3/1/2016

Wow. Going back to bounce scenario (ie trimmed safe havens, adding longs DIA & SPY above their FebPs) last week not a mistake!

As I noted in the blog today in 2 separate posts, TLT literally the only asset class below its MarP. So better to reduce on that somewhat. Then easiest way to shift more bullish was to cut FXI shorts, add on SOXX above its 1HP and possibly QQQ above its YP, although that level is a bit suspect.

2 TLT long, still lots of gains on these entries
3 GLD long, ditto; hold above 115.61
3 DIA long from 2/12, great buy
5 DIA SPY longs from last week, right idea! 
2 SOXX or QQQ longs today, buying leaders above major pivots, SOXX long valid above 1HP
1 bitcoin from 2/16, doing fine
1 DXY long or EUR short valid above / below all pivots 

25% safe havens (down from 30%), 0 shorts (down from 10%), 50% long (up from 40%), 2 mostly uncorrelated currency trades at 10%, 3 units open. Too bad I cut the EEM vehicles and added back strictly on USA indexes (because VTI above its FebP and ACWI not) but I'll keep those in mind going forward.

DIA tagged its 1HP today, and soon some indexes will be testing very crucial areas that will tell us whether correction over and bull market can advance on its merry way, or if defensive positioning is still warranted. 

INDU / DIA / YM 1HP YP combo (DIA will test first)
SPX / SPY / ES 1HP / YP combo (again SPY will test first with ES not far behind)
I'll do a separate blog post on this tomorrow. 

Note, if markets lower the first to break its MarP and return to status of "below all pivots" and thus first choice short will be oil.