From Where is market going post 3/26:
"OK, so bull case is safe havens continuing to fade from YR1 levels, stocks joining VIX on the rally with more indexes clearing long term levels. If this happens NDX will clearly hold YP and COMPQ will join NDX above the level, and NYA clears 1HP at least. Globally EWZ, RSX and then EEM likely to clear long term levels first.
Bear case is a return of safe haven trade, VIX up, and a fade of the the few indexes that are above YPs. If this happens NDX will break down, NYA look like rejection, and likely oil down that will drag down RSX and EWZ as well.
Right now the thing that strikes me as most odd is how low all the VIX vehicles have gotten while safe havens still up there and most stock indexes still long term downtrends. I feel like this should resolve in one way or the other in coming weeks, ie VIX jump as stocks drop or fade in safe havens as stocks rally. I should also add that I like VIX very much as an indicator and right now it looks quite healthy ie, pointing to further stock rally."
TLT rallied but GLD and GDX but struggled at YR1s
NDX clearly held YP; that was the big tell, see chart below with direct hold of the level and massive buying, very large range blue (up) bars
COMPQ joined NDX above its YP as well
NYA had 1 day close above its 1HP but fell back, then rallied back near the level on Friday
EWZ closed above YP, RSX closed just below YP but continued to hold 1HP, and EEM closed above its 1HP for 3 days despite opening well below on 4/1
So bull scenario most items met! I didn't have a list of adjustments because the suggested portfolio was already pretty long combined with GLD/GDX. I've been recommending mostly longs with exception of a few very quick hedges / shorts from the 2nd time above FebPs in late February, and pointing out Dow strength very frequently since then. But if you wanted to add long exposure then the thing to do was buy something lifting from a pivot that wasn't overbought yet; ie NDX / QQQ the obvious choice. I suppose possible add on EEM though that has been quite overbought several times recently. EWZ and RSX more subject to oil move and oil hanging by a thread. More on that in the next strategy report.