Weekly strategy update

Some charts on vehicles that I mentioned in the last weekly strategy report. Conclusions are obvious - USA reclaiming FebPs on SPY & DIA which is a mild positive. So my view of a Pivotal Portfolio is shifting a bit more bullish here. But a reclaim of a monthly pivot while being below the others is not the same as position long on an asset above all pivots (the only examples that I track this year have been TLT, GLD, GDX and BTCUSD). 

If you have been following along, there is  a speculative INDU / DIA position from 2/12 that is an easy hold and/or possible add (or SPY), and some smaller combo of the suggested emerging market vehicles RSX, EWZ, and EEM from 2/16 or what is left if you took some quick gains last week.

TLT is not getting hit too hard, but right now GLD looks more like rejection from YR1 area which, if appears this way into the close, I think is a profit taking signal on any add from 2/4-5. In addition, DXY has just held its YP and even reclaiming its 1HP which further pressures GLD.

SPY jumping above the FebP.

GC continuous contract making the rejection look clear (based on first hour, real judgment at the close), and this is really the 2nd time we are seeing selling from this YR1 area. 

Sure enough vehicles that led on the recovery of the FebPs are getting more pop on the bounce. RSX, EWZ and EEM here. Watch FebR1 on EWZ approaching soon.

Lastly BTCUSD had nice pop and already at the FebR1. Let's give this some time. So far pause no rejection despite DXY strength. If people want to get money out of China, a stable BTCUSD is definitely a way. So maybe there is another massive move on this. 

Interesting buy idea

Funny, I haven't looked at Bitcoin in months. Wait - i am not off my rocker. I'm just doing usual scans near the close for anything that has changed pivot status. I don't even look at the currencies every day, let alone BTCUSD. But check this out: 

Above YP which has clearly held as support several times
Recently above 2HP
Recently cleared Q1P on 2/14, along with FebP
Just held FebP as support for 2 days!

So, recent pivot status change to above all pivots! There is not many vehicles that qualify for this designation. Hold above the FebP and Q1P, cut on daily close below. 

To put the recent move in a longer context, look at the weekly chart. The times where BTCUSD has rallied above both the HP and YP have led to spectacular rallies in 2013. In 2014 and 2015 BTCUSD was below the YP, but in 2016 the YP has held and another launch could be underway. If not, it won't cost too much to find out.


Do pivots work on currencies? Yes!

DXY W with long term pivots. DXY lifted above its YP a few times in 2013 only to stall. But in 2014 it tried again and a tremendous move followed, with a key retest high bang on 2015 2HR1. Note this week's break of the 1HP and test of the YP at 96.48 - a huge level to watch going forward.

And here's the Euro, EURUSD. The break of the YP in July 2014 led to a huge drop. Like the DXY testing its YP, the EURUSD also tested its YP for the first time since July 2014 this week.

USDJPY was in the news this week. It has been completely above its yearly pivot since late 2012! But this week the YP broke for a second time, and that should be definitive this year. If YS1 / 1HS1 combo near 115 breaks, then next major support is 110-111.

And the AUDUSD has been completely below its YP since May 2013. China slowdown? Not a surprise here. As long as it stays under the long term pivots of 1HP .731 and YP .749, trend is down.

Lastly, do you think pro Bitcoin traders are using pivots? 2014 highs on the YP / HP combo, 2015 low on the 1HS1 exact and 2015 high very near the YP / 2HR3 exact, and recent support on the YP near exact. Hmm.