Wouldn't we all like to know that!?
Major USA indexes above YPs
INDU, SPX, NDX (NDX barely)
Minor USA indexes above YPs (there are others that I am not tracking)
Global indexes above YPs (again there maybe country specific ETFs that I am not tracking)
(EWZ and RSX were above recently for a few days then fell back under)
Safe haven assets above YPs
TLT, GLD, GDX
VIX and related VXN, VXD, VXR, VBEM (emerging mkts VIX index)
Under all long and medium term pivots!
Major USA indexes below YPs
COMPQ, RTY, NYA
Minor USA indexes below YPs
IBB, XLF, XLE, HYG, USO/CL, XIV
Global indexes below YPs
DAX,/EWG, NKY/EWJ, SHC (Shanghai), FXI, EEM, Nifty/PIN, RSX, EWZ (see note above)
OK, so bull case is safe havens continuing to fade from YR1 levels, stocks joining VIX on the rally with more indexes clearing long term levels. If this happens NDX will clearly hold YP and COMPQ will join NDX above the level, and NYA clears 1HP at least. Globally EWZ, RSX and then EEM likely to clear long term levels first.
Bear case is a return of safe haven trade, VIX up, and a fade of the the few indexes that are above YPs. If this happens NDX will break down, NYA look like rejection, and likely oil down that will drag down RSX and EWZ as well.
Right now the thing that strikes me as most odd is how low all the VIX vehicles have gotten while safe havens still up there and most stock indexes still long term downtrends. I feel like this should resolve in one way or the other in coming weeks, ie VIX jump as stocks drop or fade in safe havens as stocks rally. I should also add that I like VIX very much as an indicator and right now it looks quite healthy ie, pointing to further stock rally.