Dollar and gold

I've written about gold here on 1/27 and followed up here on 2/1. I haven't talked about the currencies, but pivots work on these too. First, something very interesting has happened with the dollar just in the last few days. Here are the charts: first weekly with long term pivots (yearly & half-year) only, then the daily with the usual view of long term and medium term (quarterly & monthly) as well. 

DXY the dollar index has been entirely above its yearly pivot from mid August 2014, and in fact is the first touch of the level since then. During this time it has been mostly above its half year pivots as well, with a few breaks in 2015 2H that did recover and rally to 2HR1 exact on the highs. So from The Pivotal Perspective, this test of the YP is really important. Above the YP and we can think YR1 at 102.72; below and start thinking YS1 at 92.45.

Here's the daily view. The selling started with a rejection of the FebP. A break of the monthly pivot has happened several times last year, but the difference here is the very next day it broke through Q1P without any attempt to hold, and the 1HP didn't bounce either. Now the YP as I type is caving without any try. Next support is a long way down. 

Meanwhile, gold is following through on recent advances and doing the opposite, clearing its yearly pivot. Using the continuous contract below, you can see GC mostly below both the YP and HP since early 2013. There were a few breakout attempts that quickly failed. I'll address these soon in another post. 

Here's the daily view of the current G6 contract. Unlike the end of 2015, it has been above its monthly pivot in both January and February. Then it cleared the 1HP / Q1P combo. That looked like a failure but came back enthusiastically and cleared again. After a brief pause it has been off to the races. In pivots a lot of the time a second move is definitive, and in this case at the end of a long downtrend it took three tries to really clear and get moving up. 

So the big question here is whether this is normal pullback to support on DXY and another failed breakout attempt in gold, or whether we are seeing a real long term trend change. I don't know, but I do know where to watch to answer this question. DXY YP 96.48 and GC G6 YP 1137 (just continue to update on rollovers).