Readers of the weekly summary Total market view posts know that is where I am trying to tie different things together to understand the most likely path forward for markets, or at least know the signposts for meaningful action for the week ahead.
Elements of the Total market view are:
This means across the board so USA indexes, safe havens, sectors, global stocks, currencies & commodities). Trying to cover the major tradeable asset classes through ETFs but obviously scratching the surface here.
RSI, Bollinger bands, MACD (tweaked settings), Elliot wave, advance decline volume difference, occasionally others in the bag of tricks
Valuation & fundamentals
I've been tracking the 12 month forward P/E from the beginning of this site with a few permutations. Currently favored version is the 10 period MA of Thomson Reuters data that I enter into spreadsheet weekly
Not really an issue until we see low/high sides or fully on extremes, which I define as 10th / 90th percentile.
I don't mention this proprietary work in progress model too much, but it used to be more of what I focused on for the fund. I persist in a skeletal version due to events like the recent safe haven top, only 1 day off from timing window specified in advance!
Recently we had an example of several of these coming together for the 4/18 safe haven top. When all of the elements of The Pivotal Perspective come together there is a much more significant chance for a meaningful turn in markets.
GLD Q2R1 exact
TLT AprR2 & Q2R1 slight overshoot then fade
AGG YP / 1HP Q2R1 / AprR1 area
VIX up to 2HP 4/13, then also at Q2R1 4/18-19
RSIs (other technicals)
Highest daily RSIs on all of these since
Not a pure hit, but enough bearish sentiment for stocks (ie tends to be bullish safe havens) reached early April.
4/19-20 listed as "positive for safe havens" from 4/9 Total market view.
Key high 4/18 GLD (highest closing high), TLT (price & close high), and AGG (also price & close high) - so basically 1 day miss from timing specified in advance.
The combination of all these factors combined is why I mentioned possibility of key safe haven top as soon as 4/20 Daily comment: "Tech and semiconductors both back above all pivots as AGG has faded. This is very bullish, and given daily RSIs and long term levels it is possible that some safe havens (AGG, LQD, MUB) just made a very key turn for the year."
And then echoed this in 4/22 Safe haven post: "TLT sum - daily RSI highest in months, rally to Q2R1 area and AprR2, plus weekly BBs, has potential to be a key top."
From now on when I see a turn like this, I'll call it TMV (Total market view) special market turn. Ideal is all 5 components participating, but mostly it will be in varying degrees.