Check the tag for prior versions. As I continue in a scaled down manner, I won't be able to do the full sentiment analysis each week. But I will try to post when there is a sentiment extreme. Today I wish to point to two sentiment readings that are pushing towards extremes.
Daily and weekly put-call the lowest in nearly 2 years; this is quite optimistic! AAII managers top 16% percentile exposure on data from mid 2006, and this is more of an extreme considering most of these readings during seasonally strong November - February period. In other words, a pretty high reading for April.
I still prefer higher highs on the rally for a big top, as I'd rather see a tag of Q2R1, 1HR1 and YR1 levels, but the easy money from February - when we saw sentiment extremes on the other low side - has been made. With market participants so bullish, the market is more susceptible to a larger pullback or range bound digestion period.
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Below is a daily put-call chart with a 10MA in blue. This reached a very low level on 4/20/2016, in fact lower than any point since July 2014.
Here's the same chart including 2012-13, with just a few other dips below this level.
On a weekly basis the level is not quite as glaring, but still, near low areas for about the last 2 years!
Also, the AAII managers reported a jump to 82 exposure which is top 16% percentile of all readings from mid 2006. Also consider that a vast majority of these higher readings are during seasonally strong months of November, December. January and February. So, getting up there.