Some doodles

Feel free to completely ignore this one. 

I am not an Elliott wave person. But I have dabbled, as there are many sorts of things I have explored over the years. And it strikes me that SPX is playing out the archetypal pattern - quite well in fact!

W1 up
W2 pullback
W3 up that when strong (it was) sub-divides into 5
W4 down, often more choppy affair & drawn out in time; can replicate W2
W5 up
then major ABC correction follows, ie bear market 

First chart below the green lines are the up waves so W1, W3 and W5. The thinner green lines above W3 and the up portions of sub-divisions of W3. The red lines are the down portions, W2 and W4. 

It is quite interesting to note that W2 down was -296 points and W4 down was -324 points. In other words, W2 = W4 in price points, approximately. And as W4s are supposed to act, frustrating bulls and bears alike, a choppy affair where neither side gains much except for the most nimble players. It is also quite possible that W4 continues to pause and chop. But if this reading is correct, at some point we will see a W5 to significant new  highs. But when that ends, that is it for the 2009 bull market. 

Within W3, w1 and w5 also were quite close in terms of points, totaling 348 (w1) and 313 (w5).

Market structure fans already know that the W3 peak was 161% of the move from 2007H to 2009L - to the point. ( doesn't have a good snap to price so graph shows 2132 although correct number is in fact 2134.) So there is something to these ratios. 

So, stay with me here, we should see some structure relationship between W1 and W5. These can vary from a failed 5 stopping at 38% of W1, to a very exuberant blow-off of 161% of W1, but the most common would be 61% or 100%. 

So if that 1810 holds as the W4 low, then projecting W1 from there, gives is 2241 (let's just say 2250) at 61%, or 2509 (round to 2500) at 100%.

And lastly we add a time component with the same idea - W5 ideally equals 61% or 100% of W1. That takes us to June 2017 or April 2018 respectively.

We could get any combination of the price time targets, meaning it doesn't have to be 61% in price and 61% in time. It could be 100% in price and 61% in time or 61% in price and 100% in time. But basically this gives us an idea, if the classic patterns play out, of 2250-2500 Q2 2017 to Q2 2018 for a major top. 

But remember, if INDU drops back under its YP I scratch the bull alive and kicking idea!