DIA and SOXX longs on the way up

From the start of the rally on 2/12 I have been recommending DIA (or INDU or YM take your pick).

And on 2/24 on playing the bounce scenario: "If so then way to do it is reduce on full safe haven positions if they show rejections from major resistance and put into the USA leaders DIA and SPY that are above the FebPs (obviously, only if that is the case)."

3/8, 3/9, 3/10 pointing out how DIA / YM holding YP already, the most bullish of the USA main indexes. 

Along with every weekly USA main index post after from 2/13 (just go to FAQ, put in USA main index and then use the tag feature to view them all) - I pointed out that INDU had held its YS1 (where others broke and recovered).

OK, DIA is not that big a deal compared to SPY as percents up from lows approximately the same. Actually by percentage gain IWM is up the most from the 2/12 low; but also most at risk to stall. If it is percentage up from lows you are after, then you had chances on oil, EWZ, RSX and EEM too!

But I would say DIA being the pivot leader has been much easier to hold the way up, and this counts as a psychological advantage. After clearing the FebP on 2/17, there was not 1 daily close below a monthly pivot! And despite the red bars 3/8-10, DIA was clearly holding its yearly pivot! Now today as I type it is soaring above its MarR2 as well! Just no reason to be reducing at any point yet on the rally. 

And here is SOXX idea from 3/1 as a way to shift portfolio more long even though already quite a bit up from lows: "Then easiest way to shift more bullish was to cut FXI shorts, add on SOXX above its 1HP and possibly QQQ above its YP, although that level is a bit suspect."

Now this has mattered quite a bit. QQQ from 3/1 close to today as I type it is only up 1.5%. SOXX up nearly 5.5%! If you wanted in on the rally and get back into tech, then QQQ is middling, IBB is a disaster, and SOXX is leaving them in the dust. 



"Bull alive and kicking" with INDU above 17138 from 3/12

Some good old fashioned human judgment and pivot analysis here. On 2/11-12, I noticed that of the 5 main USA indexes, SPX, NDX, INDU, RTY and NYA, INDU held up the best. So that in addition to a VIX and VXD reversal signal from major pivots, timing window 2/11-15, bearish some bearish sentiment extremes, and most especially the amount of indexes all holding yearly levels, led to the speculative buy call 2/12 on both DIA and oil. 

I called it "speculative" for the simple reason that nothing was above any pivots yet, and my preferred method is to long above pivots and avoid, hedged or short below. Later after the shuffle at the end of February, INDU / DIA / YM was still the leader and so first choice. Last week still the leader, with DIA & YM clearly holding their YP level for 5 days *before* the big jump on 3/11. 

This wasn't the case last year or even 2014; NDX was usually the leader (of these 5 majors; IBB even better). But this year IBB is getting crushed and dragging down NDX. So that is why I shifted with the post on 3/12 - if the leader INDU is strong and holds levels, bull is alive. Other analysts are chiming in now after the jump above the D200 MA and breadth etc, but really DIA has been nothing but incredible from 2/24 and then especially from 3/1. 

From 3/12 Bull vs Bear post:

"But now it may be time to shift tune. INDU / DIA / YM has been the pivot leader on the rally. [...] INDU was the first cash index to close above its FebP (fractionally on 2/17) with others still below, and likewise the first to close above a long term pivot on 3/4 above its 1HP, where the others hadn't done that yet. And really YM and DIA were the best tells last week, clearly holding major support before the big jump at the end of the week. On Friday both SPX and INDU leaped above all pivots on Friday, but with INDU the current leader the market call here is:

Bull alive and kicking above 17138 (the highest of the INDU pivots, the Q1P) and still more likely than bear with INDU above its YP at 17048."