Valuation and fundamentals

Check valuation tag for prior versions. From WSJ each Friday

SPX reached 17.49x forward earnings. 17x support 2014, 18x resistance 2133. 
NDX 18.54x forward earnings, 18x support 4400 and 19x resistance 4644.
INDU 16.69 forward earnings, 16x support 17056 and 18x resistance 18122.
RTY 17.10 forward earnings, so on a level to watch. if higher 18x 1182.

It seems possible that we see SPX 18x again, especially if election uncertainty matters continue to diminish. A valuation level and major pivot increases the chance of a major top like SPX 2/11 low likely near 15x forward earnings was a big low. Although I wasn't tracking this measure at the time; that is the likely estimate assuming the index did not have a massive change in earnings estimates. The May 2015 highs on SPX was very near 18x as well. 

Here's the current link to Citigroup Economic Surprise Index put out by Dr. Yardeni. Though the slope is what matters, this has been negative nearly all of 2015 and 2016. This played into the USA range bound action and corrections during this period. For a real bull run to new highs across indexes we will likely need to see this push into decent positive territory. 

For now the sum view of both of these is that market while not extremely expensive is getting up there, with almost no economic surprises to upside. While momentum may carry markets higher, some type of range and digestion period seems the more likely scenario.