While I used to do a full sentiment analysis weekly while working a fund, these days I glance at it and bring it up when more important.

Sentiment extremes in August and December 2016 were part of accurate top calls. In late February readings were not quite as toppy as December, but put-call at low areas and NAAIM also at extremes. So 2 of 4 seemed to do the trick.

But now after a relatively mild decline we are seeing some readings that are decently bearish. If crowd is already bearish after 3 weeks and ~2% drop, then further declines just might not get very far. 

Consider the only handful of days since 2016 where daily put-call 10MA has been higher than its recent level reached on 4/4. 

8 50 put-call D.png

But when I saw ISEE my jaw dropped - 28% bulls! Of all readings since 2010, that is 84% percentile LOW end. 39% bears are 13th percentile, and bull-bear spread is about the same. 

So we have 2 of 4 readings showing decently low readings. NAAIM has gone from wildly bullish to middling, and just to confuse things a bit ISE (non pro options) gave a high spike reading on 3/31.