Very quick. Last week's bullish scenario: "AprPs on RTY / IWM and NYA hold as the low, COMPQ holds its YP, up from there."
And that's just about what happened, the RTY / IWM & NYA AprPs were the key pullback lows. COMPQ broke its YP fractionally and recovered, and NQ futs held near exact.
Last week: 2 strong, 1 strong but testing; 1 mixed, 1 TBD-
This week: 4 strong, 1 mixed.
The difference is tech set tested and held YPs, and NYA jumped above its YP for the first time this year. Bullish developments on 2 major indexes does not happen every week.
Bullish: NYA holds YP 10302, COMP clears 1HR1 6311 (the only pivot resistance nearby on any of these indexes, see Dow set for details).
Bearish: COMP 1HR1 rejection, NYA break of YP.
Chop is the worst of the method but it can happen. A move above followed by a move back below and a rejection can be as bearish as a breakdown that recovers like several indexes on the 1/20 and 2/11 lows. But until that happens, markets are quite bullish here with a YP test and hold last week in the tech set and a YP clear from NYA. This a big deal and view is more bullish from here. Whatever other concerns may be (valuation, RSI, seasonality, etc), we should see more indexes at pivot resistance OR a fade of NYA back under its YP to change our minds.
SPX / SPY / ES
These continue in quite healthy manner above all pivots. After recovering the FebP on all vehicles 2/24-25 there have been very few days with bearish conclusions. April completely above its pivot so far, and we should see pivot resistance for any significant top.
NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
COMPQ and NQ both successfully tested and held YPs last week which is bullish, as the others in this tech set are comfortably above YPs too. The low was within 2 NQ points of the level with a crystal clear hold. It is a bit of extra work to check the cash indexes, ETFs and futures but these are the kinds of days that show why I do this. If you looked at COMPQ alone you might have gotten more bearish on the 1 day slight break.
INDU / COMP / DIA / YM
I've recently started including the COMP in this group too and pivots look crystal clear. This index is the only one showing any concern on the rally because it has already reached major resistance 1HR1, and small blue bars with RSI divergence invite selling. Watch that level this coming week, 6311. Otherwise INDU / DIA / YM look great and should reach monthly resistance at least.
RTY / IWM / TF
The only main index below YPs, but quite healthy gains since holding YS2 on the low. Low of month on AprP exact on both RTY and IWM. If IWM can go positive on the year (red line) then that will bring even more buying.
NYA / VTI
NYA jumped above its YP for the first time all year - very bullish, but needs to maintain. So 10302 needs to hold from here for stronger bull case. Low on NYA AprP near exact, dip below and no close below on 4/7. VTI similar but different broad ETF already stronger above all pivots.