Throughout Q2 we saw signs of professional selling with quarterly Bollinger band levels acting as resistance again and again on SPX, NDX YR1 acting as resistance for 3 weeks, and DJI (Dow Indu) falling back inside its Q band after a brief poke above.
However, NDX/QQQ blasted through its YR1 last week to join IWM above a yearly level, and high test and potential new highs seem easily within reach. SPY also above all pivots 'should' go for pivot resistance at HR1 for a decent top. DJI/DIA could move above all pivots by moving just a bit higher.
Bottom line is that although recognizing the bullish moves of 5/4-9 I have been skeptical of a move to new highs. Tech strength is proving me wrong. If a bearish scenario does play out it looks obvious that DJI and other international names will be the easier shorts.
SPX / SPY / ES
SPX Q: Band value 2747, quarterly close high 2742. Resistance or not?
SPX M: Held pullback to 10MA. So far nixing RSI divergence.
SPX W: Above all MAs with 10MA acting as support. Stuck at 61% Fib resistance from highs the last few weeks.
SPX W: Looking like move to HR in the works.
SPY D: Above all pivots with solid support at QP, JunP and the 5/29 low.
SPY 2H: Last 2 key lows highlighted in green. Unlike February and late March/early April lows, the two May lows are much more confident - price not even reaching support when it is scooped up and RSI bottoming very near 30 each time. Earlier lows broke and went below 30. Also note last week had two moves under the WP only to finish above and on a high.
SPX sum: Throughout Q2 I have thought resistance limited due to upper quarterly band and range bound market theme in general. However May played out quite bullish with two impressive holds of key support and June starting strong. Above all pivots and MAs on daily charts in all timeframes gives the bulls the benefit of the doubt - next higher level resistance target is 2776 SPX / 276.86 SPY.
NDX / QQQ / NQ
NDX Q: After Q1 toppy bar I never thought it would follow with another push outside the band but that is exactly what is happening so far.
NDX M: New highs easily within reach.
NDX W: Unlike SPX, NDX never tagged W50MA or lower band. Back above all MAs from the 4/30 bar.
NDX W: Blast through YR1 and soon at HR2.
QQQ D: Already at another cluster - HR2 and QR1, but blasted through YR1. 5/30 close above and 5/31 closed above by .02 were tells, as well as MayR1 acting as support since 5/9.
NQ D: 20MA acted as support next exact 2x.
QQQ 2H: Lastly time RSI fully OS (30 or lower) was 3/28. RSI OB here (70+) but with new highs so close seems more likely to ignore. Also note 5/30 comeback to quickly back above all pivots.
NDX sum: Blasted through YR1 after being stuck there since 5/10. Already at another cluster of HR / QR and then JunR just above.
DJI / DIA
DJI Q: Band value 24767, quarterly high above but price inside.
DJI M: 2 weak up moves from the 10MA.
DJI W: Below a falling 20MA.
DIA D: Under Q2P.
DIA 2H: DIA not staying above WP for much more than 2 weeks at a time.
DJI sum: Weaker in every respect. However a bit higher would resolve everything in bull favor by reclaiming QP.
RUT / IWM
Q: Also well outside the Q BB.
M: Near the upper band.
W: 2 3 weeks above YR1 HR1 cluster.
D: A lot of support below YR1 HR1 QR1 JunP but didn't participate much in Friday's party. A tell for June?
2H: Above WPs since the 5/4 move except 5/29 one day bear wonder.
Q: Still looks like pro selling.
M: Barely holding on to 10MA. Monthly 10MA important for some allocation models.
W: Has been able to hold YP or HP for 11 bars with only 1 break that immediately reversed!
D: Several breaks of D200MA, but only 2 days below the YP. Under QP, still above JunP which is about where the D200MA is now.