Currencies

Weekly report if time permits on the major crosses. On all charts, I am showing yearly and half-year pivots (long term) on weekly chart and then daily charts with quarterly and monthly (medium term). 

DXY reclaimed YP & HP, bullish. 

Testing QP here, to watch. Back above would be bullish and possible long (above 3 / 4 pivots, and 4th expires end of month) but rejection puts it back into congestion, no trade. 

Similarly, EURUSD breaking back under YP and HP, bearish if maintains. 

But sitting right on the QP here so no position edge until we see reaction from that. 

USDJPY got smashed from the YP, broke the YS1/ 1HS1 combo, and back to 1HS2 / YS2 area. So major support 110-111.

You can see the QP 1 day recovery and subsequent rejection, back under all pivots as of 2/3. Down to Q1S3 here.

AUDUSD not moving that much, but below YP & HP.

QP rejection in larger downtrend usually good setup as short. 

GBPUSD has been in the news recently. From Pivots it has been clearly weaker since Q4 2015 under YP and HP despite trying a few times to reclaim. 

2/16 would have worked as a short, back under all pivots with clear break of FebP. 

Lastly BTCUSD. I was hoping for real run with lift above major pivots first time above both since 2013!

The high was FebR1, but let's see what happens. 

Currencies

To make larger trend status easier to see, here are charts of the main crosses using pivots only (no S or R levels.)

DXY broke YP 4 days but has recovered. Still below 3 other pivots. 

EURUSD recovered its YP for several days, but maybe breaking today.

USDJPY broke under all pivots convincingly on 2/3 and then had a big drop. While we can check various S levels, unlikely to change status in near future. 

AUDUSD holding on to FebP but below the others.

Currencies

Pivots work on these too. Usual big picture view with long term pivots only on DXY, EUR, USDJPY, AUD. 

DXY broke 1HP and testing its YP at 96.48. What matters here is the close of this week; above the YP probably bullish, definitely bearish below. Note DXY has been above its YP since clearly & launching in August 2014, so a break is an important shift in a long term trend. 

EUR mirroring USD here, with break of YP in 2014 then huge slide. So far above its YP for the first time since 2014.

USDJPY has been all above its YP since Abe came on the scene in late 2012 - what a run. The HP showed some weakness in 2H 2015 but the recent negative rate news led to a clear rejection of both the 1HP and YP which I think will be definitive. For now watch YS1 / 1HS1 combo at 115.41 / 115.75.

Lastly the AUD has been below its YP since 2013 with crystal clear rejection in 2014, followed by a big drop. Trend still down but recent low held 1HS1. It would need to clear the 1HP / YP area .7311 / .7496 to turn positive. 

Currencies

Do pivots work on currencies? Yes!

DXY W with long term pivots. DXY lifted above its YP a few times in 2013 only to stall. But in 2014 it tried again and a tremendous move followed, with a key retest high bang on 2015 2HR1. Note this week's break of the 1HP and test of the YP at 96.48 - a huge level to watch going forward.

And here's the Euro, EURUSD. The break of the YP in July 2014 led to a huge drop. Like the DXY testing its YP, the EURUSD also tested its YP for the first time since July 2014 this week.

USDJPY was in the news this week. It has been completely above its yearly pivot since late 2012! But this week the YP broke for a second time, and that should be definitive this year. If YS1 / 1HS1 combo near 115 breaks, then next major support is 110-111.

And the AUDUSD has been completely below its YP since May 2013. China slowdown? Not a surprise here. As long as it stays under the long term pivots of 1HP .731 and YP .749, trend is down.

Lastly, do you think pro Bitcoin traders are using pivots? 2014 highs on the YP / HP combo, 2015 low on the 1HS1 exact and 2015 high very near the YP / 2HR3 exact, and recent support on the YP near exact. Hmm.

Dollar and gold

I've written about gold here on 1/27 and followed up here on 2/1. I haven't talked about the currencies, but pivots work on these too. First, something very interesting has happened with the dollar just in the last few days. Here are the charts: first weekly with long term pivots (yearly & half-year) only, then the daily with the usual view of long term and medium term (quarterly & monthly) as well. 

DXY the dollar index has been entirely above its yearly pivot from mid August 2014, and in fact is the first touch of the level since then. During this time it has been mostly above its half year pivots as well, with a few breaks in 2015 2H that did recover and rally to 2HR1 exact on the highs. So from The Pivotal Perspective, this test of the YP is really important. Above the YP and we can think YR1 at 102.72; below and start thinking YS1 at 92.45.

Here's the daily view. The selling started with a rejection of the FebP. A break of the monthly pivot has happened several times last year, but the difference here is the very next day it broke through Q1P without any attempt to hold, and the 1HP didn't bounce either. Now the YP as I type is caving without any try. Next support is a long way down. 

Meanwhile, gold is following through on recent advances and doing the opposite, clearing its yearly pivot. Using the continuous contract below, you can see GC mostly below both the YP and HP since early 2013. There were a few breakout attempts that quickly failed. I'll address these soon in another post. 

Here's the daily view of the current G6 contract. Unlike the end of 2015, it has been above its monthly pivot in both January and February. Then it cleared the 1HP / Q1P combo. That looked like a failure but came back enthusiastically and cleared again. After a brief pause it has been off to the races. In pivots a lot of the time a second move is definitive, and in this case at the end of a long downtrend it took three tries to really clear and get moving up. 

So the big question here is whether this is normal pullback to support on DXY and another failed breakout attempt in gold, or whether we are seeing a real long term trend change. I don't know, but I do know where to watch to answer this question. DXY YP 96.48 and GC G6 YP 1137 (just continue to update on rollovers).