the Q, H and Y levels).

If you saw the bullish developments between Wednesday and Thursday last week then you were probably back on the bounce playbook which is a more neutral stance; adding back longs on USA leaders DIA & SPY above the FebPs, and/or reducing safe havens as TLT and GLD that put in small blue bars under resistance with wicks on Thursday. 

The easier trade will be if stock indexes fall back under MarPs; clear shorts and back to bear playbook. But if the stock bounce continues, then we can consider longs above MarPs. We'll carefully watch what happens at the big levels like RTY / IWM / TF YS1s and especially INDU / DIA / YM YPs. I think the latter levels, if they tag, especially decides if correction over or bear market continues. 

See the USA main index post for the yearly and half-year levels. 

Lastly, I have a currency trade idea to watch: long DXY / short EURUSD. I prefer trades that surprise the market and I think it is consensus to be long DXY, but fact is DXY recovered its YP break, lifted from there as support; lifted from 1HP Friday and cleared its Q1P. It will likely open above MarP too. So that means probably above all pivots. Idea valid above the QP at 97.66 especially if it "looks like" support. EUR similar but in reverse with its QP at 109.58, especially if it "looks like" resistance. Daily charts with pivots only (no S or R levels) below to make this idea clear. Of course new MarPs on 3/1. We could also wait to see where those are and/or reaction.