Weekly strategy sum

If following along, you came into last week solidly long with DIA & SOXX positions as early as 2/12 up through 3/11 with SOXX jumping above its 1HP and DIA lifting from its YP 3/4-11. You might have also had some small emerging market positions via EEM first recommended on 2/16 and/or runner units in EWZ & RSX. Lastly you had a decent chunk of GLD/GDX first suggested end of January with adds early February. I have shuffled the adds (ie out then back in) and they haven't done much for a while. 

There were a few shorts in past weeks that were taken with idea of quick hedges that were quickly out - SPY short small loss; VI long worked very well for 1 day as planned; TLT long for scratch exit looking like mistake; XLF short small gain or scratch; and if short FXI as hedge on EEM then you would be out of that too based on Friday's hold of AprP by EEM and FXI. 

GLD saw 2 days of selling from its YR1 level 3/30-31, and I did say in last week's post that would be condition for a reduction, ie take some gains. DXY is weak below all pivots so it may still pay to hold a runners portion of GLD/GDX above its Q2P. Given the very good first entries and monthly charts I think probably better to do that. 

If you went with the bullish scenario the easy choice would have been to be adding tech ie QQQ longs, although I didn't spell that out in advance. If GLD reduction then there are still some units free for next idea. A lot of markets are between pivots right now, or rallying into levels while daily chart overbought making it a tougher setup (ie, EEM, RSX). 

I have been pointing out possible short on NKY with break of YS1 for weeksUnless you are some institution it is unlikely you are trading NKY directly; EWJ is below all pivots as of 4/1/2016 and not much risk to hold that. I am not saying this a huge position, more like an odd exception to USA strength. But why not 1-2 units of index that is among weakest in world right now from the Pivotal Perspective? Even Shanghai and FXI are above AprPs. 

Oil via CLK closed pennies below its Q2P of 36.89, while CL1 is still above Q2P of 35.43. If CLK looks like 36.89 resistance then that is a close of any runner longs, more caution on remaining EWZ / RSX units if owned, and possible short setup as it will be below all pivots. A break of CL1 would confirm the short idea and be a possible add.

And how could I pass on TLT long, again above all pivots as of 4/1/2016 with clear hold of AprP? To be honest I thought we would see some institutional re-bal drop on TLT early in Q2 but per pivots this still looks quite fine. If USA stock indexes work off overbought conditions then TLT may go higher. 

What are not good setups right now: 
IWM short, no resistance level and dropping onto AprP support then Q2P support under that.
XLF shorts, ditto.
IBB short, above AprP.
FXI also above AprP and then Q2P, although in general weaker than EEM and can be used as hedge.
PIN long above AprP and Q2P but below long term levels, why buy mixed condition when TLT is above all pivots? 
Other USA mains (SPY, QQQ, DIA) decently above support and not near any resistance yet, except next weekly levels. 

Maybes to watch:
Shanghai below Q2P so that is possible short if we saw that tag and act as resistance.
DAX holding Q2P by a few points, would not take much for break below all pivots to join NKY with this status.
Oil as above if break of Q2P then below all pivots.