Mostly the ideas in the weekly strategy sum are enough to keep you busy. This is going along with the move in oil today possibly back above its Q2P.
TPP picked off the key low in oil and didn't start saying think about locking in some gains until the second week of March (search on tags). The initial plan was to watch reaction on the Q1P either current or CL1 contract, that the Q1P on CL1 was 2 day weak clear and rejection. That was the trigger to take most gains. But I also thought oil would be good to hold a runner unit above its Q2P, but I was thinking on its current contract. Well that didn't work as it broke down without any bounce. So this was a cut and reverse short. Although I did mention CL1 Q2P had to break for larger position and that held. So really CL1 is giving the best signals, and maybe I should start weighting that as indicator from here.
I didn't like the short setup on the daily chart (CL K) and kept to 1 unit (my base = 20 with 5 or so margin units 125% exposure). Sure enough, oil (CL K) may recover its Q2P again today as the CL1 Q2P held on the low yesterday. I already suggested to watch this for a cut and reverse long. And again to repeat, low was on CL1 Q2P! I just needed to factor this in more in the decision making process. Right idea, wrong vehicle with the CL K contract.
Today I am also watching XLE which will move with oil. RSX and EWZ already had huge moves and will be subject to more profit taking. XLE is holding positive on the year and may clear its AprP. If this happens on daily close good r/r buy setup. Although some of my filters and signs to not take or take small would be a weak up bar with low volume above the level. Of course, a rejection of the AprP and negative on the year would suggest drop to Q2P, but I am not so keen on shorting oil this year. It has been down for 1.5 years, c'mon, damage should be mostly done.