In the last Elliott wave update from 5/17, I thought we had seen the end of a weekly wave. but this turned out premature.
But the larger point remains - if this idea of structure is right, then upside is limited because following completion of weekly wave 3 is wave 4 pullback, then wave 5 to end the move from the 2016 low. If I am right about the monthly structure, the end of this weekly series will also be the end of the 2009 move. I know, bearish.
I can also acknowledge that 2013 was a huge breakout of multi year/decade range for SPX, and NDX followed in 2017. These moves might be stronger than E-wave idea that finishes in 2017-18. But this far my E-wave projections have mostly turned out pretty well.
March 2016 projected 2250-2500 SPX top 2017 Q2 to 2018 Q2, when SPX was at 2050 - ding!
Late June 2016 said "If all this is correct then we are about to get the last best move of the bull market over the next year or two" - ding!
January 2017 said: "According to this view, top callers are pre-mature here. Strength begets strength as Wall Street drools over tax cuts, stimulus, and money coming out of bonds. This is what euphoria looks like." - ding!
Early 2017 March said: "So, the issue here is even if we just saw a decent trading top, what is next is a wave 4 and this is more likely to be sideways and drawn out in time." - ding! SPX sideways without much damage for nearly 3 months as next move.
Mid March said: "Take note: if model is correct, the remaining up portions of this bull market are limited to: w5/W3 on weekly SPX chart; W5 on weekly SPX chart; Finito."
So here is the weekly structure with up portions in green. Not shown are W4 and W5 to complete.
Look at this, within the larger Wave 3, w5 subdivision = 61% of w1 nearly exact. These things happen!
If this idea is right, then the next moves are more like this:
Wave 4 would approximately match damage of W2 which at current highs projects to 2317, or about a -5% drop.