Elliott wave doodles

I am not really an Elliott wave person but I have dabbled. Pivots are far superior because they are completely objective and simple - either the price is above or below. There are no alternative counts etc. But still like other market tools the Elliott wave can shed light on the phase of the market. 

For example, if the big picture idea in the linked post is correct, then we are entering W5 euphoria phase for the last big up move of the bull market. This means any yearly resistance levels or YP breaks especially in the preferred timing high window 2017-18 would could be significant stock exits.

But this post is about the medium term. It strikes me we are seeing the classic pattern play out from the February low, but in this post I wish to highlight two interpretations and give my reasons for the preferred version. 

A simple W1 up, W2 pullback, W3 up, W4 zigzag and W5 up is below. 

If this is correct we'd expect some price and ideally time relationships between W1 and W5. Starting with price like this, which shows W5 = 61% of W1 at 211.37. This is about where SPX and ES AprR1s are too. 

Then we can add time. Right now current W5 already exceeded 138% of W1 and near 161% which will be 4/21 at 11:30 2 hour bar. You could say ideal E-wave move based on this idea would be a tag of W1 = 61% at 211.37 at 161% in time at 4/21 11:30. 

But after all this I am going to say this is not my preferred count. Here is why. I think probably we are still seeing a sub-divided W3. So instead of looking for the 5 count W1 up, W2 down, W3 up, W4 down, W5 up to complete, followed by ABC down; we really should be trying to spot this:

W1 up impulsive
W2 correction measurable on pivots and or Fib relationships
W3 that subdivides w1 of W3 up, w2 of W3 pullback, w3 of W3 larger steady rally, w4 of W3 pullback, w5 of W3 up
W4 that ideally matches W2 in price, although frequently more drawn out in time
W5 up to complete, with some relationship to W1

If this idea is correct, w5 of W3 will ideally have relationship with w1 of W3, and it so happens we are bang on 100% here at 210.50. SPX AprR1 and ES AprR1 are very close. 

This would imply we are in ending stages of W3 here, followed by a larger drop, and then a W5 move for a more significant top. This would match pivots too - a trading top on the monthly resistance, and after a pullback, a move up to the more important quarterly, half-year and yearly resistance levels.