USA main indexes

NDX, SPX and NYA are testing resistance levels - YR2 and QR1s respectively. 2018 winners NDX and RUT haven’t done much in Sept and both again testing MPs. However, DJI soared above YR1 last week which should alleviate the concerns about a major trading top.

Bottom line - More charts at resistance along with daily and weekly RSIs at or approaching overbought suggest pullback, but DJI lifting above YR1 helps reduce the chances that we just saw a big top. Translation - pullback then another lift the most likely move.

SPX W: BB tags after January have been short term tops.
SPX W: This view looks better - above HR1 2883 points to YR2 2987.
SPY D: More bearish looking due to ex-dividend but still, QR rejection.
SPY 2H: MP hold earlier in the month was definitive as planned. But RSI reaching 70+ suggests more downside.
SPX sum: Bigger picture above HR1 2883 points to YR2 2987. Short term picture with SPY QR1 rejection and SPY 2H charts recently overbought points to more weakness.

22 3 SPX W.png
22 4 SPX W.png
22 6 SPY 2H.png

NDX W: Vulnerable to selling with weak advance under YR2.
QQQ D: 2 recent attempts to clear YR2 (9/13-14, 9/20-21) and trouble each time.
NDX sum: Still above all pivots on NDX and QQQ (not on NQ). However, trouble at Yr2 for the 3rd time in Sept. MP decides the next move.

DJI W: Very bullish, launch above HR1 that cleared YR1.
DIA D: Soared above YR1 resistance despite RSI overbought.
DJI sum: Could have topped on YR1 but didn’t; instead, bullish clear.

22 10 DIA D.png

RUT W: Still holding above YR2 as support.
IWM D: 3 days below MP then recovery, again testing level.
RUT sum: If MP / YR2 holds as support, then expect another move up to highs.

22 12 IWM D.png

W: Starting to see how definitive the HP test 6 bars ago was.
D: At QR resistance with RSI 69.7 invites pullback.

22 14 NYA W.png
22 13 NYA D.png

USA main indexes

All USA mains are above all pivots. The preferred scenario of bounce from SPX and RUT MPs played out. In addition, NDX recovered its MP which was not the case last week.

So far most tests of resistance areas have meant pause or clear without serious selling.
SPX cleared HR1 2883, and seems to be pointing to YR2 2987.
DJI no selling from HR1 26143, which if maintains then next level up YR1 26504.

However, NDX is below YR2 for the 2nd week in row. RUT is holding above YR2 but the hold of MP has been weaker and seems to be having trouble to lift.

Bottom line - playing pivot holds in up-trending environment has paid several times especially in the 2nd half this year. But heading into the last 10 days of the quarter, I’m always on the watch for institutional re-balancing. If this were to occur we would see NDX and RUT MP breaks. Given NDX YR2 and RUT trouble to lift from MP I think this will be likely unless the market delivers a strong move up in the current week. So if NDX clears YR2 then that will help reduce the bearish threat.

SPX W: Looks very bullish with launch above HR1. Looks like it will try for YR2 near 3000 this year.
SPY D: Near term target QR2 still in play through the end of the month.
ES D: As long as daily moving averages sloping upwards, a good idea to play longs on pivot tests
SPY 2H: SPY touched MP in July and then Sept, so it can be a long stretch between tests in a good trending move.
SPX sum: Move above HR1 2883 bullish and points to YR2 2987. Near term tag of QR2 2925 could happen next week.

NDX: YR2 test and 2nd week under the level. Door is open for selling, but a little higher would look good.
QQQ: YR2 in red arrow, and green arrows show recent pivot holds (mostly MPs, with YR1 holding as support early in July).
QQQ 2H: Showing earlier monthly pivot holds (green arrows), recent break (red arrow) and then hold. It would not take much for another break. Watching.
NDX sum: 2nd weekly bar under YR2. This could be part of a normal pause before blasting higher, or there could be more a dip coming up. We haven’t seen serious selling since Q1 but with quarterly RSI on track to be 90+ I’m watching this carefully.

15 7 NDX W.png

DJI W: So far no selling from HR1 test, but seems to be struggling a bit. If higher then YR1 above.
DIA D: Showing target areas on red (HR1 then YR1) and pivot holds in green arrows.
DJI sum: If DJI can stay above HR1 26143 then YR1 26504 test likely.

15 10 DJI W.png

RUT W: Still above YR2, but last week’s bar notably weak.
IWM D: Green arrows show monthly pivot holds. Contrast to May when two tests then off to races, IWM does seem to getting tired. Still holding MP this month but having trouble to lift.
RUT sum: Only USA main index above YR2 and holding MP several times in Sept, but having trouble to lift.

15 12 RUT W.png

W: Between long term levels.
D: Showing pivot holds and pivot / resistance selling.
NYA sum: A good institutional index and confirming indicator. There have been more false breaks and recoveries on this (reflecting international weakness) than the other USA mains. However, when this index joins in signal either bullish or bearish it rarely fails. So far pivot recovery on 9/11 part of tell for more gains.

USA main indexes

Some bearish developments this week: NDX and NYA both under MPs. This is a bit more threatening with NDX YR2 HR1 rejection and other areas testing - SPX testing HR1, RUT YR2 and DJI HR1. 

Typically pullbacks to pivot and rising MA support are bought more often than they break. So it is possible that buyers are back with the non holiday week and all will be well. But if that doesn't happen, and SPX and RUT both break there monthly pivots with long term levels looking more like rejection, then a deeper pullback could be in the works. 

Bottom line - pulling for bounce but ready to be more defensive if more USA mains are under MPs. 

SPX W: From this view a normal reaction from upper BB and RSI near 70.
SPX W: From this view more threatening if HR1 starts acting as resistance. 
SPY D: SPY hanging on to MP. 
ES D: In this chart I have drawn up arrows where the ES has held various pivots this year, and down arrows where they have broken. Not guaranteed, but odds favor bounce. 
SPY 2H: RSI not yet 30 but nearing areas where buyers have stepped in. First test of MP on this vehicle since early July (ES tagged its MP early August per the other chart).
SPX sum: Short term weakness in a larger uptrend is usually bought. There is a monthly pivot and rising 20MA that both can act as support; usually good setup for bounce. If a bounce does not happen then that may turn into a more important development as HR1 is in play as resistance. 

9 2 SPX W.png
8 2 SPX W.png
8 5 SPY 2H.png

NDX Q: Reminder that the quarterly chart RSI is above 90. The last quarter that was down in a threatening manner was 2015 Q3, 3 years ago. 
NDX W: Uh oh. YR2 and HR1 rejection. 
QQQ D: Red arrow at YR2, orange at MP. Bearish configuration. Next support not far at SepS1.
NDX sum: Something to carefully watch here as YR2 HR1 rejection in process along with break and rejection of MP. 

8 7 NDX W.png
8 8 QQQ D.png

DJI W: 2 bars pausing under HR1 but no selling yet.
DIA D: High bang on HR1, but not much drop and well above MP.
DJI sum: At resistance area, but so far no selling and still above MP. If that clears then YR1 also above. 

8 9 DJI W.png

RUT W: Still above YR2.
IWM D: High on QR1, then pullback to test YR2 and MP area. 
RUT sum: Holding up better than NDX QQQ on this drop. 

W: Not near any long term level.
D: Above QR which could act as support, but below MP which is acting as resistance. 

8 14 NYA D.png

USA main indexes

RUT IWM main index leader blasted to new highs and above YR2. SPX made a new high, but testing HR1. NDX also in a resistance cluster of QR1 HR1 then YR2 above. DJI and NYA bringing up the rear, not yet at long term resistance.

So the thing to no is watch the reactions at these levels. Given the trend of the second half, I think SPX will clear HR1. But I am not so sure that NDX will clear YR2 on the first try. This will be an interesting level to watch. I suppose RUT clearing increases the chances that NDX will do so; however, if pros wanted to lighten up on tech this is where it would happen. 

SPX W: Above YR1 for the 4th bar in a row and soon testing HR1. Above that would start to target YR2, 2987.
SPY D: SPY already at HR1; this week had 2 days of pause, one day weak selling and then a confident advance. 
ES D: Last touches of monthly pivots have been near key lows, AugMP and Jul HP MP area. 
SPY 2H: Latest overbought reading briefly sold, but right back higher in a few days. Last time near oversold quickly scooped up - bullish action. 
SPX sum: SPX breaking out to new highs with HR1 and MR1 (AugR1) just above. Confidently moving to level with just a 2 day brief pause and 1 day weak selling before. Watching for reversals this week but so far strength pointing to getting above. This is especially the case if you consider the market from 2018 second half which is trending up quite nicely, compared to the choppy 2 steps forward 2 steps back of most of the first half. 

26 7 SPY D.png
26 8 ES D.png
26 9 SPY D.png

NDX W: Heading into HR1 and YR2 just above. This will be an interesting area to watch. 
QQQ D: QR1 cleared, HR1 and YR2 just above. 
NDX sum: Helps the bull case for tech to be getting in gear but still in important resistance cluster of QR1 HR1 and especially YR2. If pros wanted to lighten up on tech this is where it would happen so carefully watching reaction from this area. 

26 10 NDX W.png
26 11 QQQ D.png

DJI W: Not at long term resistance yet. Weaker up bar may invite selling. 
DIA D: AugR1 a bit higher then HR1 also in play before it reaches the 2018 high. 
DJI sum: More work to do to test long term resistance, and 2018 high seems a bit far at this point. 

RUT W: Got through YR2 as planned from last week. 
IWM D: Breaking out above a 3 month consolidation. 
RUT sum: Nice looking clear of YR2 so low opportunity cost to hold for higher levels. 

26 15 IWM D.png

W: Still stuck in range of Feb high and low. 
D: Above QR and recently held HP D200MA combo. 
NYA sum: Recent hold of HP and D200MA added to the bullish picture for markets overall. However, clear that international names are still the weak link. 

USA main indexes

Bullish action on 4 of 5 USA mains last week:
SPX had mild break of YR1, then recovered
DJI held AugP exact and back above QR1
RUT also held AugP
NYA held HP and then moved back above all pivots

2018 gainers QQQ and IWM having trouble to push through resistance areas, but so far just going sideways. If other indexes are moving up then a rally on at least one of these is more likely. If picking one to get through I'm still think IWM has the better chance.  

Bottom line - path of least resistance is up. Pivot holds on 3 USA mains, DJI RUT NYA, and a major level slight break and recovery on SPX, usually mean indexes are going higher as the next move. But the second half of August may mean that the 2 indexes that have been sideways, NDX RUT, may continue in a congestion pattern. 

SPX W: 10MA held as support and pushing towards highs. Nice uptrend since the start of the 2nd half.
SPX W: 3rd week above YR1, with the last 2 bars holding the level as support. Opens door to HR1 2883 and then potentially YR2 2987.
SPY D: YR1 level had a mild break and fast recovery. 
ES D: Monthly pivot the low of the month so far.
SPY 2H: First RSI oversold since the start of the second half was quickly scooped up, and SPY moved back above the WP. 
SPX Sum: All trends up. YR1 had a mild break and fast recovery. Maintaining above 2830 means SPX should visit HR1 2883 soon, and potentially higher by year end. Second half is moving quite differently from the first half so far with most bars up, and only 2 bars mild down / sideways. 

18 1 SPX W.png
18 2 SPX W.png
18 3 SPY D.png
18 4 ES D.png
18 5 SPY 2H.png

NDX W: Congesting under HR1 YR2 combo. 
QQQ D: Resistance cluster YR2 HR1 QR1 so far resistance from 7/24.
NQ D: Actually under D10 and D20, a slight bearish divergence compared to SPX SPY ES.
NDX sum: Uptrend intact, but congesting under the major resistance cluster of YR2 HR1 QR1. 

18 8 QQQ D.png
18 9 NQ D.png

DJI W: 3 of last 4 bars have tagged the weekly band but still pushing up.
DJI W: Above long term support, not near resistance.
DIA D: AugP near exact on the low.
Sum: Low of month oh the August pivot, and a fast move back above QR1. Could see HR1 area  above 26000.

18 10 DJI W.png
18 12 DIA D.png

RUT W: Stuck under YR2 since mid June. 
IWM D: AugP exact on the low. 
RUT sum: Stuck under YR2 since mid June, but just held AugP on the pullback and heading back up. A bit stronger than QQQ currently as it is also above all MAs.

18 13 RUT W.png
18 14 IWM D.png

W: Held HP.
D: Nice hold of 2HP, D200MA and back above the AugP the next day. 

18 15 NYA W.png
18 16 NYA D.png

USA main indexes

2018 leaders NDX and RUT approached key resistance clusters and fell back. NDX had near tag of HR1, which is part of a larger YR2 HR1 QR1 cluster; and RUT has been stuck under YR2 since June.

SPX had cleared its YR1 for the 2nd time in early August, and so far the pullback found support at this level.

Laggards DJI and NYA are weaker across the board, with more trouble at quarterly and weekly Bollinger bands. 

Bottom line - to me SPX looks like normal pullback to support, so I'm expecting a bounce as the next move. If so then leaders NDX and RUT may try again at their resistance clusters. At this point I think RUT has a greater chance of clearing its YR2 than NDX. If weakness continues into next week then DJI will likely be the hedging short index vehicle of choice.

SPX W: 2nd week above YR1 at 2830, and as long as that maintains HR1 test remains the target.
SPY D: A few too many trading tops not on pivot resistance this year since April - a bit annoying. 
ES D: Just a normal pullback to rising 10 and 20MAs, with the YR1 level also holding as support. This has been on a clear buy since 7/6 above all pivots and MAs.
SPY 2H: From RSI OB down to weekly support. Looks normal and next move typically bounce.
SPX sum: While I do wonder how long SPX will power up outside the quarterly Bollinger, so far trend gets benefit of the doubt with a normal pullback to support on pivots (YR1), moving averages (10 & 20 daily MAs), and short term support on the weekly pivot (different next week but still, so far near the low). 

11 5 SPY D.png
11 6 ES D.png
11 7 SPY 2H.png

NDX W: Looks more toppy with near test of HR1 and sharp drop from that high. Also note: NDX quarterly chart (not shown) RSI 90+ and has closed outside its BB 4 quarters in a row, now working on #5.
QQQ D: Doesn't look too bad, just some shuffle off highs. I do think this QR1 HR1 YR2 area will not breakout so easily though. Note the action in the first half from these levels. 
ND Q: Still above all pivots and MAs. If lower then D50 along with AugP is support. 
NDX sum: Everyone knows NDX has been the leader of the bull market. Even just tracking NDX over SPX has generated substantial outperformance for most of the decade. But quartelry RSI is 90+ and when these things end it may not be gradual. Currently the index has tested a resistance cluster of YR2 HR1 QR1 twice and so far not getting through. I don't think the index will be powering up through these levels in August so easily. 

11 8 NDX W.png
11 9 QQQ D.png
11 10 NQ D.png

DJI Q: Pushing the band but last quarter and this one so far more difficulty to trade above (as SPX and especially NDX are doing without any issues).
DJI M: Down for the month so far. 
DJI W: Trouble at the weekly BB 2 of the last 3 weeks. 
DJI W: Above 2HP, but not near any long term resistance. 
DIA D: Shuffle at QR1 with 3 tries above and 3 breaks. 
DJI sum: Having trouble at quarterly and weekly BBs and lagging SPX and NDX. Given DXY and international issues, this is likely to continue. 

11 11 DJI Q.png
11 12 DJI M.png
11 13 DJI W.png
11 14 DJI W.png
11 15 DIA D.png

RUT W: Stuck under YR2 since 6/11 bar. One could also say 2 decent selling attempts and itis back to the level for the 5th or so time. With DXY strength this is poised to resume leadership which implies clearing this level.
IWM D: Above Aug P, but this chart shows how clearly YR2 has acted as resistance. The move from 4/2 low to 5/1-3 higher lows then move to YR2 is a thing of beauty to my eyes. 
RUT sum: Stuck under YR2 since June, but back near highs. I don't know if it will get above but given macro situation I think more chance of RUT clearing YR2 than NDX as this point. 

11 16 IWM D.png

NYA W: Looks more like DJI.
NYA W: Above 2HP, but probably will be first to break if weakness continues. 
NYA D: Still above AugP though it too back under QR1.

11 17 NYA W.png
11 18 NYA W.png
11 19 NYA D.png

USA main indexes

All 5 USA main indexes are above all pivots, a basic bullish configuration. AugPs had test or near test and all held so far. SPX, DJI and NYA cleared resistance levels last week (YR1 and QR1s respectively).

This is all bullish so the right thing is to set sighs on higher level targets. Interestingly, RUT IWM which had been the clear leader early in Q2 has been unable to clear YR2 and now poised to lead to downside should there be any weakness.

W: SPX clearing YR1 opens door to HR1 / retest of highs.
D: SPY big buying from near test of AugP; clear YR1 points to HR1 target.
ES: AugP near exact on the low.
SPY 2H: Very bullish working off of overbought conditions; quick drop and a few days below a WP and then back above. 
SPX sum: After dropping from YR1 area and JulR2 top, SPX had a few days of shuffle and mild pullback to near AugP (exact on ES futs) which was bought big time. SPX finished above the YR1 which means next move more likely to HR1 which is essentially test of 2018 highs.

4 1 SPX W.png
4 2 SPY D.png
4 3 ES D.png
4 4 SPY 2H.png

NDX W: Mild drop from HR1 with 2 relatively tame red bars and already moving back up.
QQQ D: AugP bought. Should see test of resistance cluster of QR1 HR1 YR2.
NDX sum: Should see retest of resistance cluster QR1 HR1 YR2.

4 6 NDX W.png
4 5 QQQ D.png

DJI W: Between long term levels.
DIA D: Clearing QR1 for the 3rd time. 
DJI sum: Above QR1 bullish for near term. 

4 8 DJI D.png

RUT W: YR2 stopped the rally 3x. Above AugP but any further weakness will break. 
IWM D: AugP defended so far.

4 9 RUT W.png
4 10 IWM D.png

W: Between long term levels.
D: Above AugP and cleared QR1 for the 2nd time, bullish.

4 12 NYA D.png

USA main indexes

All 5 USA main indexes back above all long & medium term pivots is bullish. QQQ has resumed as main index leader as IWM has faded a bit with again trouble at YR2 then JulR1. SPY / SPX looks like it should reach QR1 YR2 cluster 282 / 2820-30. Better for bull case for NYA to stay above HP. 

SPX M: Monthly close high at 2823 additional factor to watch.
SPX W: Strong move up from 2HP in process; should reach YR2, then if above can think HR2.
SPY D: All Q1 highs directly on levels; not so in Q2. Hoping Q3 back to normal and if so YR2 at 282 decent bet from here. 
ES D: Above all pivots and MAs with MACD positive and RSI not overbought from 7/9 - this means healthy up with room to move higher. 
SPY 2H: RSI near overbought (70) twice on this rally so far; January aside, this is where pros have sold. 
SPX sum: Base case is going for SPX YR2 QR1 cluster at 2820-30, which also happens to the monthly close high area. Upside for the coming week may not be as easy as 7/6-12 but pivot status gives bulls benefit of doubt. 

14 5 ES D.png

NDX W: Looks like HR1 / YR2 near 7500 doable. 
QQQ D: QR1, 2HR1 then YR2 all 182-184.
NDX sum: Power move up in play despite last month's toppy bar; new highs last week. Should reach QR1 at least and ideally HR2 or YR2.

DJI sum: Above 2HP is bullish. Expecting to see JulR1 and maybe QR1. 
W: Recovered HP weakens the bear case. 
D: Watching JulR1 then QR1.

14 9 DJI W.png

RUT W: Trouble at YR2 but weak selling looks like it try again.
IWM D: Daily chart looks a bit weaker with JulR1 rejection last 3 trading days. Also, hasn't made new high like QQQ.
RUT sum: Was leader on rally last week but fading with YR2 stopping the move and then below JulR1 whereas QQQ and SPY are above JulR1. This is interesting turn of events and given proximity to start of 2H worth bearish in mind. At this point if reducing longs next week IWM would be first to go (compared to XBI, QQQ, SPY); and conceivably could turn into main index hedge which it hasn't been for all of Q2. 

14 11 RUT W.png
14 12 IWM D.png

W: Above HP is bullish but not convincing and may fade.
D: Above HP for 3 of last 4 trading days. Better for bull scenario to stay above HP.

14 14 NYA D.png

USA main indexes

Last week numerous long term support levels (pivots and MAs) held, and 3 of 5 USA mains finished the week strong above all pivots. This is bullish as most indexes aren't yet at resistance levels or Bollinger bands yet, and even RSIs on 2H charts are not yet overbought. Path of least resistance is higher.

Whether IWM, QQQ and SPY go for higher level targets sooner or later depends on DIA and NYA 2HP. In other words, it would be a lot more bullish if all 5 USA mains were above all pivots instead of just 3 of 5.  

Upside limited scenario would be IWM topping at YR1, and then SPY and QQQ topping on JulR1s, as we see DIA 2HP rejection. This could certainly happen as it is summertime and a lot of global concerns with trade war etc. But if we think in terms of definitive move beginning near quarter change, then we should at least consider the bullish surprise scenario which means targets of IWM QR1+ 173 (above YR1), QQQ QR1-YR2 area 181-184, and SPY back to test YR1 282.

SPX W: Back above all rising MAs, not overbought - room to go up. 
SPX W: Arrow at 2HP - just had huge hold of long term support. Next major resistance is the YR1 at 2830.
SPY D: Easier to see what just held - near test of Q3P, 2HP exact, then MP (arrow) was resistance for 1 day then back to level then launch. 
ES D: Definitive move seems to be 6/28+ hold of major support. Note MACD not even positive yet so barring immediate reversal this suggests early in the move should the blue line cross positive. 
SPY 2H: 2H RSI not even OB (70+) yet. 
SPX sum: Just had huge hold of 2HP and quickly back above all pivots and MAs on both daily and weekly charts. Room to go higher as resistance on pivots, Bollinger bands and overbought RSI not even close. Near term first target JulR1, but bigger picture target has to be YR1 at 2830 as long as above the 2HP at 2707.

7 4 ES D.png
7 5 SPY 2H.png

NDX W: Although more volatility in 2018 this is still a phenomenal trend not even tagging the W50MA on this year's pullbacks. W10 just held.
NDX W: YR1 turned into support opening door to see HR1 / YR2. 
QQQ D: JulR1 already within reach, then next level of targets 181+.
QQQ 2H: Friday open move was back above all pivots and zoom from there. 
NDX sum: No rebalancing going on here - already back to highs. Above YR1 points to HR1 / YR2 area near 7500.

7 9 NDX W.png
7 6 NDX W.png
7 7 QQQ D.png
7 8 QQQ 2H.png

DJI W: Still above rising W50MA = bull market. 
DJI W: However, below 2HP - first long term weakness since early 2016, and first demotion since 12/2015
DIA D: D200MA and QP holding, but resistance at JulP and then 2HP. Above that would help the higher targets on the other indexes.

7 12 DJI W.png

RUT W: Held W10MA.
RUT W: Zoomed back to YR2. 
IWM D: Already at JunR1 with YR2 just above. 
RUT sum: Pivotal main index leader, back above all pivots on 7/5 before the big launch in other indexes. Test of highs likely at minimum.

7 13 RUT W.png
7 15 IWM D.png

W: Saving bull market, above rising W50MA. 
W: Rallying to 2HP. Since less traded, this index more likely to break and recover than others. Still, often a good tell.
D: Held QP then back above MP and now back above rising D200MA. 

7 16 NYA W.png
7 18 NYA D.png

USA main indexes

Among these 5 main indexes, IWM was the clear leader in Q2. It was the first to recover above all pivots in early April, then remained above all pivots with exception of fractional break on 4/30. This happened as all the other main indexes were below Q2Ps, a glaring divergence. Focusing on this paid off with a ~10%+ rally off the early May lows, far outpacing the others. In fact, after launching back above all pivots on 5/4 there was only 1 trading day below a WP, and was again the last day of the month. 

But last week IWM ran into YR2 and got smacked. The most recent Total market view emphatically emphasized that the YR2 / HR2 area was probably good to take profits. There were several reasons for this judgment - major resistance levels, how they have reacted this year compared to last year, RSIs across timeframes, sentiment, and lack of larger participation of other indexes in the rally (only QQQ had made a new high for 2018 in June).

I'm typing up more detail on this today because this move is what The Pivotal Perspective is all about. We focus on strength technical strength - first above pivots, what is holding when others are breaking. This often (not always but often enough if you are comparing risk assets to risk assets and not just risk to defensive names) is the next leader. Then we want to hold, especially above nicely rising daily MAs and/or weekly pivots. Take profits or hedge at major resistance or when there are multiple signs of likely exhaustion. Now we can consider re-entry or try to spot the larger theme for Q3. 

The leaders, IWM and QQQ, look most vulnerable to a drop. SPY which has been middling seems like it could go either way. DIA and NYA have been beaten up, but there is a case for a bounce though they are technically weaker below Q2Ps. Q2 was no exception with the low on all 5 USA main indexes on 4/2, the first trading day of the quarter. 

I have said many times on this site that end/beginning of quarters are great times to be watching for the next larger move. I think it is good to have already raised cash. A pure bullish scenario would be a bounce back on all 5 USA mains with DIA and NYA back above Q2Ps with IWM and QQQ moving back to highs. This seems unlikely to happen. A pure bearish scenario could occur if IWM and QQQ move lower, and DIA stays under its Q2P. This seems a bit more likely to me. But perhaps most likely seems like a mean reversion with winners getting sold and losers continuing bounce. 

SPX W: This doesn't look too threatening; could be normal pause.
SPX W: But below HR1 looks a bit more serious, especially with high of year on HR2.
SPY D: SPY also showing resistance on HR1. 
ES D: MACD almost turning negative, with 10MA already resistance and D20 turning into resistance on Friday.  
SPY 2H: Weakening - under WP all last week. 
SPX sum: Pause at HR1, with ES daily chart looking a bit weaker. 

23 2 SPX W.png
23 5 SPY 2H.png

NDX M: 2000H / 2002L 161% = 7305 pretty close so far.
NDX W: Doji bar with perfect BB divergence after multi week run up suggests next move down.
NDX D: High near JunR2; so far holding above March highs; below that could more threatening.
NQ U: But this still looks stronger, just a simple pullback to a rising 20MA.
NDX sum: Potential for a decent top there on interesting monthly 161% extension, doji bar, and JunR2 - but we'll see how far it drops or if rising 20MA bounces again. 

23 6 NDX M.png
23 7 NDX W.png
23 8 NDX D.png
23 9 NQ.png

DJI W: For all the news last week about 9 days down this doesn't look that bad - far less damage then 2 other 2 week declines this year. Attempt to clear W20MA didn't last.
DIA D: Under QP the last 4 trading days. 
DIA sum: Under QP is bearish.  

23 11 DIA D.png

RUT W: Inviting sellers. 
RUT W: YR2 stopped the move as expected.
IWM D: 1 day mistake above YR2 then wham. 
IWM 2H: Above WP all days except 5/29 since 5/4. Amazing run, but expect to see below WP next week.
RUT sum: Doji bar at YR2 with RSIs at historical extremes just 2 days ago, in a crowded trade, with quarter end profit taking and re-balancing approaching. This should go lower.

23 12 RUT W.png
23 13 RUT W.png
23 15 IWM 2H.png

W: Still above a rising W50MA. So, still a bull market. 
W: Still above YP and HP - still a bull market. 
D: Below QP 5 days but strong rebound from MP and back above D200MA.
NYA sum: Below QP and back down to D200MA area which has been a battleground several times this year. Long term trends still intact for now.

23 16 NYA W.png
23 17 NYA W.png
23 18 NYA D.png

USA main indexes

Leaderboard pretty clear - QQQ and IWM, with QQQ at a new price and close high on 6/14, and IWM price high 6/12 with close high 6/15. In terms of momentum these are both reaching late 90s levels and if time permits I'll try to do more on that this weekend. QQQ has soared above all major resistance with only JunR2 the next level; but not so for IWM, with HR2 YR2 area overhead a great area to take profits from early May longs and perhaps try speculative shorts.

SPX in the middle, but for now bullish holding above HR1. 

DIA and then NYA bringing up the rear with totally different action; well off January 2018 highs, with NYA back testing its Q2P.

Long / overweight IWM and QQQ and avoiding DIA has been great way to play the USA mains in Q2.

SPX W: Upper BB would seem to be capping upside here.
SPX W: But so far above HR1 which is positive; could reach YR1. If back under HR1 would look more bearish.
SPY D: SPY Ex-dividend move, but still above HR1 slightly.
ES U D: I don't like that rollover contracts with the 'wrong' yearly levels are still in play, but they are. 
SPY 2H: Only a few 2 hours bars below weekly pivots since May 7.
SPX set sum: Upside seems to be limited although so far maintaining above HR1s means bulls keeping the ball. ES (U) YR1 also key level at 2790 to watch.

16 3 SPX W.png
16 4 SPX W.png
16 6 ES U D.png
16 7 SPY 2H.png

NDX Q: If time permits I'll do a study on how far highs and closes outside the bands - this has got to be rivaling late 90s. 
NDX Q: Fib fans take note.
NDX W: Pushing the band.
NDX W: Blasted above YR1 and then through HR2.
QQQ D: 1 day bear wonder at March highs then hold HR2 QR1 as support and raced higher. 
QQQ 2H: Momentum could be slowing just a little but that's all to say - incredible run the last 6 weeks.
NDX sum: Along with IWM the main index leader. Above earlier March 2018 highs, held above YR2 and QR1. Next pivot resistance is JunR2. Tech is going crazy compared to the other USA indexes but beware quarter end re-balancing which in Q2 often begins now, before the 7/4 holiday, as opposed to Q4/Q1 which begins after the winter break. 

16 13 NDX Q.png
16 9 NDX W.png
16 10 NDX W.png
16 12 QQQ 2H.png

DJI W: Sharply falling upper BB 'should be' resistance.
DJI W: Bewteen long term levels (SPX testing that HR1 in comparison, and NDX above HR2!)
DIA D: Above all pivots; fell back under JunR1. 
DIA sum: Obviously lagging. 

16 14 DJI W.png
16 15 DJI W.png
16 16 DJI D.png

RUT Q: Might be the furthest outside the Q BB ever. Only 1997 Q3 looks like it could compare. 
RUT W: 2 consecutive closes outside the BB is rare and often near trading tops. 
RUT W: YR2 HR2 looking good to take gains and perhaps short. 
IWM D: What a run above a rising 10MA every day but sonce since 5/4. Still I think YR2 stops the move. 
RUT sum: Paying attention to leadership in April and May gave overweight to IWM. But now I think time to be locking in gains near HR2 / YR2 and could be speculative short. 

16 17 RUT Q.png
16 18 RUT W.png
16 20 RUT W.png
16 21 IWM D.png

W: Looks more like DJI.
D: 2 days above JunR1 and then that was it; back to QP. 

16 22 NYA W.png

USA main indexes

Throughout Q2 we saw signs of professional selling with quarterly Bollinger band levels acting as resistance again and again on SPX, NDX YR1 acting as resistance for 3 weeks, and DJI (Dow Indu) falling back inside its Q band after a brief poke above.

However, NDX/QQQ blasted through its YR1 last week to join IWM above a yearly level, and high test and potential new highs seem easily within reach. SPY also above all pivots 'should' go for pivot resistance at HR1 for a decent top. DJI/DIA could move above all pivots by moving just a bit higher.

Bottom line is that although recognizing the bullish moves of 5/4-9 I have been skeptical of a move to new highs. Tech strength is proving me wrong. If a bearish scenario does play out it looks obvious that DJI and other international names will be the easier shorts. 

SPX Q: Band value 2747, quarterly close high 2742. Resistance or not? 
SPX M: Held pullback to 10MA. So far nixing RSI divergence.
SPX W: Above all MAs with 10MA acting as support. Stuck at 61% Fib resistance from highs the last few weeks.
SPX W: Looking like move to HR in the works.
SPY D: Above all pivots with solid support at QP, JunP and the 5/29 low. 
SPY 2H: Last 2 key lows highlighted in green. Unlike February and late March/early April lows, the two May lows are much more confident - price not even reaching support when it is scooped up and RSI bottoming very near 30 each time. Earlier lows broke and went below 30. Also note last week had two moves under the WP only to finish above and on a high. 
SPX sum: Throughout Q2 I have thought resistance limited due to upper quarterly band and range bound market theme in general. However May played out quite bullish with two impressive holds of key support and June starting strong. Above all pivots and MAs on daily charts in all timeframes gives the bulls the benefit of the doubt - next higher level resistance target is 2776 SPX / 276.86 SPY.

2 4 SPX Q.png
2 5 SPX M.png
2 6 SPX W.png
2 7 SPX W.png
2 8 SPY D.png
2 9 ES D.png

NDX Q: After Q1 toppy bar I never thought it would follow with another push outside the band but that is exactly what is happening so far. 
NDX M: New highs easily within reach.
NDX W: Unlike SPX, NDX never tagged W50MA or lower band. Back above all MAs from the 4/30 bar. 
NDX W: Blast through YR1 and soon at HR2.
QQQ D: Already at another cluster - HR2 and QR1, but blasted through YR1. 5/30 close above and 5/31 closed above by .02 were tells, as well as MayR1 acting as support since 5/9.
NQ D: 20MA acted as support next exact 2x.
QQQ 2H: Lastly time RSI fully OS (30 or lower) was 3/28. RSI OB here (70+) but with new highs so close seems more likely to ignore. Also note 5/30 comeback to quickly back above all pivots. 
NDX sum: Blasted through YR1 after being stuck there since 5/10. Already at another cluster of HR / QR and then JunR just above. 

2 11 NDX Q.png
2 12 NDX M.png
2 13 NDX W.png
2 14 QQQ D.png
2 15 NQ D.png
2 16 QQQ 2H.png

DJI Q: Band value 24767, quarterly high above but price inside. 
DJI M: 2 weak up moves from the 10MA. 
DJI W: Below a falling 20MA. 
DIA D: Under Q2P.
DIA 2H: DIA not staying above WP for much more than 2 weeks at a time.
DJI sum: Weaker in every respect. However a bit higher would resolve everything in bull favor by reclaiming QP. 

2 17 DJI Q.png
2 18 DJI M.png
2 19 DJI W.png
2 20 DIA D.png
2 21 DIA 2H.png

Q: Also well outside the Q BB. 
M: Near the upper band.
W: 2 3 weeks above YR1 HR1 cluster. 
D: A lot of support below YR1 HR1 QR1 JunP but didn't participate much in Friday's party. A tell for June?
2H: Above WPs since the 5/4 move except 5/29 one day bear wonder.

2 22 RUT Q.png
2 23 RUT M.png
2 25 IWM D.png
2 26 IWM 2H.png

Q: Still looks like pro selling. 
M: Barely holding on to 10MA. Monthly 10MA important for some allocation models. 
W: Has been able to hold YP or HP for 11 bars with only 1 break that immediately reversed!
D: Several breaks of D200MA, but only 2 days below the YP. Under QP, still above JunP which is about where the D200MA is now. 

2 27 NYA Q.png
2 28 NYA M.png
2 30 NYA D.png

USA main indexes

The last two weeks have been a deadlock for stocks. After 5/10 most indexes have been unable to go higher, but at the same time, most have threatened to drop and then held. 

IWM cleared its major cluster YR1 HR1 QR1 combo, but momentum seems weakening; this needs to hold for the bull case.
QQQ has tested its YR1 for 8 of the last 12 bars, but unable to clear so far.
SPY is hanging around its MayR1 without making a definitive move either way.
DIA has held its QP as support for 8 of the last 11 bars.
NYA weaker, moving back under its QP so losing status of above all pivots.

So what will it be? Will DIA continue to hold and QQQ break above YR1? Or will the QQQ YR1 top hold and DIA break down?

I think higher timeframe resistance is in play. This means SPX quarterly BB at 2744 and exact high 2742, RUT monthly BB 1646 and high so far 1639, and very clear selling at the NYA Q BB of 12822 with quarterly high at 12853. If this idea is right then the next larger move will be down. But with 4 of 5 USA main indexes above all pivots, we would want to see additional confirmations before acting too much on this idea. 

SPX Q: Q Bollinger band 2744, exact high so far 2742.
SPX M: Holding rising 10MA, but glaring RSI divergence forming.
SPX W: Above MAs and weak selling, but 61% resistance. 
SPX W: Between long term levels.
SPY D: Above all pivots; hanging around MayR1 since 5/10 without going much higher and without following through on rejections. Friday's close was slightly back under MR1.
ES D: Above all pivots, above all MAs except 10MA. 
SPX Sum: Again like last week there are signs of professional selling with the double top at 2742 just 2 points from the quarterly Bollinger band. This happens to be near 61% resistance on the cash index. But there were chances to go lower last week and D100MA has continued to act as support, holding for 7 of the last 9 bars on ES. I think the higher timeframe resistance idea wins out and next larger move is down. 

26 3 SPX Q.png
26 4 SPX M.png
26 5 SPX W.png
26 6 SPX W.png
26 7 SPY D.png

NDX W: YR1 resistance. 
QQQ D: YR1 resistance in play from 5/10.

26 10 NDX W.png
26 11 QQQ D.png

W: Between levels.
D: Continues to hold QP support - after the 5/10 clear, it has held for 8 of the last 11 bars. 

26 13 DIA D.png

RUT W: Doji bar just above YR1. Holding above is bullish but with weakening momentum this could break very easily. 
IWM D: Still above YR1 HR1 QR1 combo cluster.

26 15 IWM D.png

W: Looking more vulnerable. 
D: Highs on MayR1 and back under QP. 

26 16 NYA W.png

USA main indexes

Most indexes saw some decline from resistance last week: SPY dropped under MR1 then that level was resistance for the rest of the week; QQQ dropped harder from YR1 tag; DIA topped slightly above MR1 to drop under it the next day and back to testing QP; NYA similar with top exact on on MR1 and down to test QP. Only IWM had a one day pullback and then went higher above resistance cluster to finish the week.

My preferred scenario is that quarterly Bollinger bands are resistance. These are all upward sloping so it is possible that indexes "push the bands" in a slowing momentum rally, but it is also possible that we are about to see another tradeable move lower. SPX band 2742, exact high 2742; NDX band 6816, so currently at 6866 is still a bit outside; INDU band 24787, so far Q2 high just a few points above at 24994 and currently 24715 back just under the level. 

If this idea is correct then DIA QP is about to break and NDX/QQQ about to lead lower. For this to play out the first tell would be more USA main indexes below weekly pivots; last week, only QQQ finished under its WP.

SPX Q: Pushing the Q Bollinger band, current value 2742. My expectation is that this level is resistance for the rest of Q2 which implies limited upside and more risk of drop. 
SPX M: Note RSI pausing at the 70 level. To trained eyes this is an important factor for the next larger move as the series drops usually occur with RSI peaks in this area and not above (5/2015, 7/2007, 3/2000 monthly RSI highs 70.7, 72.4 and 68.4 respectively).
SPX W: W50MA (purple) definitive hold on early April low test, now at 20MA (orange) which is part of the deciding factor for next week.
SPY D: Resistance at MR1 for 4 days last week but no serious drop. 
ES D: 2nd time above all pivots on Q2 on 5/9; currently above all pivots and MAs.
SPX bottom line uptrends intact but momentum weakening. Basic preference is for upper Q Bollinger band to act as resistance so that means price stops cold at the 2742 area which so far is the exact high. That said SPY under MayR1 4 days last week without any serious drop. Weekly pivots will be an interesting tell for the next move. 

20 2 SPX M.png
20 3 SPX W.png
20 5 SPY D.png
20 6 ES D.png

NDX Q: Somehow has pushed up outside the Q BB again 6817.
NDX M: But resistance at the monthly close high. 
NDX W: YR1 stopped the rally last week. 
QQQ D: YR1 rejection but just mild pullback to MR1 so far. 
NQ D: Above all pivots again on 5/4; Friday closed above all MAs except 10. 
NDX Sum: YR1 so far has stopped the rally. Still well above medium term pivots so short term (ie weekly and daily) will be an interesting tell for next week. 

20 7 NDX Q.png
20 9 NDX W.png
20 10 QQQ D.png

INDU Q: Testing Q BB of 24787. 
DIA D: Sitting on QP which led 4 days last week without breaking - keep watching.
INDU Sum: If idea that Q BBs are resistance from there, then QP is about to break. 

20 12 DJI Q.png
20 13 DIA D.png

IWM D: USA main index leader as IWM above all long & medium term pivots from 4/12 with exception of fractional break on 4/30. May started teh month with 3 definitive holds of MP then a launch. Brief pullback from resistance cluster and then zoomed above. Definite win for the bulls and the best long main index long vehicle for May. Maintaining above YR1 helps the bull case.

20 14 IWM D.png

Q: BB value 12842, so far high 12821. 
D: Above all pivots on 5/10 but resistance two days later on MayR1 and then down; testing QP again.

20 16 NAY D.png

USA main indexes

As of last week I thought bulls had the ball and next move would be to "higher end of recent ranges meaning MayR1 or maybe higher on the leaders."

So this played out, now what? Given daily Bollinger bands and current resistance levels in play - SPY MayR1, QQQ YR1, DIA MayR1, IWM cluster - we could easily see a reaction down. But if all 5 main indexes remain above all pivots then I would expect the pullback to be temporary and another move towards highs. If DIA breaks under its QP again I will change turn and start thinking about the chance of another key top - after all QQQ YR1 and IWM YR HR and QR cluster could be enough for a decent turn.

In sum, while last week was a higher confidence play for bounce, this week there is bit tougher judgment. Indexes are at resistance in the context of a bull move. The task is to judge the likely path - immediate clear (less likely to my eyes), pause or small pullback then clear (possible), or decent drop (also possible).

SPX Q: Back to the upper BB currently 2746.
SPX M: Looking good with 10MA hold for 3 closed bars and also current May bar.
SPX W: Great looking hold of lower BB and rising 50MA; room to go up
SPX D: BB suggests limited upside or pullback before higher.
SPX W long term pivots: Key low bang on HP.
SPY D long term & medium term pivots: 2nd move above QP; currently near MayR1.
ES D: Back above all pivots and MAs except 100 as of Weds 5/9
Sum: Listing all the Bollinger band charts to show the conflict: monthly and weekly charts look great, but quarterly and daily both suggesting limited upside. The Pivotal Perspective is that bulls winning with 2nd move back above the QP last week. Near term resistance to watch is MayR1.

12 10 SPX Q.png
12 11 SPX M.png
12 13 SPX D.png
12 16 ES D.png

NDX W: Testing YR1 again.
QQQ D: Led market with jump above all pivots on 5/4.
Strong tech often good for the market; testing YR1.

12 17 NDX W.png
12 18 QQQ D.png

INDU W: HP on the recent low.
DIA D: Fractional clear of QP on 5/10 and higher 5/11; MayR1 resistance.

12 19 DJI W.png

W: Key low in Q2 bang on HP 4/2, now testing YR HR QR combo.
D: Above all pivots every day on close for May. Major resistance cluster above.

12 22 IWM D.png

NYA W: Held YP and launched above HP.
NYA D: Also back above all pivots last week. 

USA main indexes

Leader IWM held above all pivots last week, and QQQ joined IWM back above its QP and MP. The other 3 USA mains, SPX, INDU (DJI) and NYA, again held long term support levels - HPs D200MAs and another YP test and hold for NYA. 

After massive hold of D200MA, bulls have the ball. I think there is decent chance for a move back to the higher end of recent ranges meaning MayR1 or maybe higher on the leaders. SPY will have to clear Q2P, DIA stay above MP, and NYA stay above HP for rally scenario to be on.

I included quarterly charts on SPX and NDX to show the bigger picture - SPX quarterly BB likely resistance through June. This means limited upside on the rally if that indeed plays out as preferred. 

SPX Q: After dropping back inside the BB in Q1, Q2 tested the upper band and did not exceed it. This means 2730 likely resistance through June.
SPX M: So far pullback has held M10MA for 3 complete bars and starting on a 4th this year. Watch RSI - if it does not exceed 70 on the next move up then the following larger move should be lower.
SPX W: This looks to have more potential with several lows near rising W50MA. Watching W20MA and on the next move up.
SPX W LT pivots: High of year on HR2, low of year YP; 2nd high near HR1, other lows near HP.
SPY D LT & MT pivots: NEeds to clear QP and turn positive on the year again.
ES D: A bit more work to clear QP, and D50MA also there.
Sum: Another hold of long term support. Due to daily and weekly charts, the stage is set for more on the rally. However, upside likely limited to Q chart BB.

6 1 SPX Q.png
6 2 SPX M.png
6 3 SPX W.png
6 5 SPY D.png

Q: Still pushing outside the BB.
M: Nice hold of rising 10MA, and no glaring divergence on RSI yet.
W: Already above rising W20MA.
W LT pivots: If stays above HR1 retest of YR1 looks more possible.
D LT & MT pivots: MayR1 / YR1 targets; above all pivots. 
NQ D: Also above all MAs and MACD positive
NDX: Still the considerably stronger index compared to SPX on pivots, moving averages, Bollinger bands and RSIs on various timeframes. 

6 7 NDX Q.png
6 8 NDX M.png
6 9 NDX W.png
6 10 NDX W.png
6 12 NQ.png

INDU W: 6 weekly tests or near tests of HP this year; 4 of these reached level exact. 
DIA D: Huge hold of D200MA, but a lot more work to do to reclaim QP. Notice the highs: YR1 in Jan, FebP, Q2P overshoot by 2 days. 
INDU: Structure more like SPX but weaker; holding of long term support and recovery of MP which is definite positive, but well under QP.

6 13 INDU W.png
6 14 DIA D.png

RUT W: Between long term support and resistance. 
IWM D: Held above all pivots (except for one fractional break on 4/30) since 4/11.
RUT: Relative leader, has been been above all pivots for weeks. If other main indexes continue rally this should have decent chance at MayR1.

6 15 RUT W.png
6 16 IWM D.png

W: Hold above YP and HP.
D: Huge save of YP but if rally is to continue this needs to lift further above D200MA.

6 17 NYA W.png

USA main indexes

USA main indexes continue to hold long term uptrends as defined by YP, HP and D200MAs. These could have broken down but didn't. However, medium term trends remain mostly weaker, with SPY, DIA and NYA below QPs. QQQ was able to recover its QP fractionally for one day so this is some improvement - and a very interesting tell level for the coming week.

Uncharacteristic leader IWM above all pivots from 4/11 (not counting short term WP and DP) and currently above all daily MAs except 10. 

Simple bullish scenario is SPY joining QQQ above its QP, and QQQ continuing to rally above its QP.
Other way is QQQ break and SPY rejection of its QP area. 

SPX W: Still holding above long term support.
SPY D: REsistance at QP and MP, though Friday showed weak selling.
ES D: D200MA held again this week - and on the 24 hour futures chart this was the 11th daily bar to have test or near test this year. Only once of these broke on daily close slightly.
SPY 2 Fib charts: Last two turns not really on pivots (pesky) but typical 61.8% of prior swings. 
Sum: Long term trends remaining intact, but medium term trends per QP and MP not up yet. Watching reaction from Q2P.

29 1 SPX W.png
29 2 SPY D.png
29 14 SPY D.png
29 15 SPY D.png

NDX W: Note highs on HR2, then selling from YR1, and most recently stuck under HR1. Big players are selling their tech stocks. 
QQQ D: Despite the huge gap on Friday, session fell all the way back to Q2P. Interesting decision area. 
NQ D: Briefly above all pivots but rejected by D50 then MP and back down to QP. 
Sum: Still more positive YTD% but weekly chart clear selling from long term resistance. Watching QP this week.

W: Holding above long term levels.
D: But negative YTD and below MP. 

29 7 INDU W.png
29 8 DIA D.png

W: High of year bang on HR1 and very near YR1; low of year near YP.
IWM: Holding above all pivots (not counting short term weekly and daily) sine 4/12 with fractional clear of QP then follow through and tests. 

29 9 RUT W.png
29 10 IWMD.png

W: Held HP.
D: Back above MP as well. 
D: D200MA hold, D50MA resistance. 

29 11 NYA W.png
29 12 NYA D.png
29 13 NYA D.png

USA main indexes

4 of 5 USA mains are above all pivots. INDU/DIA closed fractionally above its MP as well, but my view considering the high and close is really not definitive. And yet once again this year "resistance matters" with selling 3/13-14 from R levels: QQQ QR3, SPY QR2, and IWM near tag of HR1. SPY, DIA and NYA highs in March are not really above Feb highs. For SPY price a bit higher but close not; and clearly lower March highs for DIA and NYA.

QQQ remains above all pivots and above YR1. This seems important to watch as other 2018 leaders that were above YR1s have failed (EWZ, RSX, XBI and SMH). 

Simple bullish scenario is DIA lifting convincingly from MP and QQQ remaining above YR1. Bearish is DIA MP break/rejection and QQQ joining the other leaders below YR1.

SPX M: 10 trading days until Q & M end. That is a lot but Q chart already looks toppy so what happens with next monthly bar important and worth watching. 
SPX W: HR1 resistance.
SPY D: QR2 rejection and down all week.
ES D: Still above all pivots and MAs. A break under MAs would invest test of MP (MarchP) again.
SPX sum: One cannot be too bearish with ES chart still above all pivots and MAs. Yet "resistance matters" again - QR2 rejection 3/12-13 and down from there, with HR1 also pushing price down. The failure of 3/9 move to push up above the February high yet another message that trending environment of 2017 has changed to more range bound in 2018.  

18 5 SPX M.png
18 6 SPX W.png
18 7 SPY D.png
18 8 ES D.png

NDX W: HR2 high, back testing YR1 as possible support. RSI and BB divergences on M and W charts.
QQQ D: QR3 high looks like it for Q1. YR1 area important as other leaders have faded below YR1s. 

18 9 NDX W.png
18 19 QQQ D.png

W: Chopping sideways for 5 bars.
D: Friday close above MP, but considering the high and the close this is not really enough to say clear. 3/14 break, 3/15 MP resistance, 3/16 failed rally. 

18 20 DJI W.png
18 21 DJI D.png

W: High test near YR1 & HR1, but no significant selling.
D: QR1 acting as support so

18 22 RUT W.png

W: Chopping sideways.
D: Still above all pivots. 

18 24 NYA W.png
18 25 NYA D.png

USA main indexes

2018 is turning out to be quite different than 2017. In 2017, all 5 USA main indexes were above all pivots for the majority of the year. There was only 1 day that SPX closed below a QP. The YP and HP levels were not even touched. Obviously 2018 is a much different story. The end of January indexes reached YR1 and HR2 levels across the board, and those were seriously sold. After reaching major support levels - YP, HP and D200 and D100MAs on the main indexes -  there was a decent bounce. So far this has also failed at resistance in the form of NDX YR1, SPX and INDU monthly pivots. 

It is natural that after a massive trending move that the market should settle into a range. The USA main indexes cannot continue to power up outside quarterly Bollinger bands forever. It is these charts in particular that suggest limited upside and professional selling on rallies. So this year we have seen selling at resistance and pivots (again compared to 2017 when INDU melted up through yearly resistance without any selling at all, and any pivot touch was rare and a massive buy). The question is whether the dip buyers continue to prop up the market for an extended sideways period or if there will be a faster rush for exits. 

Current leaders QQQ and surprise IWM back above all pivots. NYA the laggard, below QP and MarP, reflecting weakness in global names. DIA well under MarP and won't recover so easily. SPY bang on its new monthly pivot. 

More bullish scenario for next week means rally above SPY MarP, QQQ pushing back towards highs and IWM continuing short squeeze. Bearish is SPY rejection from MarP and DIA testing QP, potential NYA HP break. 

SPX Q: This chart still the main concern; 4 weeks until close. Upside over.
SPX M: Down month so far, and nice rebound from 10MA.
SPX W: I don't think people really believe these pivot levels were established 12/31/2017 when looking at this chart. High HR2, low YP, 2nd high YR1. 
SPY D: Holding positive YTD at red line but under MarP. Note Feb rejection bang on MP 2/27+.
ES D: Friday could have been worse, but resistance at MarP and falling D20.
SPX sum: So far the high of the year is HR2 and the low is YP, both near exact. The lower high reached 2/27 was FebP and near HR1. Currently MarP is resistance and that level will be a key tell for the week ahead.  

3 3 SPX M.png
3 5 ESD.png

NDX Q: Still soaring outside the Q Bollinger band. 
NDX M: Massive rally from 10MA; down for March so far. 
NDX W: YR1 resistance 2nd time. But holding HR1 as support gives another chance at test. 
QQQ D: YR1 rejection pretty clear but maintaining above all pivots from 2/23 on. 
NQ D: Major support at rising D50, D10 and MarP. 
NDX sum: Comparatively much stronger. However, YR1 has acted as resistance twice. If MarP breaks then major high likely in. Above the MarP gives some chance at re-test.

3 10 QQQ D.png

INDU Q: Despites the drop still entirely outside the BB!
INDU M: Down for March.
INDU W: YR1 high, 2HP low, near HR1 lower high.
DIA D: FebP exact on the lower high. Below MarP and down for 2018. 
INDU sum: Despite the drop and not so far off lows, INDU is still entirely outside the Q BB. This limits upside on any bounce attempts and adds to risk of further declines. 

3 12 INDU Q.png

RUT Q: Doji bar forming at the top of the Q BB.
RUT M: Up for March so far, lifting from 10MA.
RUT W: YR1 high, YP support on weekly close. 
IWM D: Not giving up yet, reclaimed QP and above MarP (hard to see that but level 150.02).
RUT sum: Quarterly chart also limiting upside, but so far back above all pivots. 

3 16 RUT Q.png
3 17 RUT M.png

W: High of year on HR2, then YR1 rejection, YP low, so far holding HP.
D: Under MarP and QP, trying to hold HP. 

USA main indexes

USA main index leader NDX/QQQ recovered above all pivots convincingly on Friday. This shifts the market to a more bullish posture and re-test of highs on NDX seems likely. But we see breadth thinning out as IWM and NYA were barely higher on the week. MarPs in play from Wednesday will be a key tell; at current levels more USA main indexes will join NDX above all pivots, and then we'll see what happens with the lagging IWM and NYA.

SPX M: Massive rebound from first touch of 10MA since 11/2016. But expecting resistance at upper BB, now 2812, likely higher as March bar opens.
SPX W: HR2 top to YP low; now what? 
SPY D: 5 days stall on QR1, Friday finally cleared. 
Sum: Strong rebound continues and Friday's rally cleared some bearish concerns. Thinking that upper Bollinger bands on monthly and weekly chart likely resistance if tagged. 

24 3 SPX W.png
24 5 SPY D.png

NDX M: Massive rally from 10MA.
NDX W: Within reach of testing YR1 again.
QQQ D: Though FebP orange dots resistance for 4 days, holding HR1 as support also a tell. Back above all pivots on Friday and YR1 easily within reach.

24 7 NDX W.png

INDU W: YR1 high, HP low. 
DIA: Between levels. 

24 10 DIA D.png

RUT W: YR1 high to near YP low. Small advance for the week makes this more vulnerable. 
IWM D: Few days of struggle near the 2017 close level; more bullish to be in positive territory.

NYA W: About even from last week.
NYA D: Between levels; MarP on this will be a key tell.