Dollar strength made headlines last week. Time prevents me from detailed currency analysis these days, though it was part of the routine when I was at a fund.
Main point - DXY convincingly cleared its YP last week, and I expect that to hold going forward. DXY higher will mean lagging performance in DJI and most foreign stocks priced in US dollars.
Q: RSI bottomed near 50, now above all MAs. Point here is that a move to upper band currently 105+ is entirely possible.
M: At very least we might see upper band test of monthly chart so that would mean test of 100 area. I rather like this scenario.
W: DXY pushing back above a nicely rising W200MA as well after that acted as resistance since May. OK you could say RSI near overbought but if DXY wants to rally it will ignore this like 2014.
D: DXY cleared its QP for the 2nd time in April and since then has been pretty strong. It had tested or nearly tagged the YP several times until a big breakout last week. I do not expect this to return under the YP anytime soon.
DXY vs USA mains
From the start of Q2 as the dollar rally got going, no impact to percentage leaders QQQ and IWM, but seems to have been involved in lower returns of DIA and NYA. SPY in the middle.
DXY is composed mostly of dollar vs Euro, Yen, British pound and Canadian dollar. But here is a different way of viewing dollar impact on investable foreign stocks.
Nifty vs INDA
Nifty 9.5% on the year vs -2% for INDA and that is coming after a decent rally to start the second half. Nifty has been entirely above its YP all year, found a low on its HP the first trading day of July then launched to rally above YR1. INDA has traded below its YP for a few days and hasn't come close to YR1.
INDA is designed to match the MSCI India Index which is not the same as the Nifty, but the main point here is the currency impact.
Here it is another way with USD vs INR +9% for the year so far.
For some reason Hang Seng vs FXI doesn't have the same dramatic difference.
But a huge difference on Micex index (Russia) futures vs RSX.
But even this wasn't as terrible as Bovespa vs EWZ, with Bovespa just about flat for the year with EWZ down near -19%.
Sure enough USD vs BRL +20% on the year so far.