As of last week I thought bulls had the ball and next move would be to "higher end of recent ranges meaning MayR1 or maybe higher on the leaders."
So this played out, now what? Given daily Bollinger bands and current resistance levels in play - SPY MayR1, QQQ YR1, DIA MayR1, IWM cluster - we could easily see a reaction down. But if all 5 main indexes remain above all pivots then I would expect the pullback to be temporary and another move towards highs. If DIA breaks under its QP again I will change turn and start thinking about the chance of another key top - after all QQQ YR1 and IWM YR HR and QR cluster could be enough for a decent turn.
In sum, while last week was a higher confidence play for bounce, this week there is bit tougher judgment. Indexes are at resistance in the context of a bull move. The task is to judge the likely path - immediate clear (less likely to my eyes), pause or small pullback then clear (possible), or decent drop (also possible).
SPX / SPY / ES
SPX Q: Back to the upper BB currently 2746.
SPX M: Looking good with 10MA hold for 3 closed bars and also current May bar.
SPX W: Great looking hold of lower BB and rising 50MA; room to go up
SPX D: BB suggests limited upside or pullback before higher.
SPX W long term pivots: Key low bang on HP.
SPY D long term & medium term pivots: 2nd move above QP; currently near MayR1.
ES D: Back above all pivots and MAs except 100 as of Weds 5/9
Sum: Listing all the Bollinger band charts to show the conflict: monthly and weekly charts look great, but quarterly and daily both suggesting limited upside. The Pivotal Perspective is that bulls winning with 2nd move back above the QP last week. Near term resistance to watch is MayR1.
NDX / QQQ
NDX W: Testing YR1 again.
QQQ D: Led market with jump above all pivots on 5/4.
Strong tech often good for the market; testing YR1.
INDU / DIA
INDU W: HP on the recent low.
DIA D: Fractional clear of QP on 5/10 and higher 5/11; MayR1 resistance.
RUT / IWM
W: Key low in Q2 bang on HP 4/2, now testing YR HR QR combo.
D: Above all pivots every day on close for May. Major resistance cluster above.
NYA W: Held YP and launched above HP.
NYA D: Also back above all pivots last week.