SPY, TLT and GLD monthly pivots only shown below with no other levels at all. Obviously this is not a standalone, but we can view this as a piece of the puzzle. Sometimes there is chop, sometimes crystal clear moves. We are looking for the latter while being alert for the former. Detailed comments for SPY:
August - break, recovery, break, recovery, 3rd break was IT
September - started below, resistance several days, one recovery, next break tradable swing short
October - recovery on first trading day and off to races
November - exact low of month
December - started above, break, recovery, break and drop, slight recovery not clear, another drop, clear resistance 12/29
January - opened below and slam
February - 1 day above, break and tradable short, then recovery and hold, bit higher. PS, the 2/11 low was on an S1 but for sake of clarity not showing the R / S levels on this chart.
With that in mind we will have March pivots in play starting Tuesday. If SPY opens above it can hold as support and go higher, or break for a short. Similar idea for all other asset classes (TLT, GLD, oil, currencies, etc). Worst case in this method is when it chops which is why best positioning takes into account the other levels, as well as some supplemental factors like pivots on VIX. Then those who prefer can add RSI, volume, etc.
Note TLT mostly above its monthly pivot for 3 months, with January and February of 2016 particularly strong. At some point we will see another test of the pivot.
GLD also completely above pivots for 2 months straight; but this was after a long period of being mostly below all pivots for quite some time.