From last week: "I will do a separate post for the medium term levels to watch for the week, ie, the Feb pivots. If the market drops back down, then at least some of these YS1 / 1HS1 levels will be back in play."
And that is almost exactly where the lows were with huge holds of SPX YS1 1895 (low 1891), COMPQ YS1 4455 (low 4425), NYA YS1 9350 (low 9325), along with oil CLJ6 1HS1 30.77 (low 30.56).
The reason I am watching cash index, ETF and futures levels is because (unfortunately) all of them seem to be in play. Last year I was more focused on the cash index levels (which worked great for NDX on 8/24); but my plan to aggressively buy SPX YS1 at 1833 in late September never triggered as the market held YS1 on the then current ES contract instead. That convinced me to include futures on all levels, not just medium term as I had been doing. And the ETFs have the benefit of free real time monitoring on TradingView as well as several other sectors & countries that are otherwise more difficult to track.
Also, due to pricing differentials on the 8/24/2015 spike low, pivots are more different this year across similar asset classes. Meaning SPX SPY ES should be about the same, but 2016 pivots vary more this year than most other years, so I want to watch which seems to have the most influence on the market. Verdict so far is the cash index yearly levels, but there are definitely some moves coming off the futures and the ETFs as well.
Now on to this week's report on the 5 main USA indexes. All charts weekly with long term levels only. If you are new please see the FAQ for explanation. Levels sometimes look to good to be true (see low of year on the Russell vehicles) but in fact all levels established at the close of 12/31/2015 and fixed for the current period, so that means all of 2016 for yearly pivots and the first six months for first half pivots.
Several key indexes clearly lifting from YS1s is bullish, especially when those levels "look like" support. The indexes that directly tested and held major levels last week: SPX, COMPQ and NYA.
Also, RTY / IWM / TF continues the bounce from YS2 lows (all very near exact), which was basically the low in the market on 2/11. They now are testing the YS1 / 1HS1 area from underneath; a recovery of this area would be major bullish development as this has been the weakest main USA index for many months (so not including sectors like energy). A pause is mixed, a rejection of course is bearish. I think this is one of the most important levels to watch for the coming week.
If the market goes higher, then DIA, YM then INDU may test YPs as well.
We'll also have new March pivots on 3/1 and the first thing I will scan is whether any asset is above or below these levels.
SPX / SPY / ES
SPX clearly lifting from its YS1 last week which is bullish. If the market goes any higher it will is possible that YPs will test on the ES (which will happen before a test of SPX or SPY).
NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
NDX continues the bounce back above YS1; COMPQ held YS1 as support last week like SPX; QQQ tested its YP! And NQ also lifted back above its YS1.
The differential between QQQ and others is due to 8/24/2015 spike low and very annoying. I won't go back to full bullish with QQQ above YP, but could add to bullish considerations if above and bearish if it is rejected.
INDU / DIA / YM
All of these very clearly held YS1 and 1HS1 areas near the lows, which is why I recommended the buy on 2/12. And soon a very critical test of the YPs could be coming up. Right now INDU / DIA / YM are the market leader of these 5 indexes, so I will change gears significantly if these clear the YP / 1HP area. If rejected, however, then it looks like other bear market years testing the YP from underneath after a bounce, and this could and should lead to another significant leg lower.
RTY / IWM / TF
Note the lows of the year on YS2s across the board; now all 3 testing YS1 / 1HS1 area. Recovery would be very bullish for the market, so this is one of the most important things to watch in the coming week.
2015-16 can be summed up this way: YP hold, YR1, attempt to clear YR1, rejected, down to YP, chop with several breaks & recoveries, then sharp drop to 2016 YS2. So, 2015 YR1 to 2016 YS2.
NYA / VTI
NYA also clearly lifting from YS1 / 1HS1 combo which is bullish; VTI already above.